The Futures - No. 79 - Quantumrun Foresight

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about how increasing tension in the Middle East could trigger an oil crisis, Americans fleeing their homes due to climate change, Zoom rolling out AI avatars, and the global space defenders.

Future signals to watch

• MIT engineers have developed a solar-powered desalination system that adjusts to sunlight levels and achieves over 94% energy efficiency, producing up to 5,000 liters of clean water daily.
• Zoom is expanding its AI capabilities by introducing personalized AI avatars that can send brief messages on your behalf. Users can create an avatar by recording a video, which the AI will replicate to deliver messages using Zoom's Clips feature for short video updates.
• Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have developed a biophotonics-based technology that quickly detects early heart attack signs in blood, with potential future applications in handheld devices for broader diagnostic use.
• Microsoft is developing an enterprise-level Copilot feature, allowing companies to create custom AI virtual employees to handle administrative tasks while aligning with company guidelines, with public testing planned for November.
• Teen beauty spending has reached its highest level since 2018 at $342, with cosmetics leading but fragrance growing rapidly at 25% year-over-year.
• Deepfake porn in South Korea sparked protests and calls for stronger action, as many women removed their social media content, and public forums were held to address the issue.
• A study reveals that while domestic vertical garden appliances offer fresh, local produce, they consume substantial energy, with artificial lighting alone making up over 50% of total energy costs.
• France and Germany have joined the US's space warfighting initiative, Operation Olympic Defender, which aims to optimize space operations and enhance the resilience of space-based systems. The multinational effort seeks to deter hostile actions and minimize space debris while improving mission assurance.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Yellowstone //? X → Professional date //? Reddit → American vs European vacation //? TikTok →Japan Eats //? Instagram → Burgundy Season //? Spotify → “25”

??? Will there be a new Middle East oil crisis?

The potential for a new Middle East oil crisis looms large, driven by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s October 1, 2024 missile strikes on Israel, which involved the launch of approximately 180–200 ballistic missiles, is considered one of the largest ballistic missile attacks on a sovereign nation in recent history. On October 25, Israel retaliated by targeting military facilities that Iran used to make the missiles it fired, as well as surface-to-air missile sites.

Israel’s preferred targets—Iran’s nuclear and oil refinery infrastructure—were spared, likely at the request of US counterparts.

Unfortunately, given Israel’s latest attack, along with its continued grinding decimation of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi military capacity—in addition to a potential second Trump administration—Iran will feel increasingly boxed in strategically.

• Iran could choose to do nothing, withdraw, and watch Israel destroy the regional proxies it spent the last two decades building up. But doing so would degrade its image in the Arab street and destroy the trust it’s built with regional militant groups.
• Iran could choose to fire another barrage of missiles at Israel. But that would give Israel the green light to attack its primary offensive (nuclear) and financial (oil) assets.
• Iran could choose to accelerate its development of nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent that doesn’t depend on using regional proxies. But given Iran’s publicly stated intent to eliminate the Jewish state, a nuclear Iran would become an existential threat that would force Israel’s hand militarily.

In other words, continued military conflict between these two nations appears likely over the near term.

Let’s explore the broader impact such an escalation might have. Consider the medium-likelihood scenario of Israel attacking Iran’s oil facilities.

Iran is one of the world's top ten oil producers. Any disruption (attack) to its Kharg Island export terminal, which handles 90% of its oil exports, could severely affect global supply. This scenario would impact not only Iran but also neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as these regions are interconnected through shared oil routes and infrastructure.?

Global oil prices would likely rocket upwards overnight. Iran could retaliate by disrupting or cutting off oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacking nearby oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Such a scenario could see long-term disruption to global oil flows, with OPEC+ potentially unable to stabilize markets, even with its spare capacity.

According to analysts, while the US could mitigate most of the global supply shortage with its shale oil reserves, it will likely face domestic pressure to end oil exports. In this scenario, Europe could experience a severe recession, while Russia could experience a significant oil revenue boost that could support its Ukraine war efforts. Meanwhile, China—the largest consumer of Middle East crude—would likely experience a further slowdown in its economic growth, which has already seen four consecutive months of decline in 2024.

Optimistically, IEA thinks that without any major disruptions, the oil market has a significant surplus heading into 2025, with output from the Americas (the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil) more than covering any demand growth.

