The Future of Work: The Fourth Inning
Geoffrey Moore
Author, speaker, advisor, best known for Crossing the Chasm, Zone to Win and The Infinite Staircase. Board Member of nLight, WorkFusion, and Phaidra. Chairman Emeritus Chasm Group & Chasm Institute.
It’s spring of 2024, and as Major League baseball is getting underway, everyone in tech is talking about the future of work.? Let me suggest we are in the top of the fourth inning, a couple of runners on base, but still much to be decided (all with the understanding that an inning in tech lasts somewhere between one and two decades—and you thought baseball games were long!).? At any rate, here’s how I see it playing out.?
The first inning where tech made a definitive impact on work spanned the 1970s and 80s when the dominant paradigm was proprietary mainframe computing and the focus was on management information systems.? This was an era of control cultures where the mantra was plan your work and then work your plan.? IBM and Oracle were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around reports.
The second inning emerged with the rise of client-server computing in the 1990s, where the focus was on real-time business processes.? This was an era of competition cultures where the mantra was give me my objectives, give me my resources, and get the hell out of my way.? Microsoft and Cisco were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around documents.
The third inning emerged out of the tech bubble popping at the turn of the century, where the dominant paradigm transitioned to cloud computing combined with mobile applications, and the focus shifted from B2B complex systems to B2C volume operations.? This was an era of creativity cultures where the mantra was think different.? Google and Apple were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around transactions.
Now we find ourselves at the top of the fourth inning, initiated with the rise of artificial intelligence, where the focus is on as-a-service subscription business models, the economics of churn, and the importance of the customer experience.? This is an era of collaboration cultures where the mantra is put customer success before everything else.? The dominant players have yet to be determined, but we do know that workflows will be organized around outcomes.
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And that’s the point.? Information technology that began at the periphery of the business as a back office report generation utility has now migrated to the very core of the enterprise’s mission, vision, and values.? That’s why digital transformation is getting so much attention.? But how to transform, and how to use digital technology to ensure that customers achieve the outcomes they seek, is very much still a work in progress.?
That’s what I think.? What do you think?
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10 个月This provides an interesting explanation of tech "eras" or stages. Crossing the Chasm came out at the end of the first inning and beginning of the second (1991) and gave us a glimpse of how innovations become mainstream. Thanks for that Geoffrey! Tech went from back-office reports into front office documents and then into the core of the business (transactions and now outcomes). Outcomes have always been the real game, but tech is now focused there. I suggest everyone go back and re-read the last sentence--a few times. How to use digital technology to ensure customers get the outcomes they seek - that's the business challenge of today.
Retired, Hewlett Packard Inc and Agilent Technologies Inc Bachelor of Science Business Administration - San Jose State. Math/Chemistry - Canada College
11 个月Good points here. Remember the 80’s. Some of us do. Regarding IT, we aspired to do a couple of things. One was the “End of the Priesthood”, where IT was the gatekeeper for every report request, every enhancement. That’s largely behind us. But the second dream was to get beyond data, to information, and ultimately knowledge (which Peter Senge called the capacity for effective action). Now we are flooded with data (“transactions”). Are we going backwards? Can AI save us?
Delivery improvement specialist. Let's make a difference for the tāngata (people), whakahaerenga (organisations), and hapori (communities) we serve
11 个月Has the state of the scoreboard after the third innings sealed the fate of the game? The global enterprises that underpin much of modern technology now shape the future in step with their own vision, and in many cases we are effectively locked in to their products and services. Will they prioritise the capabilities and use of their platforms to enable and encourage the truely improved outcomes that customers’ seek, or simply to pursue greater control and profit?
What many forget to speak to is not only workflow but dataflow…still seeing vendors and customers struggling with the standardization of processes/workflows to ensure quality data inputs to drive the outcomes…which typically requires tons of change management…that’s really the transformational part…and AI needs lots of data, good, structured data to sing. Many value chains involve multiple systems so the integration challenge also persists when the data models don’t play nicely together…most SIs are still focused on technical implementation…so there is a big capability gap for most organizations to release trapped value…then the frustration comes, the software/vendor is blamed, and then a fresh cycle starts of evaluation, getting excited about the next tech promise, purchase, implementation, struggle to value…without ever addressing the underlying process issue(s). And all the while the Enterprise software industry as a whole perpetuates this since there is still good money to be made.
Learning Architect | Co-Active Coach | Bridging Skill Gaps for Impact
11 个月Great reading ?? Here's my opinion, it's pretty straightforward: It is all about the ‘I’ in IT. Unfortunately, people often prioritize the 'T' in their plan, neglecting the 'I'.