The Futures - No. 78 - Quantumrun Foresight

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about energy-related emissions peaking in 2024, technologies evolving faster than anticipated, the luxurious commercial space station, and TikTok laying off employees over AI.

Future signals to watch

• Vast's Haven-1, the first commercial space station, is set to launch next year, featuring interiors designed with fine-grained maple wood for added warmth and style. The station's first paying customers will board in 2026 and experience a cozier, home-like environment in space.
• Rice University researchers have developed bioengineered microorganisms inspired by mussels' adhesive properties to break down plastic faster.
• The European Space Agency launched Hera, its asteroid explorer, and Hera Space Companion, an AI chatbot that offers interactive, real-time data and mission updates.
• Hanwha Aerospace has unveiled the world’s first unmanned robotic amphibious missile launcher designed for maximum fire support in remote areas with minimal manpower.
• Researchers have developed a process to produce edible biomass from asteroid materials using microbes, potentially sustaining astronauts on long-duration missions without relying on Earth’s resupply.
• The US Army is testing AI-equipped robot dogs mounted with rifles at a military facility in Saudi Arabia amid regional tensions.
• MIT researchers have developed a cost-effective method to expand tissue for nanoscale imaging using conventional light microscopes, enabling wider accessibility to high-resolution imaging in biology labs.?
• ByteDance is laying off around 500 TikTok employees in Malaysia, shifting to AI-powered content moderation. TikTok employs a mix of AI and human moderators, with human reviews for contested rulings.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Babygirl //? X → Women in STEM //? Reddit → When a computer controls a pool //? TikTok → Get Laid Off With Me //? Instagram → Halloween Manicure //? Spotify → “Thick of It”

???? Technology has evolved faster in the Intelligent Age

The long-term impact of technology is changing our society at an unprecedented pace, with advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and blockchain influencing various sectors. Over the past 50 years, technology has revolutionized everyday life, from communication to education. For example, camera phones and 5G networks have transformed how we create and share information, with mobile devices offering faster connections and more powerful tools for creativity.?

The rapid evolution of technology in recent decades is extraordinary compared to the slow progression of earlier innovations, such as the printing press and the telephone. This accelerated pace is pushing society into the Intelligence Age, where technology will increasingly define our interactions and productivity, particularly through automation and generative AI.

However, the rapid technological shift poses risks, particularly in terms of employment and social cohesion. AI and automation are disrupting industries, potentially displacing millions of workers in sectors like manufacturing and finance. This shift demands updated education systems and policies to help workers transition to new roles or the socioeconomic gap could widen.

Historically, technological change has left behind specific population segments, and this concern remains relevant today. Because the rapid shift we are witnessing is far more dramatic than in the past, it requires more immediate responses from policymakers to ensure social stability.

Looking to the future, the environmental impact of energy-hungry technologies like cryptocurrency mining and AI computing also requires attention. Balancing these innovations with sustainability is crucial to mitigating climate change and reducing the strain on natural resources.

Meanwhile, the continued development of AI, particularly in healthcare and clean energy, offers significant promise for improving human life. However, it is vital that we manage these technologies responsibly to ensure their benefits are widely shared and that future generations inherit a more equitable world.

Actionable trend insights as technology continues to rapidly evolve:

For entrepreneurs

• Entrepreneurs can capitalize on the demand for continuous upskilling by creating AI-driven personalized learning platforms. These platforms could use machine learning to analyze a user’s current skill set, career trajectory, and industry trends, then provide tailored learning paths to ensure they remain competitive in an evolving workforce.?
• Entrepreneurs can leverage the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) by creating blockchain-based digital identity systems that ensure secure, transparent transactions of all kinds without relying on traditional banks or licensed intermediaries.

For corporate innovators

• Companies can set up (or contract out) departments that specialize in strategic foresight to support future readiness across their organization. These departments would allow the companies they serve to stay aware of emerging trends and innovations, as well as make more informed, long-term strategic investments.
• Pharmaceutical corporations can partner with quantum computing startups to simulate complex molecular interactions and predict how new compounds will interact with human biology at an unprecedented speed. This would drastically reduce the need for costly and time-consuming laboratory experiments.?