Quantumrun will continue to monitor the region closely to provide its readers and clients with early warning insights.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

• According to Deloitte, roughly 70% of top innovative and low-carbon companies use decentralized functional or matrix structures to better incorporate new ventures and swiftly respond to market and technological shifts.
• A Talentneuron survey showed that four-day week job postings in the US increased 53% from 2021 to 2023.
• Harvard Business Law interviewed 570 experts on what they think the future of work will look like.
• A survey revealed that most companies are struggling to enforce return-to-office mandates, with many workers resisting compliance, as more businesses plan to tighten these policies in 2025.
• According to Carbon Brief's analysis of International Energy Agency data, global solar power generation will increase fourfold by 2030, contributing to the decline of coal-based energy.

?? The US is seeing more abandoned areas due to climate change

Climate abandonment areas are regions in the US where residents are relocating due to increasing risks from climate-related disasters like flooding, hurricanes, and rising sea levels. According to research from the First Street Foundation, over 16 million people, or 5% of the US population, now live in places with heightened flood risks and shrinking populations. These areas are concentrated along the Texas Gulf Coast, coastal Florida, and the mid-Atlantic but can also be found in inland areas prone to river flooding. This trend has led to a new migration pattern, where many people move short distances within their city or region to escape immediate dangers.

The reasons behind this shift are both economic and environmental. Property values in flood-prone areas have dropped significantly, and many residents prefer to leave rather than face repeated rebuilds after disasters. An estimated 3.2 million Americans left flood-prone neighborhoods between 2000 and 2020, and that number is expected to grow by another 2.5 million in the next 30 years.

For example, parts of Miami, Galveston, and Staten Island have seen steady population declines as people seek safer ground, despite the continued development of nearby high-risk zones. The demographic changes also point to an aging population being left behind, particularly in places where the economic means to relocate are lacking. This poses further challenges for local governments tasked with maintaining infrastructure for fewer, poorer, and older residents.

As more people leave vulnerable areas, many communities will experience reduced tax revenues, straining their ability to maintain services and infrastructure. Some regions, like coastal Florida and Texas, are expected to face significant depopulation by mid-century, disrupting long-standing growth patterns.

Additionally, local governments are grappling with the ethical dilemma of whether to protect residents by rebuilding or forcing them to relocate through managed retreat efforts, which have sparked debates over property rights and public safety.?

Actionable trend insights as climate abandonment areas increase:

For entrepreneurs

• Entrepreneurs could create customizable, modular homes designed specifically for flood-prone areas that can be relocated or elevated as needed. These homes could feature retractable stilts, water-resistant materials, and energy-efficient designs to withstand climate impacts.?
• They can offer relocation consulting services that help families and businesses in flood-prone regions move to safer areas. This service could include everything from legal assistance to secure government buyouts to helping people find climate-resilient homes, particularly in cities projected to grow due to climate migration.?

For corporate innovators

• Construction or infrastructure companies can develop partnerships with local governments to build flood-resilient infrastructure such as elevated roadways, water retention systems, and reinforced buildings in high-risk areas.?
• Insurance companies can offer unique, customized policies designed to protect homeowners in areas identified as climate abandonment zones, covering relocation costs and property retrofitting.?

For public sector innovators

• Local governments can develop land swap programs that allow residents in high-risk flood areas to exchange their homes for properties in safer zones.?
• Federal and state/provincial governments can establish restrictions on flood-prone areas to restrict new housing construction, as well as payout programs for families looking to sell their coastal homes.
• They can encourage farmers in flood-prone regions to adopt climate-smart agriculture techniques that reduce environmental risk and increase productivity.?

Outside curiosities

• Instacart's Caper Cart, equipped with a touchscreen and payment terminal, helps shoppers navigate stores, find products, and tally items automatically.
• The Neom linear city, a project by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, is consuming 20% of the world’s steel.
• Another Las Vegas’ Sphere will be built in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
• Tesla’s Optimus Bots were remote-controlled by humans.
• Is Apple TV not marketing its shows part of its branding strategy?

More from Quantumrun

• Read more daily trend reporting on Quantumrun.com
• Become a premium newsletter subscriber and get a free one-year subscription to the Quantumrun Trends Platform.
• Corporate readers can review our Trend Intelligence Platform
• Email us at [email protected] with questions or feedback.

Finally, share your thoughts in the Substack comments below. We love hearing from you!

See you in The Futures,

Quantumrun team