The Future of Urban Mobility

What will the future of transportation look like? And how is the automotive sector driving innovation to get there, amid uncertain and sometimes challenging times? In the next sections we try to answer these questions, using the language of the four megatrends commonly used by analysts; electrification, autonomous driving, connected car/services, and shared mobility.

As more people move to cities, there are several developments shaping what future urban mobility might look like. These include ride-sharing and ride-hailing, e-scooters and bikes (‘last mile’ transportation), and more efficient autonomous public transport, connected together and accessed through multi-modal or Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) platforms. To deliver this, we’ll need innovative designs of public spaces, technological innovation, reliable connectivity and private and public sector partnerships. This is where collaboration between OEMs, tech players, civil engineering and city authorities will be essential. And the benefits are substantial: it’s estimated that integrated mobility systems could produce benefits up to $600bn, including improved safety and reduced pollution.

Ride-hailing and ride-sharing has made huge strides over a short period, and is expected to grow further, at a CAGR of 19% from 2019-2023. It’s clear that OEMs are feeling the heat from the rapid growth of operators around the world (Grab, Uber, DiDi, Lyft..), with all investing in the space in a bid to maintain ownership of the customer and tap into new revenue opportunities. This has included full in-house solutions, or joint ventures, such as the recent collaboration of German rivals BMW and Daimler to create a suite of mobility services. While the desire for car ownership is not expected to evaporate overnight and will likely remain for some use cases, urban adopters are overall moving away from private ownership, boosting the ride-hailing giants. There is regional variation too, with some European cities embracing car sharing more readily than in developing markets where car ownership is still seen as a status symbol.

Then you have ‘last mile’ transportation, embodied by the dockless electric bikes and e-scooters that have exploded onto our streets. London is building ‘cycle superhighways’, New York aims to have 1800 of bike lanes by 2030, and Paris and Sao Paulo are integrating bike-sharing into the public transport system. E-scooters, which a couple of years ago were merely the proviso of children and niche hobbyists, have become a visual depiction of future urban mobility, as well as swallowing vast sums of venture capital funding. In 2018, 38.5 million trips were taken on e-scooters (just under half of all micromobility trips) from nothing in 2017 (see chart), firmly placing big players Bird and Lime among the fastest growing tech unicorns.

Scooters have become the testing ground for (among other things); clean, shared mobility in our cities via MaaS platform technologies, and features like GPS tracking / geofencing which support the required complex fleet operations management. They’re also a blueprint for how future urban mobility will be regulated. Here, clashes with cities have been significant, especially since the strategy in some cities was ‘rollout first, ask permission later’. Data privacy has become a major issue; scooter companies have been involved in several tussles with city authorities around data sharing, the outcome of which has implications for how autonomous vehicles and drones might be regulated. The data created by millions of journeys will be highly valuable to authorities in regulating our cities and designing new services, but operators have been reluctant to share, citing privacy as well as commercial concerns. This is a fast-moving issue, and we’ll likely see different cities approach it in different ways.

Integrated, multi-modal transport links are the future of urban mobility, where boundaries between private, shared and public transport are blurred, delivered predominantly by a mixture of clean public transport, and shared vehicles (self-driving cars, scooters or bikes). Cities around the world are investing in their public transportation networks, using autonomous features to reduce cost, and using data from IoT infrastructure to improve reliability and maintenance. Densely populated, high income cities such as Chicago, London and Singapore seem to be leading the charge here.

When it comes to urban mobility, there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach. While technologies and systems can be replicated across cities, there will also be significant variation, driven by differences in existing infrastructure, terrain, weather patterns, cultural attitudes, private and public sector investment and government cooperation.

A Shifting Talent Landscape: Recruiting in the Automotive and mobility sector

The transformation happening in the automotive and mobility industry is changing the human capital requirements to drive and support this.

We have already seen an increase in the demand for software skills, with areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and data science being particularly sought after. While OEMs still require top talent within mechanical design, fields like systems integration, robotics and software engineering are becoming more prominent as the new generation of automated, digitised manufacturing plants emerge. And while there’s a hype around autonomous driving, making it an attractive industry to work in, the skillsets required for these roles are still extremely niche, meaning that experienced candidates can command inflated salaries.

Driven by the explosion in connected services, there’s also been an increase in requirements for candidates with experience in digital product management. Emerging mobility business models often involve tight margins, making it essential that product development is managed by individuals with the capability to conduct detailed market analysis and testing to ensure the right products are released. Candidates with the right blend of technical and commercial skill are favoured, with UX and B2C experience often an advantage. A working knowledge of agile processes is also important to ensure timely completion of software products in fast paced competitive markets.

On the commercial, side, requirements are also changing. There is a significant amount of uncertainty characterising the industry: which business models will be sustainable in the new world, who will own the customer journey, and where new revenue streams will come from. This has created opportunities for strategic, collaborative professionals in business development and partnerships, with experience in digital, high-growth industries preferred. It will be these candidates who are forging the alliances and connections that will define the industry in the coming years.

In mobility, ride-sharing and ride-hailing organisations are requiring people with legal and regulatory knowledge around city transport, as well as contacts in and experience negotiating with governments, local authorities and transport authorities. The spate of controversies and bans concerning mobility giants such as Uber as well as many electric scooter firms (as recent tussles in Barcelona, Berlin, London show) means that getting the right people into these roles are business critical. Operations focused general managers (at a city, country or regional level) are also in high demand for these types of firm.

Finally, what leadership skills will be needed in the new world? The automotive industry is now a diverse landscape of players, so while experience requirements will vary based on the firm, there are several traits emerging that define good leadership across the industry. These include the ability to work cross-culturally, since the automotive sector is becoming more international, with growing influence from the East. The ability to harness disruptive technologies and steer the company through the exploration of new business models – in other words, not being afraid to ‘disrupt itself – is also a key factor. During times of complexity, disruption and uncertainty it’s also crucial that leaders encourage learning, upskilling and innovative thinking at an organisational level.

The broadening of the automotive value chain and the explosion of digital, connected services has caused a shift in the talent requirements of the industry. A traditional career path in the automotive industry used to be characterised by a long, often exclusive career with an OEM, with talented individuals gradually climbing the corporate ladder. Now, with more start-ups, this scenario is less common and indeed less desirable for many candidates. Many firms in the sector are welcoming candidates with experience in overlapping or different industries entirely, due to the high demand for talent and the fresh perspective that they can bring. Overall, it can be said that talent requirements in today’s automotive sector are characterised by a high demand for niche technical skillets, (software/data based), along with a need for strategic, technically minded, culturally fluent leaders to lead the industry through this period of change.

Wenham Carter is a leading executive search supplier to the global automotive sector, with a focus on high-growth areas like autonomous driving, new urban mobility, connected services and clean mobility. Our automotive team consists of a large team of vertically organised industry specialists, and with a focus on senior or specialist positions, we assist OEMs, technology players and start-ups navigate talent challenges to build world-class global teams. 

For more information, please contact me on [email protected] or +441273 648043