G20 Roundup, and Canada-India...

The G20 Summit occurred last week in Bali, Indonesia. The G20 represents about 75-80% of the world's trade and GDP - and leaders all sat around this big round table...

...and if a picture says a thousand words then a seating chart leaves nothing to imagination! In this photo below, notice how PM Modi, President Biden and Premier Xi Jinping are all at the head of the table while all other countries are sitting down the sides. But look closely, Modi and Biden sitting next to each other, while Xi Jinping is on the other side, away from them and interestingly neutral Italian PM Meloni thrown in there almost randomly perhaps as a buffer.

Here is Cal Bear - UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and Economics Professor - and US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, in between Modi and Putin - let's go Berkeley!

It definitely felt like there is a new bromance occurring between Biden and Modi - they were really close to each other, be it at the tree planting, or generally in the breaks and so forth ...

Here is a very interesting photo of Biden doing a power move on Modi ... hand on shoulder is seen as a friendly gesture, but as opposed to the back, on shoulder is also a dominant move...

Modi and Xi did meet kinda sorta meet at a dinner event and in that, Modi was the one doing the talking, while using some pretty animated hand gestures ...

Xi strikes me as the kind of guy who lets people come to him vs. the other way around. I've noticed that consistently, and Modi is quite the opposite - he will happily go smile sweet talk fist bump dap and hug *most* leaders.

PM Modi also met PM Sunak, and it was cool to see a folded hand 'namaskar' from PM Sunak...see this still I captured from a video. I believe this is the first time PM Sunak had met Modi as PM of UK and first reaction was to fold hands, while Modi ironically took his hand out in Western style ( did not Namaskar back ).

It must be quite an interesting conversation between them because at the end of the day, they are both 'Indian' and Modi is incredibly senior to Sunak, and being Indian, it is quite difficult to ignore seniority - it's built into Indian DNA ... And it's not like PM Sunak has a free pass to be 'foreign' like a Kamala Harris and others, who are so far removed from India - but PM Sunak has very close ties! I wonder how that inter-personal dynamic is...

My bet is that Modi treats Rishi in the same way he would treat Mark Zuckerberg, like a star, and never exert any sort of seniority or throw the Indian, or the age, card...so it's probably as official as it gets. That moment of PM Sunak doing Namaskar was probably something that delighted PM Modi on the inside, and deeply appreciated, but now - it's all handshakes...

It is also always great to see Modi and his good buddy, PM Macron, - India and France - that's just written in Stone. Always. It's that India-France, France-Russia weird one, can't put finger on, but it's one of those guarantees in life: Death, Taxes and India-France-Russia...

Canada - India: this one is deeply personal given I'm Canadian ( and proud , love Canada very much ), and equally patriotic to India as well. You know it's such a tough one, I don't think a lot of it is Trudeau's personal fault. I think any Canadian PM is doomed in this day and age with India gaining a big seat of power at the global tables. Here is why: At the surface level of it all is the decades old, seemingly perpetual Indian Government's frustration, with ( at least how they perceive ) the Canadian governments leniency towards Khalistan separatists. Maybe. But let's dig deeper on this one: Canada is stuck in between a rock and hard place you know...

It is a clear fact that about half of the Indo-Canadian community don't even call themselves 'Indian' but rather 'Punjabi' as in they're from the state of Punjab (as opposed to from the country India which has the state Punjab). There is is a clear disdain against India amongst this community - and the Indian government consistently feels 'jabbed' at within the confines of Canada's democratic 'free speech' framework.

Why?

Fundamentally, the Punjabi/Sikh community in Canada looks at themselves as 'marginalized' with respect to India; and also the notion of being victims of 'government violence'. Not being a part of the Sikh community myself, I won't be able to feel what it is like in their shoes - there is the saying, 'there isn't a single Sikh who doesn't know someone affected by violence from events of the early 80s' - Operation BlueStar and the aftermath etc. - and that is unfortunate. This backdrop only strengthens their desire to propagate the Khalistan movement.

There have been, and continue to be, powerful politicians who have had strong links in the past, or vocally continue to support this even today. For example, Harjit Singh Sajjan - former defense minister, and now international affairs minister - seated below here in this photo on the right ...

...and Canada's leader of the opposition, and leader of the NDP party, Jagmeet Singh, who has been quite supportive of the recently completed Khalistan referendum...

