The Gambler's Paradox

....Disturb us, Lord, to dare more boldly,

To venture on wider seas

Where storms will show your mastery;

Where losing sight of land,

We shall find the stars.

Disturb Us, Lord, Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake

Part 1: In the beginning,...

One warm morning, with the scent of freshly brewed coffee in the air, I found myself at my blue station, a term I use for places where I sit down to focus on my dreams. That day, I was at the Makerere Incubation & Incubation Centre (MIIC), it is a business incubation for technology-enabled ideas and innovations from Universities and SMEs across all sectors, part of Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda. The room was dimly lit, and the hum of fluorescent lights filled the air. Although the work environment wasn't the best, it provided stable internet access and a nearby restaurant that served mouthwatering, spicy dishes.

At 10 AM, as the sound of chattering students and passing motorcycles outside the window grew louder, I stumbled upon something truly exciting while scrolling through my LinkedIn feed. There was an ongoing boot camp at another center called the Innovation Village. This wasn't any ordinary boot camp, though; an extraordinary team of researchers and educators from 美国麻省理工学院 - 斯隆管理学院 and 美国哈佛商学院 , had come to deliver it. The Market-Creating Innovation (MCI) Bootcamp is an eight-session curriculum designed to empower emerging market innovators with principles and frameworks necessary to create new markets that make products affordable. The boot camp curriculum is anchored around the principles outlined in The Prosperity Paradox: How Innovation Can Lift Nations Out of Poverty, written by the late Harvard Business School professor Clayton M. Christensen.?

Anyone that knows me well can tell how I became captivated by the works of Clay Christensen, a true hero of mine. His exceptional life, from his missionary work to his groundbreaking theories, left a lasting impression on me.

Clay Christensen's influence reached far beyond the realm of academia. His dedication to missionary work exemplified his commitment to making a positive impact on people's lives. This aspect of his life only heightened my admiration for him, as it showcased his genuine desire to contribute to the betterment of society.

It was through a series of YouTube lectures that I first discovered Christensen's teachings on the theory of disruptive innovation. The more I listened, the more I found myself drawn to his ideas and their potential to drive transformative change. His ability to break down complex concepts and make them accessible to a wider audience made his lectures all the more engaging.

Christensen's work has had a profound impact on my own aspirations and pursuits. His dedication to innovation and the betterment of society serves as a constant reminder of the potential we all possess to make a difference, so when I heard that people who were closer to him had traveled to my proximity, I couldn't settle.

A series of similar bootcamps were being hosted in multiple countries across Africa during 2021, designed to be dynamic and practical and best suited for early-stage entrepreneurs who are in the process of piloting or refining an idea that seeks to solve a problem for a majority of people in a region.

With excitement, I packed my laptop and journeyed to another incubation hub called the Innovation Village in Ntinda, a distance of 10 kilometers from my current location. Traffic was heavy, and the air was thick with exhaust fumes. The cacophony of car horns, vendors hawking their wares, and distant music playing on radios filled my ears. I managed to get a boda boda (motorcycle) and reached the Innovation Village. The atmosphere at the coworking space was buzzing with energy, and the scent of ambition and creativity was palpable. I knew I had to find a way in.

Before reaching here, I had sent several messages to one Efosa Ojomo – the Director, Global Prosperity at the Clayton Christensen Institute – but he did not reply at that moment, I guess because he was on stage presenting. So my thought process was that If I manage to tell anyone that I came to meet him, they could let me in or at least give me a seat to participate in the bootcamp.?

