The Futures - No. 68 - Quantumrun Foresight

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the urgency to discover energy-efficient cooling systems, smaller countries adopting the US dollar, the biochemist who used AI to generate a deadly virus, and the global population peaking ahead of time.

Future signals to watch?

• Rocco Casagrande brought a black box with potential pandemic-causing ingredients, guided by an AI chatbot's deadly recipe, to the White House. As a biochemist and former UN weapons inspector, he wanted to illustrate how AI could be used to create dangerous viruses.
• Stanford University researchers propose using firebricks to store industrial heat energy, reducing conversion inefficiencies and saving industries trillions.
• Eligo Bioscience researchers achieved nearly 100% efficiency in genetically modifying gut bacteria in animals, opening new avenues for understanding microbiome-driven diseases and developing innovative therapies.
• California startup Savor announced an animal-free butter alternative created through a thermochemical process that replicates the taste of traditional dairy.
• Argentina's security forces plan to use AI for crime prediction and surveillance, raising concerns about potential threats to citizens' rights.
• Some passengers at Singapore's Changi Airport can now clear immigration using eye and facial biometrics instead of passports in a new trial program.
• Scientists at Nanjing Agricultural University discovered a genetic mechanism in wild pear trees that could lead to engineering drought-resistant crops.
• The UN report predicts the global population will grow by over 2 billion, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before declining to 10.2 billion by century's end, much lower than anticipated. This early peak is caused by 20% of the world currently having ultra-low fertility rates.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Avengers: Doomsday //? X → The real Olympics GOAT //? Reddit → This amazing cookie cutter //? TikTok → Hot Passport Photos //? Instagram → Britney Skateboards //? Spotify → “Chk Chk Boom”

?? The urgency to make cooling and heating systems efficient

The race to innovate for lower emissions is fueled by pressing environmental issues and the high-stakes chess game of geopolitics. An underreported target of this innovation is cooling systems.

In much of the world, HVAC systems (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) account for approximately 40% of the energy used in commercial buildings and about 50% in residential buildings. This high energy consumption leads to a substantial amount of indirect emissions, especially if the energy comes from fossil fuels. Globally, HVAC systems are responsible for roughly 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions.

Fortunately, there are a variety of emerging technologies poised to reimagine heating and cooling systems globally:

• One notable technology is elastocalorics, which has the potential to replace traditional air conditioning and heating systems with more energy-efficient alternatives. According to a research team from Germany’s Saarland University, materials like superelastic nickel-titanium alloys offer significant energy savings.
• Meanwhile, the AirJoule system by Montana Technologies focuses on improving the efficiency of dehumidification processes within air conditioning units. AirJoule uses a highly porous metal-organic framework to absorb moisture from the air, significantly reducing the energy consumption required for dehumidification by up to 90% compared to traditional methods. The system's application is being tested in various settings, including potential military uses for harvesting drinkable water from the air.
• Finally, Vesma, from Harvard University, combines vacuum membrane dehumidification and evaporative cooling, offering a refrigerant-free and eco-friendly solution that can outperform traditional vapor-compression air conditioners. Early testing in real-world conditions has shown that Vesma can effectively cool indoor air while maintaining a high coefficient of performance.

As global cooling demands are projected to triple by 2050 due to rising temperatures, sustainable cooling technologies not only promise significant reductions in energy consumption but also pave the way for a more resilient and self-sufficient energy infrastructure.

Actionable trend insights as heating and cooling systems become more energy-efficient:

For entrepreneurs

• Entrepreneurs can design and manufacture modular elastocaloric HVAC systems tailored for smart buildings. These systems can be customized to fit different room sizes and can be controlled via smart home technologies for optimal energy efficiency.?
• They can develop specialized dehumidifiers for environments that require precise humidity control, such as art galleries, archives, and wine cellars. By targeting these niche markets, entrepreneurs can offer a premium product that protects valuable assets while promoting sustainability.?

For corporate innovators

• Data centers can implement advanced dehumidification systems to improve energy efficiency and reduce operational costs. This not only results in significant cost savings but also supports sustainability goals by reducing the environmental impact of these facilities (especially as new AI systems drive up data center energy bills).?

