FX UPDATE 11/11/2024
?The Euro fell to its lowest point in 4 and a half months against the Dollar on Monday, driven by concerns over potential US tariffs that could harm the eurozone economy. Meanwhile, the greenback approached the levels seen shortly after the presidential election against other major currencies, as markets concentrated on economic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and awaited more clarity on upcoming US policies. The single currency dropped 0.3% to $1.0685 at the time of writing, after reaching $1.0679, its lowest point since late June. “The thesis for Dollar bears now is that it will take a while for tariffs to come through and the Fed recalibration to less restrictive monetary policy,” according to Chris Turner, head of forex strategy at ING. “We disagree and think this clean election result can boost US consumer and business sentiment at the same time as it weighs on business sentiment elsewhere in the world,” he added.
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The Dollar index – measuring the currency against six major peers, rose 0.3% to 105.32. Last week, it surged over 1.5% to 105.44, its highest since early July, following the announcement of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Reuters reports. The Dollar also gained 0.8% against the Yen, reaching 153.82, after being pulled back from last week's peak of 154.70 due to concerns about potential Japanese intervention. On 6th November it hit 154.68, its highest level since July.
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In addition, the Pound to Dollar rate is facing pressure at the beginning of this week, and is currently consolidating within a range featuring 1.30 as the upper boundary and 1.2834 serving as the lower limit. The upcoming week may see the price action remain within this range, with the lower end likely to be tested before a potential rebound toward 1.30, Pound Sterling Live reports.
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Furthermore, the Dollar reached its highest level against the offshore Chinese Yuan since early August, standing at 7.2131, up 0.25%, after rising 0.70% on Friday following a 0.75% decline the previous day. The weak economic outlook in China was underscored by data released over the weekend, showing that consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in four months in October, while producer price deflation deepened.
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The Indian Rupee fell to a record low on Monday, as concerns over Donald Trump's US election victory put pressure on Asian currencies and sustained outflows from Indian stocks weighed on the local currency. However, traders noted that likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped prevent a sharper decline. The Rupee dropped to a low of 84.3875 in early trading, surpassing its previous all-time low of 84.38 hit on Friday. At the time of writing the currency stood at 84.37.
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Elsewhere, South Africa’s Rand remained largely unchanged in early trade on Monday, with local unemployment data being a key focus among this week's economic releases. At the time of writing, the Rand was trading at 17.5850 against the Dollar, almost identical to Friday's closing level of 17.5875. The Rand experienced significant volatility last week as global financial markets reacted to Donald Trump's US election victory and the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. Statistics South Africa is set to release Q3 unemployment figures on Tuesday, followed by September manufacturing output data. September mining production data is scheduled for release on Thursday.
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