While waiting on a plush couch at the reception, I met Geoffrey Oroma , a participant working on a startup focusing on authentic African stories through music. He kindly guided me to the entry point, the sound of his footsteps echoing in the hallway.? So I walk strait to take a seat – and one of the facilitators, Myrish Cadapan Antonio noticing me, calls me from the reception table to inquire whether I had applied for the program, she tried searching for my name in the database of participants but could not find it – there was one absent participant that?day and she thought to herself maybe it’s me that had finally showed up but indeed wasn’t. So she told me to go back outside and wait for Efosa Ojomo , to finish the presentation – which to me was no problem because deep inside me there was a chance to have a seat at the table. So I sat on the cold floor steps – outside where the session was ongoing and watched through the glass walls as the facilitator delivered a lecture about …

As I sat on the cold floor outside, I could feel the anticipation and excitement seeping through the walls. The muffled sound of the lecture reached my ears, and I watched the presentation through the glass walls with rapt attention.?

During one of the sessions, the facilitators drove into the concept of nonconsumption, a central idea in the Prosperity Paradox. Nonconsumption is when people cannot access or afford existing solutions in the market. The facilitators emphasized that identifying these gaps in the market could lead to innovative solutions that cater to untapped customer segments, ultimately driving economic development and prosperity.

Another key concept discussed was market-creating innovations. These innovations transform complex, expensive products into simpler, more affordable ones, making them accessible to a larger customer base. The facilitators shared examples of market-creating innovations that have spurred growth in various industries and regions, emphasizing their potential to unlock prosperity and create jobs.?A good example that stood out for me was the story of Mo Ibrahim and Celtel as a prime example of market-creating innovation. In the late 1990s, Africa's telecom landscape was underserved, with mobile phone usage being a luxury. Mo Ibrahim recognized the nonconsumption opportunity and founded Celtel in 1998 to make mobile phone services more affordable and accessible to millions of people across the continent.

Celtel's innovative approach expanded mobile phone access to over 20 countries, connecting more than 25 million subscribers. The company's success caught the attention of investors, and in 2005, Celtel was sold to MTC Kuwait (now Zain) for $3.4 billion, generating significant returns for its shareholders.

After about 40 minutes, I was called in and finally met Efosa. He asked me, "If you were me, what would you do?"

I replied that I would try to understand why someone wanted to be part of the training and help them, as creating bridges for others is the best feeling in the world. I also urged him to see the bigger picture and consider the potential outcomes if someone like me were given the chance to learn. To my delight, I was allowed to participate in the boot camp and given a seat at one of the tables. During a break, I thanked Efosa for the opportunity and told him how I learned about the camp through his LinkedIn post. He called me a "real entrepreneur."

On the final day, as sunlight streamed through the windows and birdsong filled the air, I received a certificate of attendance and took a photo with the team. Someone in the crowd reminded me to smile, as I had lost my wide smile amidst the struggles that consumed my mind. I also received a signed copy of the book that inspired the boot camp, which has now become my handbook for crafting market-creating innovations.

This adventure taught me the importance of staying hungry and staying foolish, as Steve Jobs once said. It showed me the power of seizing opportunities and following my passion for learning, even when I'm uninvited. These sensory memories remind me to never shy away from pursuing knowledge, regardless of the obstacles that may arise.

As I move forward in life, I'll continue to cherish the unique moments in life (a lot like this that I have gone through), the kindness of strangers, and the uninvited pursuit of knowledge that has forever changed the way I approach my dreams and aspirations. Stay hungry, stay foolish – and never hesitate to follow your heart when it leads you toward a path of discovery and growth.

As I continue on my journey, I will translate the lessons learned from the bootcamp, the Prosperity Paradox, and Mo Ibrahim's inspiring story into my own reflections and insights. In the coming days, I will share my thoughts on reading the book and how it has shaped my understanding of market-creating innovations.

Moreover, I will be crafting a blueprint for a new face of the African innovation story through a project I have come to call the Artemis Project, outlining the potential for transformative change in various sectors across the continent. Drawing from the principles of the Prosperity Paradox and the real-world examples we've explored, I hope to inspire others to embrace the power of market-creating innovations and become part of the movement to drive economic growth and prosperity in Africa.

Thank you for reading and joining me on this journey. Stay tuned for my reflections and insights, as we collectively work towards a brighter, more innovative future for Africa and beyond.

Abraham. #goodfaith