The Future Of Work: Predictions About Artificial Intelligence

I was on a panel today which debated on ‘The Future of Work: Predictions About Artificial Intelligence”. This is a fascinating topic which concerns us all. Not only for ourselves, but for our children too. There were three questions which were posed.

1. AI – what is the impact on human workforce and learning?

2. Is an evolution by design possible? 

3. Will AI bring equal rights for everybody?

Each of these questions are vast and have no right or wrong answers. In this article, I don’t intend providing any solutions, only my perspectives.

AI – what is the impact on human workforce and learning?

Imagine we are at the beginning of the Industrial revolution. There are fundamental changes taking place in agriculture, textile, transportation and economic policies. Mechanization is driving people from farmlands to factories. At the same time, Luddites are destroying machinery as they believe that their skills will be wasted since machines will replace their role in the industry. 

Think back about all that hysteria. Jobs were lost but industrialization produced new jobs and the net effect was positive. Productivity improved, and people got wealthier. It turned out that learning a factory job was not that difficult for an agriculturist. And when factories started getting automated, people moved to supermarkets. Again, it turned out that learning how to manage a cash counter wasn’t that difficult after all. 

Cut to 2018. Much of the same fear mongering and hysteria is gripping us in the wake of jobs getting automated. Will the impact again be net positive? Will AI create more jobs than it will destroy?

The short answer appears to be no. This needs some deep dive. 

Humans have two kinds of skills – physical and cognitive. The industrial revolution and the recent developments in robotics have helped machines do the physical work better than humans. Machines are already superior on the factory floor, in agriculture, in war and in fighting fire. However, in the cognitive area, humans have retained an advantage till now. In learning, communicating, understanding emotions, analyzing behaviours, machines have not yet beaten the humans. 

But all that may change soon. Along with the AI revolution, there are significant progress happening in life sciences. Engineers are now able to hack the human brain, understand the biochemical changes that drives emotions and behaviours. The results are extraordinary. Algorithms are now capable of making split second decisions if a child will jump in front of an autonomous vehicle and if the vehicle should swerve or brake. They can decide if money lent to a stranger will be paid back or not. 

These phenomena are not limited to one or two areas. It is beginning to become all pervasive. No job will remain unaffected by automation. But unlike the industrial revolution, this time it is going to be difficult for humans to learn new skills as they become far more sophisticated. Even for a moment, if we believe that with superhuman efforts a cashier will re-invent herself, the new job is likely to become prey to another automation. Volatility will rule. New skills will be required perhaps every 10 years. People will re-skill since a new job has mushroomed, but poof, it will disappear again, leading to another re-skilling. This is likely to take a toll on the mental health of a person. 

Is an evolution by design possible? 

If indeed AI has the power to run havoc on the workforce, how can it be controlled? Can we design it in a manner so that we avoid all its negative impacts?

Again, the answer appears to be no. 

New technologies are designed and developed by engineers. Protecting the interests of people are prerogatives of politicians and social activists. Common people don’t understand the good and bad effects of new technologies. If they did, they wouldn’t willingly give away their personal identifiable information freely to the tech giants who sell this information for profits.

If people understood that automation and AI will be taking their jobs, they would want to know how to re-skill themselves. Instead, we find a right-wing movement gaining ground across the world – from the US to Britain, Brazil, Indonesia and India. People think that outsiders are taking away their jobs and they are living in fear. Politicians are feeding this fear, dividing people, controlling them and gaining power. 

AI is freely available to anyone. Forget a devious individual who can use it for dreadful purposes; even a teenager who perhaps does not a have fully developed choice framework, may end up making a drone with an explosive attached to it, for playing a prank on a friend, with disastrous consequences. 

A good analogy here would be the use of a kitchen knife. It is available to everyone in the house. But it is used for cutting vegetables. Chances of it being used for murderous purposes is very slim. That is because of well developed social norms and the fear of extreme punishments, no matter whether the murderer lives in a communist state or a democratic one. These social and legal frameworks have taken centuries to develop and get ingrained.

The knife was invented and adopted despite its detrimental uses. Similarly, in an environment where technology driven developments are rapid and disruptive, we will adopt it first as there may not be enough time to understand their negative uses. Governments and social activists learn and align themselves over a period to understand and prevent adverse impacts. We will always experience the technology first, learn from its bad experiences, and in response, enact regulations to prevent its misuse. 

Will AI bring equal rights for everybody?

When we think about the internet, we feel it is democratic. It levels the playing field. The Arab Revolution which started in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and Yemen was fueled by the neutral personality of the internet. 

Equality is a powerful concept. The idea of everyone having equal rights can be inspiring. The smartphone and the internet revolution, which has consumed the world, makes us feel that we have conquered the challenge of inequality. Everyone now has access to the same information and there cannot be any hidden agendas anymore. Armed with information, humans across the world, irrespective of their gender, religion, ethnicity, origin or colour can now demand equality.

AI is perhaps a more powerful technology than the internet. But unlike internet, it does not level the playing field. There are data haves and have-nots. Those who own the data own the future. If we want to prevent the widening gaps between rich and poor, powerful and weak, strong and meek, we must regulate the ownership of data. In the long term, data hoarders will know enough about the deepest secrets of people’s lives and manipulate them to expand their power. 

Simultaneously, as automation keeps taking away routine jobs and new jobs get more demanding on specialized skill-sets, millions of people will be staring at unemployment and will risk becoming irrelevant. The consequences will be grim, and no easy solutions will be available.

We will be looking at the government for solutions and protection. The government can decide to slow down the impact of AI, reduce the shock and allow time for readjustment. At the same time, it can provide subsidies for learning specialized skills and bring about a profound change in imparting education. Or we may have to wait for radical shifts in the social, economic and political models since the present ones will prove to be inadequate to address the challenges.

I started this blog by highlighting that there are no right or wrong answers, only perspectives. It is an intellectual journey as much as it is a practical one. The idea of this blog is to stimulate further thinking and debate one of the most significant challenges of our times.

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About the author

Anindya Karmakar has led multiple initiatives at the cutting edge of digital connectivity, IoT, robotics, AI, analytics, paperless branch and remote advisory. He is passionate about the digital revolution which is underway. He simplifies and de-clutters digital jargons and concepts and presents them in layman's language.

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The views and opinions expressed or implied herein are my own and do not reflect those of my employer, who shall not be liable for any action that may result as a consequence of my views and opinions. The pictures used have been taken from the open internet and I don't claim any credit for them. If you would like them to be removed, please contact me.