For public sector innovators

• Governments can set up ministries or agencies tasked with overseeing process automation and technology modernization initiatives across government operations. These agencies would also keep other ministries informed about the emerging trends and innovations that would impact their long-term investment programs.
• Governments can create national public health platforms that track and predict disease outbreaks.?

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

• A new report reveals that AI tools like ChatGPT use up to four times more water than previously thought, raising concerns about the sustainability of data centers due to their cooling needs.
• According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle for the Future of Work report, 45% of organizations with over 500 employees will use AI-powered employee avatars to enhance their human capital capacity by 2028.
• An interesting snapshot on how the more a society is egalitarian, the higher the gender gap in STEM enrollment.
• Hiring Lab discusses how language influences job opportunities for migrants.
• Renewables, led by solar, are expected to generate nearly 50% of global electricity by 2030 but will likely miss the UN target of tripling capacity, according to the IEA's report.

?? Are we reaching Peak Emissions in 2024?

This year is widely anticipated to be the peak for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with significant implications for future climate policy. According to DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2024, emissions will likely start to decline from 2025, marking the first sustained reduction since the Industrial Revolution. This turning point is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, as fossil fuel reliance begins to drop.?

China has emerged as a global leader in emission reduction, accounting for 58% of global solar installations last year. Meanwhile, fossil fuel use is forecasted to fall from an 80/20 mix in favor of fossil energy today to a 50/50 split by 2050. As the largest consumer of coal, the country has begun drastically reducing its coal usage for electricity generation, replacing it with renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydropower.?

By 2023, China had installed 9,500 terawatt-hours of renewable energy and is expected to generate 8,300 more annually by 2030. Furthermore, China’s steel and cement industries—responsible for nearly 30% of its coal demand—are also decarbonizing, with the transition to electric arc furnaces and scrap steel recycling further curbing emissions.?

However, the decline in global emissions is not universal. The US, while experiencing some renewable growth, lags behind China and Europe in electrification and decarbonization. High levels of vehicle emissions, reliance on natural gas, and an industrial base slow to transition continue to burden the US with emissions exceeding 6.2 billion tons annually.?In contrast, China’s current emissions of 9.4 billion tons are projected to drop to 3.5 billion by 2040, thanks to aggressive renewable energy strategies.

As global emissions peak and begin to fall, the gap between proactive nations and lagging economies could widen, shaping future geopolitical and economic dynamics.

Actionable trend insights as global carbon emissions peak in 2024:

For entrepreneurs

• Entrepreneurs can innovate in carbon-negative construction materials.?
• They can design agricultural tools and technologies that use captured CO2 to enhance crop growth.?

For corporate innovators

• Manufacturing and energy companies can turn decommissioned industrial sites into carbon capture and storage (CCS) hubs.?
• Finance and insurance firms can create new financial products tied to carbon credits, anticipating increased demand as more businesses look to offset their emissions.?

For public sector innovators

• Governments can introduce tax incentives that encourage local manufacturing facilities to integrate carbon capture technologies into their processes.?
• They could launch government-backed carbon sequestration farming programs.?

Outside curiosities

• Tesla’s Cybercab and Robovan look … interesting.
• The lengths McDonalds will go to just to taste teste and hype up its Chicken Big Mac.
• 14 US states teamed up to file a lawsuit against TikTok for allegedly harming kids’ mental health.
• The rise of absurdity marketing.
• Artists keep on releasing remixes and deluxe versions of their albums to boost streams.

More from Quantumrun

• Read more daily trend reporting on Quantumrun.com
• Become a premium newsletter subscriber and get a free one-year subscription to the Quantumrun Trends Platform.
• Corporate readers can review our Trend Intelligence Platform
• Email us at [email protected] with questions or feedback.

Finally, share your thoughts in the Substack comments below. We love hearing from you!

See you in The Futures,

Quantumrun team