Gabon: President Bongo appears set for another re-election on Aug 26

• Bongo is expected to win given fragmented and weakened opposition
• His chances are supported by his strong grip of institutions, relative economic stability
• Opposition coalition yet to agree on single candidate
• This is first time that country will hold general elections with ruling PDG expected to win parliamentary and local vote too

President Ali Bongo appears favourite to win a third term in office at the general elections on Aug 26. We note that this is the first time that the country will hold votes for president, legislators and local councillors together, in line with the recent constitutional amendments. Unlike previous elections, there have been no opinion polls this year, and it is hard to gauge the public support for Bongo and the ruling PDG. However, the fact that the opposition remains fragmented and unable to unite around a single presidential candidacy, and Bongo maintains a firm grip of the state institutions, supports the expectations that he will be victorious again. Besides, Bongo and PDG can rely on the relatively good economic performance, despite the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Inflation remained relatively low and not exceeding 6% even at its peak in 2022 thanks to the subsidies and other popular measures adopted by the government. Economic growth has also rebounded and is seen to stay at around 3% over the medium term.

The main criticism of Bongo is for his perceived failure to tackle corruption and establish democratic principles. A recently published Afrobarometer survey, which was conducted in late 2021, showed that 72% of the Gabonese believe that the last parliamentary elections in 2018 were neither free nor transparent at all or that they were free and transparent but with major issues. In addition, almost 90% of them said they believe elections do not guarantee they can remove from office leaders who do not meet their expectations and only 16% said they trusted the electoral body Gabonese Elections Centre (CGE) to organise free and fair elections. In addition, there have been questions, raised mainly by the opposition, about Bongo's ability to lead the country following his stroke in 2018. Those close to the president have dismissed such concerns insisting he has largely recovered, which is evident from his public appearances.

Opposition concerns about election process

The opposition has demanded changes to the electoral law to make elections more credible and peaceful, and subsequently the government organised political consultations in early 2023 to discuss proposals for reforms. Most of the opposition parties took part and the participants agreed on a number of recommendations and proposals including the unification of all political mandates to five years; the adoption of one-round system for all elections; the increase of the minimum age requirement for the presidential candidates to 30 from 18 years currently; the reduction of the minimum age requirement for senators to 35 from 40; the reduction of nomination fees for candidates in parliamentary and local elections; the appointment of senators by the president in an equitable manner between the ruling alliance and the opposition; and the reduction of the registration deadline from 45 to 30 days.

Some of these proposals were subsequently incorporated in the constitutional amendment that was passed in March 2023. The amendment introduced a uniform, five-year mandate for all major political offices including the president. Hitherto, the president was elected for a seven-year term and senators for six-year terms. Only the members of the lower house of parliament had five-year terms. The amendments also introduced a single-round election, increased the minimum age requirement for the presidential candidates and senators as agreed during the consultations.

However, members of the opposition voiced disappointment with the limited reforms and accused the government of failing to implement all that was agreed, while those who did not take part in the consultations claimed little was done to make elections more credible as major issues were yet to be tackled such as the opposition representation in the GCE, the absence of a ceiling on election spending, the restrictions on public meetings in the pre-election period, the opacity in the transportation and the display of the minutes after the ballot. In addition, the electoral body made last-minute changes introducing a single ballot for the vote which has raised a lot of questions and mainly whether it would mean that choosing a presidential candidate means you automatically choose the MP candidate from the same party too. If that's the case, it could affect the results, especially if the opposition fails to agree on joint candidates.

Adding to the concerns of the opposition is the fact that the EU will not send an observer mission after the tensions created by their observer report in 2016. Back then, the report highlighted significant deficiencies in the election process such as the unusually high turnout in one particular province, and the discrepancy in the number of invalid ballots. It also recommended reforms, but was strongly criticised by the authorities and soured the bilateral relations. Consequently, the sides agreed in 2019 that EU will not send observer missions anymore but some fear this will allow irregularities to continue unchecked. There is therefore a certain risk of election-related tensions and violence, although they are not expected to destabilise the country.

