IS THE GAMBIA AFRICA’S GAME CHANGER? By Ibraheem ‘Bukunle Sanusi

2016 has been punctuated by intriguing elections outcome in Africa. From the controversial to near misses and credible electoral processes in Gabon, Uganda and Benin respectively. The Islamic Republic of The Gambia joined the cohort of credible elections with the concession of defeat by H.E Prof. Dr. Sheikh Yahya Jammeh; one of the longest serving Presidents in Africa, having held office for 22 years.

The polls, held on the 1st of December amidst trepidation and heightened concerns was an anti-climax of some sorts. Watchers of Gambia from near and far had predicted it was going to be another ‘motion without movement’ election with the incumbent securing another four-year term in office.

Even without the power of clairvoyance to see the future, the predictions were premised on antecedents of past elections. In the events leading up to the recent one, several opposition candidates suffered state sponsored harassments, detention, torture and death perhaps more than any other period since Jammeh took power from the post-Independence President, Dauda Jawara in 1994. The country witnessed the most vicious curtailment of fundamental rights, including freedom of expression and speech. In the days leading up to the elections, dissenting views in the media, especially new social media were blocked.

Following the surprising concession call by Yahya Jammeh to President-Elect Adama Barrow, it is important to highlight several processes and actions responsible for the turn of events in The Gambia.

Firstly, this was a classic case of #CitizenPower in action. A broad spectrum of the Gambian society revolted against years of dictatorship and resolutely voted a new leadership. #CitizenPower was further strengthened by#YouthPower at a time when it appeared that the international community had given up on the country. Gambians, mostly youths especially the first timers mobilized within and from the diaspora around a common ‘Jammeh Must Go’ agenda never witnessed in his 22years reign. In the face of molestations, they stood firm, organised themselves, mobilized and resolutely exercised their voting rights. The ‘New Gambia 2016’, amongst others, provided a platform for Gambians within and outside to coalesce around a regime change through the ballots strategy. They have taught the rest of Africa that with resolute action, even long serving leaders can only fool their citizens sometimes, not all the time. This was definitely a clear case of#BallotsNotBullets, and the likelihood that African countries with long-serving leaders can be ousted through the ballot.

The second development that propelled change is the #PowerOfCoalitions.Again, for the first time in the post-independence history of The Gambia, a coalition of Gambian political parties rallied together behind the candidacy of businessman, Adama Barrow, indicating how much power African opposition parties can muster beyond flimsy party divides. The over 19,000-vote margin between Barrow and Jammeh would have been distributed across the other six candidates if they had approached the elections under different platforms. Indeed, that the two opposition candidates; Adama Barrow and Mama Kandeh, cumulatively polled 317,476 votes as against Yaya Jammeh’s 208,487 votes says a lot about how far even a miniscule opposition ‘gang up’ could go to oust a recalcitrant incumbent. It is well known that ruling parties, especially those accustomed to long rule, sustain themselves by creating and sponsoring ‘pseudo’ opposition to disrupt and prevent momentum in opposition strong holds. Without the usual spoilers from within, the solidarity exhibited by the opposition political parties in The Gambia was the proverbial handwriting on the wall that President Jammeh’s time was up.

My third take regarding how Jammeh’s rule unraveled relate to #HomeGrownSolution; a psychological effect of diplomatic fatigue by the International Community regarding the political situation in The Gambia. This fatigue is partly exemplified by concerns voiced by ECOWAS and the AUabout deteriorating human rights situation in the country in the months preceding the elections despite hosting the African Commission on Human and Peoples Rights. Beyond making diplomatic overtures to the Government, the two organisations had very few options left to pull The Gambia away from a potentially combustible brink. The exploits of citizens in neighbouring countries; in Senegal during the Abdoulaye Wade’s botched Third Term saga and in Burkina Faso, in the ousting of Blaise Compaore, inspired the Gambians in an interesting way; not the least the clear message that no one will help The Gambia but Gambians themselves. In the lead-up to the elections, the AU, ECOWAS and UN had several high level preventive diplomacy and technical assessment missions to the country to prevail on stakeholders on the need for a peaceful, free and fair election. This victory, by every measure, however belongs to the Gambian people. They pulled together across political, professional, religious and ethnic divides.

Should all these developments be taken as a new dawn for The Gambia? No doubt saving their country came with a price and until critical segments of the society are able and willing to pay even more sacrifices in the days ahead, the new situation might quickly unravel (sounds prophetic now considering the situation in the last few days). Long accustomed to privileges, the political class and the military in particular must take responsibility to safeguard and consolidate this important milestone.

It is important also for the thousands of Gambia youths on the political frontlines to vigorously engage the system by actively participating in the political party activities, including contesting for elective posts, in parliament, provinces, counties and wards. It will be unpleasant to replace the era of “Jammeh dictatorship” with another round of equally clueless leadership that will not improve the lives of the people in any substantive and qualitative ways.

In a nutshell, the journey towards genuine democratic governance in the Gambia has just begun. Only eternal vigilance by the Gambians themselves, with support of the rest of African and the International Community, can guide Gambia out of the present euphoria of successfully wrestling power from an unrepentant dictator.

This article was written before Yahya Jammeh reversed his earlier decision to accept the result of the December 1 election in The Gambia. The conclusion of this article at the time shows clearly the skepticism and the obvious appreciation of the unpredictability of Yahya Jammeh. It is hoped that the game changers highlighted in this piece as well as the African and International Community will be able to put pressure on Jammeh to do the honourable thing. The author is of the opinion that Jammeh’s time, this time around, is up for good!