The Futurology of Mixology? Predicting global trends in an unpredictable time
Postulating possible futures is a tricky business at the best of times. Here we are coming to the end of 2020 and who could have predicted the state we’re in? The global pandemic, the colossal impact on our industry more than any other; new meanings to old phrases: drive thrus, bubbles, curfews, the displacement of the ‘lock-in’ with a ‘lock-down’ and how a ‘substantial meal’ could be the key to survival over the next months has posed a question: “Can anyone really predict anything with any certainty anymore?” Who could possibly know what’s going to happen ten days from now let alone in ten years time?
Obviously, the priority at the coal face right now is to get through the season. To continue trading and protect staff and jobs at all costs. Reacting to the here and now is one thing, and I get it, it’s tricky when you can’t see the woods for the trees; we’re told it pays dividends to have at least some sense of what’s coming our way and life will get back to some incarnation of normal. Whether you’re a brand, bar or bartender, those that come out the traps fastest will be those that have the best of chance of thriving in a post COVID world.
With this in mind, here are a few tips from the CC team (who’ve been doing this stuff for years and so know a thing or two)
How to separate fact from fiction:
CC’s top tips on trend spotting
Just as the world's leading chefs, food retailers and manufacturers join the race to feed the next generation of flexitarians, we all know well that the same game is played out amongst those that shape the world of drinks innovation too; but who can really say whether the classics and a simpler life is where it’s at or whether in-bar ferments, alternative acids and CBD cocktails are here to stay?
Separating fact from fiction when it comes to predicting possible futures in the world of drinks is best achieved (like anything in life) with a definite framework, a tried and tested process and clear understanding that multiple brains are always better than one.
Tip#1. See clearly
- You need to see clearly when you want to separate fad from future because the only fact to be sure of is that most people who speak about trends have a vested interest in them and this includes you. How long has ‘rum been the new gin’ and whether ‘vodka is making a comeback’ depends on who you’re talking to so bias will always be as prevalent as speciality ice in this world. Ask yourself, ‘does everyone really want to know the next big thing?’ or do they really want you to know ‘their next big thing?’
Tip#2. Define your universe
- At CC, we take trend spotting very seriously so much so that we place a constant watch over the industry by means of a deck of cards. 52 trends, ever evolving on a 'one in one out' system in order to plot at any given moment what’s happening right now. Some are so super cutting edge that you’re likely not to have heard of them and some will be on every high street where you live but what really helps the process, just like a real deck of playing cards, is the order into suits. So that’s bartenders, bars, brands and beings (aka people) for the global cocktail community.
Tip#3. Identify the main drivers
- Having mapped and segmented every trend, you need to know what game you’re playing and for trends analysis, this means identifying the overarching insights. Sometimes these seem paradoxical but that’s o.k., it just might be what’s going on. The ‘simple’ yet ‘complex’ dyad is what’s driving things right now just as ‘individual’ yet ‘communal’ did a few years back.
Tip#4. Prioritise the trends
- Insights give rise to core trends so the next step is to apply a filter to the original deck. Those that don’t fit the bigger picture get shelved. But this is a fashion business so you’ll need to take into account factors like the flow of influence and adoption, outliers and backlash. ‘Craft’ is still going strong but there’s plenty of evidence that the hipsters of East London have already had enough; you need look no further than ELLC’s latest packaging to know which way all that’s going.
Tip#5. Apply a process
- We often use the 3P’s of futurology to look at what’s Possible (before the filters are applied), Probable (after the main drivers) and Preferable (a measure of what works best for you – after all what’s the point if you don’t use what’s left over for your own ends right?).
So there you go. A clear framework, process and team effort to help plot and plan the future.
For all research, NPD, brand planning and Futurology of Mixology? workshops, talks and reports (or if you just want a game of cards), please get in touch with [email protected].
Before we go... Just wanted to leave you with this... (well done for getting this far!)
The work of a future trend expert is almost never scrutinised because, by the very nature, everyone has literally moved on by then. We’ve found a set of predictions that has been put under the microscope and given a right old teacher assessment. Ten years ago my previous agency was asked by Imbibe to make some predictions about the future of our industry and last year, the work was ‘marked’ by the then Editor who found an old copy from ten years ago in his attic or something. Now, as if to prove the point about not knowing what the future holds for any of us - who saw the closure of Imbibe coming? - I’m happy to share the results. Just take my prediction of ‘robots cleaning our homes’ with a large pinch of bartender’s pink Himalayan salt as I’m sure you will.
Here’s a link to the article: https://imbibe.com/news/bartenders-drinks-predictions-decade-come-true/
Cheers, Ben & the CC team
?The Trend cards used in this article's picture are predictions made in our 2016 deck
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