The Futures - No. 03
TLDR: In this issue
We cover why we keep experiencing technology panic, the developments in gene editing, how the education system is treating ChatGPT and geopolitical foresight on green energy economics.
The never-ending cycle of technology fear-mongering
Ever wondered why every time there is a disruptive technology, researchers, politicians, professors, and even your grandma suddenly become messengers of doom? A graduate of the University of Oxford for experimental psychology, Amy Orben,?created a four-stage concept called the?Sisyphean Cycle of Technological Anxiety?to explain this phenomenon. Sisyphus is a character from Greek mythology who was fated to eternally push a boulder up a slope, only for it to roll back down, forcing him to repeat the process endlessly.?
As illustrated by the chart below, the technology panic timeline is as follows:
A new technology appears?→?Politicians step in→?Researchers start focusing on popular topics to get funds→?After researchers publish their lengthy study findings, the media covers these results.?
The same doomsday approach is being implemented on generative AI.?Everyone is convinced it will displace millions of jobs, create a culture of lazy thinkers, and make disinformation and propaganda much easier. While these concerns do have merits, the technology is still relatively new, and no one can be entirely sure that it will not evolve to counter these trends. Yes,?AI can create disinformation campaigns, but?AI can also be used to detect them.?The World Economic Forum predicts that?by 2025, machines might replace around 85 million jobs; however, they could also generate?97 million new positions?better suited to the evolving collaboration among humans, machines, and algorithms.
We need self-awareness in various situations — an understanding of how we, individually and collectively, respond adversely to new experiences. For example, what were we once afraid of but now embrace? What lessons did we gain from these experiences? By answering these questions, we can integrate that knowledge into our actions.
Wider implications of technology fear-mongering may include:
Future signals to watch
Is gene editing becoming safer?
CRISPR-Cas9 is a popular gene-editing tool for finding new drugs and medical treatments. However, some research groups found that?this tool can cause unexpected gene changes that can potentially?trigger cancer.?Scientists at Recursion Pharmaceuticals dug deeper into the problem and discovered that?a tiny portion of cells experience "proximity bias."?Before editing, CRISPR-Cas9 accidentally creates a double-stranded DNA break that can harm genes close to the target gene on the same chromosome arm. Afterward, the body incorrectly fixes the damage, leading to proximity bias.?
Because of the great potential of genetic therapies, scientists are constantly looking for ways to make CRISPR-Cas9 safer. Researchers at Kyushu University and Nagoya University School of Medicine in Japan have developed?an?improved genome-editing method?that significantly lowers the rate of mutations, a fine-tuning system they called “safeguard gRNA.” The team is currently developing a start-up business plan to expand the reach of their new genome editing platform.
One of the most widely debated potential use cases of more accurate gene editing is the?early correction in human embryos.?However, initial studies in the field showed that the?technology is still?too unpredictable.?Scientists at Oregon Health & Science University discovered that fixing disease-causing mutations in early human embryos through gene editing may also result in?unexpected and possibly harmful genome alterations. The results provide a new caution for researchers considering using genetically edited embryos to initiate pregnancies. The quest for the perfect human seems to be a long way off.
Wider implications of safer gene editing tools may include:
Trending research reports from the world wide web
The education system doesn’t know how to deal with ChatGPT
The cheating industry is notoriously known for?hiring freelancers from emerging economies to write essays and homework for students in developed countries. Kenya is one of the?most significant hubs in the sector, where an average freelance writer can earn between USD $900 to $1,200 every month for what they call “academic writing.” However,?ChatGPT and other AI content services are taking over these jobs,?with some freelancers reporting their income has dropped to USD $500–$800 monthly.
In a?survey?of 100 educators and over 1,000 students by Study.com, it was discovered that nearly 90 percent of students used ChatGPT for homework, 53 percent used it to write an essay, and 48 percent utilized it for at-home tests. With these numbers,?offshoring content services may no longer be as needed (or cost-effective). Nonetheless, the cheating industry might still have an ace: The?schools’ increasing bans against AI-assisted tools.?Some academic writing providers in Kenya agree that ChatGPT can improve the quality and volume of their output.
Education systems are still at a loss as to how to integrate AI into the classroom but also teach students to use it responsibly.?Some institutions have taken a proactive approach and banned ChatGPT entirely. In January 2023, New York City became the first US school district to?ban ChatGPT?in its public schools. The Los Angeles Unified School District, which is the second biggest, also quickly took action to restrict access to OpenAI's website from their school networks. Similarly, Baltimore in Maryland, Oakland Unified in California, and Seattle Public Schools have implemented the same restrictions.?However, some universities, like Princeton and Cornell, are?more welcoming toward the tool, acknowledging its increasing influence in the future of work.?
Wider implications of ChatGPT in education may include:
Outside curiosities
Geopolitical foresight: The challenges of green energy economics
The Paris Agreement, the growth of ethically minded investors, the rise of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulations, and the attempts to break free from Russian oil are all putting?pressure on governments to aggressively invest in green energy. However, everyone is finding out that it’s uphill work. While the long-term costs of green energy may be comparable to fossil fuels,?financing the upfront construction costs is difficult.?
The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down investments in green energy infrastructure.?Wind turbine manufacturer Vestas reported delays in acquiring parts and alterations in work processes led to an additional?USD $10.8 million in expenses?during the first quarter of 2021, resulting in a USD $88 million loss. Moreover, there is the issue of inelasticity in energy costs.?As demand for specific resources increases during a green transition, the prices of materials like copper, aluminum, and lithium will also rise.?Copper production, in particular, can face a?shortage?due to the material also being heavily used in electric vehicles.
The primary strategy in this situation is not to abandon green energy projects but to deploy them where the geography and capacity align.?This technique means implementing solar in sunny regions and wind power in windy areas. An example is Australia, which is poised to become a renewable energy?superpower. There is also a need for better technologies, particularly in transmission, to efficiently deliver electricity from where it's produced to where it's needed. Achieving this requires multiple acts of governments to fund research and facilitate power transmission across different jurisdictions and power grids.
Wider implications of addressing green energy economics may include:
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See you in The Futures,
Quantumrun team