Game On: Queensland’s Golden Suburbs Revealed

EXCLUSIVE?PHIL BARTSCHFRI ?16 SEP 22 ?The Urban Developer

They are Queensland’s so-called “Olympic suburbs” where property prices are predicted to be supercharged in the wake of the world’s largest sporting event in 2032.

Within a year of the Olympic flame being extinguished, median house prices are forecast to push into the $1 million to $2 million range in many of the areas and, in some, rise well into the $2 million to $3 million realm—and potentially beyond.

But while a handful of the 14 key locations are already limbering up from a residential development perspective, in the other areas there are little or no preparations for a gold medal-winning run to capitalise on the expected price growth.

“There’s definitely certain areas where there’s very little development about to happen … and what we’re basically saying is this is where the opportunities are at the moment,” PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo says.

Among those areas—all listed in a new PRD report—are the Brisbane suburbs of Tennyson, Herston and Chandler, Twin Waters and Alexandra Headland on the Sunshine Coast, and the Scenic Rim’s Beaudesert.

One year on from Brisbane’s successful bid, the report outlining south-east Queensland’s future housing supply with a view to the Olympics indicates: “Existing 2032 Games residential supply needs further development when compared to other Olympics.

“Previous Olympics have injected housing supply into highly demanded markets alleviating housing affordability.

“Now is a golden opportunity to harness the potential of creating a well-informed?housing supply legacy?that targets a range of demographic needs,” it says.

Mardiasmo, who also has a chair at the table of the?Brisbane Olympics legacy committee, says the data clearly shows where the opportunities currently lie and residential developers should be making their move sooner rather than later.??

“If you look at some of these areas identified as Olympic suburbs like Tennyson and Chandler there’s zero, nothing going in,” she told?The Urban Developer.

“Of course, we still don’t know what will be the future supply for 2027 onwards … but you kind of want to be hitting it now, when there is that lower price point and affordability level so that you can capitalise on it later.”

According to the report, the multiplier effect of the Brisbane Olympics “will be large” in comparison to the Sydney 2000 Games.

“Sydney has become a brand, therefore Brisbane will follow suit,” it says.

“Hosting the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games will create an Olympic legacy. This will ensure international recognition of the city, and increase migration and tourism from other nations.”

Employment opportunities—one of the main ingredients to property price growth—also will rise leading to greater purchasing power. As well, increased population growth combined with the current lag in housing supply could result in even further price growth.

The report says the Olympics and other international events have had long-term effects on host cities, with “a strong tendency for housing supply and demand to increase, leading to healthy price growth”.

Its data shows that in the year post-event to Sydney’s 2000 Olympics, Brisbane’s staging of?Expo ‘88 and 2014 G20 Summit, the average median house price growth between all three events was 14.3 per cent.

“Applying this to 2022 median house prices results in many suburbs becoming $1 million?areas, such as Woolloongabba, South Brisbane, Herston, Spring Hill and Twin Waters. Many other areas come close, such as Tennyson and Broadbeach,” it says.

As another indicator, the report also applies the 111.6 per cent median house price increase in South Bank and surrounding suburbs from the decade prior to and the year after (2003-2015) hosting the G20 Summit to key 2032 Olympic suburbs.

It calculates that such growth would see Olympic suburbs including Hamilton and Chandler breaking the $4 million median price mark, Spring Hill nudging $3 million and currently affordable key locations like Ipswich, Redland Bay and Coomera cracking $1 million.

Future supply data in the report has been compiled from the latest records of residential development plans and approvals over the four-year period to 2026 in Olympic zones and areas earmarked for major infrastructure investment.

“Known residential development from 2022-2026 suggests a greater emphasis on apartments and units,” it says.

The data indicates a pipeline of 9589 new homes (apartments-units, townhouses, dwelling and lots) for the Brisbane local government area, 16,945 for the Gold Coast and 6520 for the Sunshine Coast.

Of all the Olympic suburbs Broadbeach, Coomera, Ipswich, Redland Bay, South Brisbane and Woolloongabba account for the lion's share of future residential supply in the key locations.

The release of the report follows the Queensland government calling a?housing summit in October?in a bid to address critical housing affordability and supply issues across the state.

“I think the housing summit has come at a really critical time because the need is dire and it will be great for the short-term solutions,” Mardiasmo says.

“But when it comes to housing I think we need to play not just the short-term game but the long-term game, particuarly a post-Olympics strategy, so it kind of works hand-in-hand.”

Not only are the Olympics estimated to deliver an $8.1-billion boost to the state’s economy but figures from previous Games also show it will fuel a housing supply boom.

In the year after the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics a total of 5632 apartments were added to the city’s supply and within five years that is expected to rise to 9777 apartments as well as 1637 other dwellings. The London Olympics, staged a decade ago, injected an additional 4500 apartments to the city’s stocks.

But Mardiasmo is quick to point out Queensland is lacking a definitive housing strategy and not all Games have successfully managed the opportunity.

“At the moment, it’s still quite an abstract plan,” she told?The Urban Developer.

“If we're going to spend billions of dollars putting on an Olympic event, or any event really, you want something that can last, a legacy that can be used over and over again … the gift that keeps on giving.

“And so, I think we're at that critical juncture right now.

“We still don’t have a definite strategy when it comes to what will happen to housing after the 2032 Olympics.

“I mean, yes, the Olympics is still 10 years away, but you can’t make the plan after it finishes. It’s something we really need to start bedding down now.

“Previous Olympics have proven that they can benefit housing supply if it’s done properly.

“But, you know, if it's not managed properly, look at Rio and Athens where the majority of the created supply was abandoned due to a lack of planning and management.”

Unlike the Sydney 2000 Games, there are no plans to use modular or relocatable housing during the Brisbane Olympics.

The Queensland government is focused on leveraging the Olympics to accelerate delivery of existing long-term plans in Brisbane’s Northshore-Hamilton area, amending the plans to include new residential, commercial, retail, and mixed-use development.

It will be the site of the athletes’ village and there are plans to repurpose it to provide a diverse residential offering including retirement living, aged care, social and affordable housing, student accommodation, build-to-rent, and market accommodation.

In total this new land supply is expected to catalyse $500 million in private investment and create 1600 construction jobs.

Increased hotel accommodation is also already in the works for Woolloongabba, Mooloolaba and Broadbeach comprising a combined 630 rooms.

But Mardiasmo says more is needed.

“We can definitely learn from all of the other Olympics how is it that they created a strategy that, like I said, keeps on giving when it comes to housing supply.

“At the moment, we know there's a lot of construction challenges and projects are not easy to create.

“But from a developer's perspective, the data in the report shows that the opportunities are there, and where they might be, to capitalise on the Olympics, which will create more growth and increase demand for housing.

“Already, with interstate and international migration, Queensland's population growth is not slowing down anytime soon and our housing supply is lagging.

“That's a worry especially as we get closer to the Olympics and with the demand we know is coming when it finishes.

“So, I think more direction is needed in terms of what we need to create and what we're going to create. We have to plan smart.”

AUTHOR Phil?Bartsch The Urban Developer - Writer