• Corporations specializing in building management and retrofits can form strategic partnerships with developers of innovative cooling technologies. These partnerships can focus on retrofitting large commercial buildings, such as hotels and office complexes, with advanced cooling systems that utilize off-peak energy for ice storage.?

For public sector innovators

• Municipal governments can initiate programs to retrofit public housing with region-appropriate and energy-efficient cooling systems. For instance, a city could fund a project pilot in a public housing complex, measuring the impact on energy use and resident comfort, and use the data to expand the program citywide. Such programs can typically fund themselves through energy savings over a five-to-10-year horizon.
• Governments can create incentive programs to encourage commercial entities to adopt advanced cooling technologies. These incentives could include tax breaks, grants, and low-interest loans for businesses that implement these systems.?

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

• The five stages of the Founder’s Hype Cycle.
• Harvard Business Review explains why Gen AI is going to replace remote workers first.
• Cyber insurance premiums are decreasing worldwide because businesses are better at reducing cybercrime losses.
• Ben Evans argues that gen AI is still in its half-empty, half-full, experimentation stage.
• Educators and universities aim to train specialists who understand both human body limitations and engineering design constraints to meet the evolving demands of human spaceflight.

?? ?Smaller countries are dollarizing their economies

Smaller countries are increasingly gravitating toward regional dollar blocks, a trend driven by economic instability, de-globalization, and shrinking demographics. Such geo-economic alliances will impact trade well into the decades ahead.

One example, Argentina, under President Javier Milei, is implementing sweeping economic reforms, including slashing the number of government ministries, halting public works projects, and devaluing the currency by 50%.?These measures aim to stabilize the budget and eventually dollarize the economy, replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar to curb hyperinflation, which has plunged 40% of the population into poverty. Argentina’s geography and young demographic profile suggest it could thrive if these reforms succeed.

The move towards dollarization or similar regional currency alignments is also influenced by the broader context of de-globalization. As global trade becomes more fragmented, countries with weak currencies will face increasing difficulty in maintaining economic stability.?

The instability of soft currencies will prompt nations to link their economies to more stable currency regimes like the dollar, yen, rupee, or pound. This trend is observed not only in Argentina but in other nations experiencing economic turmoil, where aligning with a stronger currency block is seen as a path to economic recovery and growth.

Dollarization strengthens a smaller country's promise to avoid devaluation, brings in stable prices and lower interest rates from the US, and lowers transaction costs while boosting economic ties with the US. (The same can be said for countries that align with an alternate currency.) However, this comes at the price of losing control over monetary policy and exchange rates. Without a central bank, there's no backup to handle financial crises.?

Additionally, such countries may need to rely on the US Federal Reserve for banking oversight, which further reduces their respective control but improves financial stability.

According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, dollarization is best for very small, open economies, countries trying to overcome hyperinflation, or those already closely linked to the US. Other nations might have to look for different exchange-rate systems that better fit their needs.

Actionable trend insights as emerging economies dollarize:

For corporate innovators

• Corporations can capitalize on the predictability of a dollarized economy by optimizing their supply chain and manufacturing operations. This includes relocating or expanding production facilities to dollarizing countries and taking advantage of the stable currency to reduce the risks associated with exchange rate volatility.?

For public sector innovators

• Governments can develop and promote digital payment systems/infrastructure that operate seamlessly with the US dollar, enhancing financial inclusion and reducing transaction costs. This can include building nationwide digital payment platforms, encouraging the use of mobile wallets, and integrating these systems with international remittance services.?
• Federal governments can establish sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that are denominated in US dollars (or an equally dominant alternative) and invest in diversified global assets. Such investments would provide small countries with a stable source of income and financial security, leveraging the strength of the dollar to achieve better returns and manage economic volatility.?

Outside curiosities

• Railbiking is becoming America’s next leisure attraction.
• You can now create an AI chatbot based on your personality.
• Germany built an arena just for Adele.
• All the Main Character Energy moments from the Olympics.
• Spotify backtracks on its plans to lock song lyrics behind a premium membership.

More from Quantumrun

• Read more daily trend reporting on Quantumrun.com
• Subscribe to the Quantumrun Trends Platform (free for premium newsletter subscribers).
• Corporate readers can review our Trend Intelligence Platform
• Email us at [email protected] with questions or feedback.

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See you in The Futures,

Quantumrun team