MAIN POLITICAL PLAYERS

Ali Bongo Ondimba

Ali Bongo is the son of the late Omar Bongo, who ruled the country for 42 years before he died in 2009. In the election held later that same year, Ali Bongo won with 41.7% of the votes leaving other opponents far behind him. He ran for re-election in 2016 and won with a very slim margin of just 1.6pps against his strongest opponent so far, Jean Ping (49.8% vs. 48.2%). In both 2009 and 2016 the election results were disputed by his main opponents who claimed the vote was fixed to ensure Bongo's succession. Ping in particular was very vocal about his concerns and refused to admit his defeat, even proclaiming himself as the truly elected president. There was subsequently a failed coup attempt against Bongo while he recovered from a stroke in 2018-2019, but he managed to take control of the situation thanks to the strong loyalty of the army. Ali Bongo's candidacy in the coming election is again supported by a number of smaller parties who want to secure his re-election.

Alexandre Barro Chambrier

Chambrier is the leader of the Rally for the Homeland and Modernity (RPM) and one of the main candidates of the opposition, who was initially reported to have secured the support of most members of the Alternation 2023 platform. However, it later turned out this was not the case and the opposition is yet to unite around one candidacy. Chambrier is an experienced economist who has worked for the IMF and has also served as minister in both Omar Bongo and Ali Bongo's governments. He was expelled from the PDG in 2016 over disagreements about the future of the party and was one of the founders of the Rally for Heritage and Modernity, which was later renamed to RPM. The Alternation 2023 Platform includes opposition parties such as the National Union (UN) and Les Democrats (LD), but one party, Pierre Claver Maganga Moussavou's Social Democratic Party (PSD), left the coalition so that Moussavou can run for president on his own. While Chambrier himself has voiced strong confidence he can win against Bongo, media reports suggest that the opposition is not that certain about it and has internally set less ambitious objectives such as avoiding a humiliating defeat and possibly getting at least 30% of the votes.

Paulette Missambo

The leader of the National Union's (UN) has received the support of at least one of the main parties in the Alternation 2023 platform, that of the party Les Democrats (LD) of former parliamentary speaker Guy Nzouba Ndama. The decision to support Missambo was surprising given that Chambrier's name was mentioned as a more likely consensus candidate for the opposition. It is yet to see what the final decision of the coalition is and whether they will manage to unite behind one candidate. Another issue that complicates the matter is the electoral body's decision to have a single ballot in the elections for president and MPs, which means the opposition should agree on joint candidates not only for the presidency but for legislators too. In any case, Missambo is considered a less popular choice than Chambrier who might be the preferred opposition candidate in the end.

OTHER CANDIDATES

There are a total of 19 presidential candidates who received the GCE approval to run in the Aug 26 election. Aside from the above-mentioned names, probably the most significant candidacy is the one of former VP Pierre-Claver Maganga Moussavou, who opted to leave the opposition platform and run alone. Given that the election is a single-round one, the participation of more than one major opposition figures would serve to disperse the votes for them and thus probably secure an easier win for Bongo.

LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK

In line with the latest constitutional and election law changes, the country will for the first time hold general elections on Aug 26. This means the Gabonese will vote for president, legislators and local governments all at once which has never been the case before. The president, legislators and local councils will now all be elected for five-year terms in a single-round vote. There are not term limits for any political office. The president appoints the prime minister to head the government. The presidential candidate should be at least a fourth generation Gabonese to be eligible to stand in the elections. The election results can be petitioned within eight days of their announcement and the Constitutional Court has 15 days to rule on the petition. The 143 members of the lower house, the National Assembly, are elected in a single-round vote in multi-member constituencies. The members of the Senate are elected by local councillors (52 seats) or appointed by the president (15 seats).