As the game of basketball continues to evolve, the formula to win remains the same.
A few nights ago, I went to the park to play a few pickup games and get some much-needed cardio. I typically go to this park as there are multiple courts to play in. As I waited for my turn to play, I noticed the game that was going on in the other court. One team was composed of young and fast players, who seemingly only shot 20 feet away from the rim. Their opponent was composed of weekend warriors who were sluggish but often shot much closer to the basket. As their game went on, I noticed one variable that led the weekend warriors to what I thought was a surprising win. The older team understood the importance of rebounding and proper defensive sets. Analytics has played a role in the evolution of basketball as most general managers are shifting their thought process to see the statistics. Yet, when it matters most, what are the statistics that count?
The 2017-2018 NBA season was one to remember. The Golden State Warriors were a fast-paced and efficient roster lead by Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. Their regular-season numbers were off the charts, averaging 114 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. The Warriors lead the league in three-point percentage, shooting 40 percent as a team. Yet, they were a middle of the pack team when it came to rebounding and defense. During the Warrior’s championship run, they put up 110 points per game while shooting 48 percent. They were able to maintain their regular-season points per game average and percentage but dropped off to 35 percent from the three-point range. Out of the sixteen teams in the postseason, the Warriors ranked 10th in three-point shots made. Think about this, when it mattered most, Golden State was not jacking up 3’s and making them at a 40 percent clip, how were they winning?
The Warriors and Steve Kerr realized the importance of defense and rebounding during their championship run. In the postseason, the Warriors ranked 2nd in defense and 4th in rebounding among the sixteen other teams. The Warriors allowed 100 points per game, while during the season they allowed 108 points per game. Goldens State is known for its finesse and evolutionary basketball style that has won them countless games. When it is crunch time, however, the Warriors reverted to what wins’ championships, which is an elite defense and rebounding.
To further test this notion, lets review last year’s NBA champion, the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors had a great defensive team throughout the regular season and put up roughly 114 points per game on 47 percent shooting. However, they were a middle of the pack team in rebounding but a top 5 team in three-point percentage at 38 percent from 3-point range. Things changed abruptly for the raptors in the postseason as they slowed their pace and averaged under 106 points per game. Raptors had poor shooting from beyond the arc, shooting under 33 percent as a team. The team has declined in all analytic variables that seem to matter in the modern NBA, yet still won the championship. Raptors were good all season at defense but still allowed 108 points per game. During the postseason, the Raptors defense was elite and allowed under 100 points per game. Also, Raptors locked in and made sure to get rebounds, specifically, offensive rebounds.
Analytical shooting percentage is crucial, specifically three-point shots made. The idea that shooting 30-35 three-pointers per game will increase your chances of winning games is laughable. Look at the Houston Rockets and their approach to small ball, which has never lead them to the NBA finals. Value is not a point per game percentage, it is situational, and it depends on the player and coach IQ to understand the game plan and in-game alterations. Analytics is a valuable tool to understand tendencies and forecast what can happen. Winning starts and ends with experience and understanding of every possibility that can occur in a particular play or instance. I have always said basketball is not a physical game but a mental one, do not make rash decisions, instead realize you can only move step by step.