Of futures thinking, vampires, and werewolves

Apropos of recent conversations and workshops on futures thinking, I think there is still much to be done to clear up the confusion about this work I do. If we practitioners don't do a good job of that, the expectation-reality gap is just going to lead to disappointment and frustration. For example, how often have we heard this from the audience we are trying to reach and help: "So you're saying this is going to happen? How sure are you? When exactly? How exactly?"

The hell would I know?

Sorry, futures thinking (or strategic intelligence/warning, if you prefer) doesn't do that. It can't. Which door to kick in and whom to shoot is more the province of tactical alerts. And even then that is a highly-fallible enterprise.

Let me try and give you an example of how futures thinking works. You are the seer/wise person in a village. The main danger the village faces is vampires. For many generations, it has always been vampires. The village has gotten good at dealing with these threats, based mainly on detection devices like mirrors and reflective surfaces, deterrence measures (crosses, garlic, and running water), and specialised weapons (holy water bombs and wooden stakes). You know when they come (at night) and you've come to discern a pattern to their movements. All these things you do are tried and tested.

One day, from another village over the next valley, you hear tales of attacks by another type of creature. The victims are bitten, but strangely, they are also mauled. There are rumours that they are wolves that walk like men. You are not even sure if they have a name for this creature. All you know is that they also come at night. But you know they don't attack every night. There seems to be a pattern as to which nights, but you can't quite make it out yet...

Anyway, the most vital bit of information is that it seems they can only be killed by weapons made of silver: silver blades, silver-tipped arrows, silver bullets.

You bring what you know to the chieftain. The chieftain strokes his beard, frowns, and demands more details. This is too abstract and vague, you see. When are they coming? How many? Are you sure they are even a thing? Are you sure it's not really the guys with the capes and cravats? The key stakeholder wants to know.

So you say, Listen, there is a lot we don't know. I can't get into specifics. We do know only silver works on them. Our existing countermeasures won't work. My value-add is that there wasn't this man-wolf thing before, and now we know it's a thing. Maybe for a start we had better start a silver collection and get ready, then maybe worry about when and how many?

That's all futures thinking can ever do. Of course, it is your prerogative to not act on it. Maybe the count and his crew are mixing things up a bit wearing dog suits.

But what if you're wrong? You had a chance to reconfigure your defences to accommodate this new wolf thinggy. Instead, you are stuck with counter-vampire doctrines and equipment.

So death will come swiftly by mauling, and death will smell of wet dog and come all the more swiftly for being irritated by pathetic volleys of garlic and water balloons. Maybe you'll wonder at the bright, round moon above as the lifeblood drains from you.