Yes, you read that right, there was a referendum held in Canada about whether to have an independent cut off from India. Given that Canada is a democracy, it must allow for dissent and protest etc, so that they feel 'safe' holding events such as the Khalistan referendum, and other such events.

Now I won't say what is right or wrong, but recently I heard Jagmeet Singh's justification that, "...if people can protest in Catalonia, or in Scotland, then why not do it in Canada..." - and this is where the Indian Government sees the argument fall flat, and where Canada as a country lose brownie points in India's eyes... because historic context is missing.

Good or bad, Indian independence involved a bunch of strong arming, for example by Sardar Patel, of various states to join the 'federated republic' - and it is a delicate one because India is a conglomeration of so many different states, many of which don't speak the same language, let alone share the same culture ... and this is very very sensitive - and one that Indian government sees as an internal issue. Whereas Spain and Scotland are not 'new' countries with this issue, nor do they have border disputes with a neighboring country. This is a tough one.

The inability for Canada to not understand context around the strategic geo-political implications of Punjab to India is what I think is a fundamental mistake that the Canadian government fails to own up to. In the Indian Government's eyes, a line is crossed - and unfortunately for Canada - by some pretty wealthy and powerful communities with tentacles deep into the political and social fabric.

Maybe it isn't an inability of the Canadian government but a choice - a Darwinian choice to so speak: Shutting down these protests/referendums would be political suicide for Canadian political leaders, so the government has no choice but to take a soft stance - and then do damage control on the outside. Case in point: His Excellency Cameron MacKay , Canadian HC to India was unequivocally clear in a recent interview that Canada doesn't recognize the referendum, and that it supports a unified India with territorial integrity - and it is their constitutional right in a democratic society. My interpretation: "this Khalistan referendum stuff sucks big time and this is our way of saying it without pissing off some pretty important people back at home". High Commissioner Mackay's position is a symbol of where Canada needs to be if it wants to buddy up to India, but unfortunately is not currently reflective of the domestic opinion. That's what makes Mackay a great HC - he understands India is more than Punjab, yet he still reps Canada and must do right by his Prime Minister's instructions, but he still needs to play the game and demonstrate association and affinity to the Punjabi community. He's playing a balance game well.

If I had 5m with PM Justin Trudeau, who I really really like, and want to see win on the global stage...I would say this: There is only one solution here: Canada needs to make a choice and then action on it: Does Canada want to play the global power game and buddy buddy up to India or not? Yes or No. No judgement on the answer. If no, continue as is. Just look at the trade: India is only Canada's 13th largest trading partner - that's pretty low - and will probably end up staying there or stay lower. Bigs risks to Canada missing out here...

If Yes - then diversify the Indo-Canadian 'vibe' by attracting more students from other parts of India, and amplify trade through policies, investment and create entrepreneurial centers and accelerators, especially in tech and sustainability, needs to amp up big time so that we see hubs like Bangalaru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Gujurat and so on creates ties to the Toronto, Vancouver, etc.--- for three reasons: 1 - to teach the rest of Canada that India isn't just 'Punjabi' - and balance out the 'separatist' forces that are so prevelant; and 2 - it balances out the 'Indian' population to more accurately depict what India truly represents and 3 - enables a more diverse Indo-Canadian audience to gain power, be it financially, politically or socially.

Just look at the US - it quite mirrors India and look at their relations! British Columbia has a long way to go, while Ontario is a bit better, but still --- a very very very long way to go for this to change. Only when this happens, can Canada truly shift its stick wielding both internally, and also be more 'loud' and unequivocal externally.

Canada was able to get away with it for the last 30y because India wasn't strong. But - tables have turned. India is about to be the strongest country in the world in terms of geo-political clout, manufacturing, sustainability and so forth - and it is in Canada's interest to buddy up.

Canada is a leader in technology, sustainability, sports , culture - it has been a quiet leader and commands peaceful vibes to the rest of the world - Canadian's are the friendly ones, 'confident without arrogance' but when it comes to India - it is not like that. This is now a choice and active leadership and aggresive initiatives are required, more from Canada's side than India's side. Canada needs Indian talent , culture and geo-political side, and India needs Canadian tech, sustainability and cultural expertise. Win - win. But ball is in Canada's court now.