If tariffs win the battle and AI wins the war by getting most manufacturing jobs

The tariff policies being discussed to "bring jobs back" to the US might succeed in relocating manufacturing, but not necessarily in creating human employment.

Many of us who grew up in tech starting in the 80s remember when manufacturing was done in the US - before it was off shored and around the time automation and robotics were getting integrated into these smart factories.

With Generative AI there would be few jobs coming back to the US. The following summary is what the breakdown would be once Generative AI is introduced to the automation and robotics that have already been in place for decades in factories and manufacturing:

The following from Claude an AI Assistant from Anthropic -

If all manufacturing came back to the US with modern AI and robots:

• About 85-90% of old manufacturing jobs would disappear
• Only about 10-15% of jobs would remain for humans, mainly doing things like:
• Strategic planning
• Complex problem solving
• Physical repairs
• Managing major crises

Prices would:

• Go up by 10-20% at first (to pay for robots and AI)
• Come back down within 3-5 years because: Robots and AI are cheaper than human workers long-term
• No shipping costs from overseas
• Fewer mistakes in production