The future is unpredictable. Or is it?

This was the question posed by Brett Stuart, co-founder of Global Agri Trends, at #AgriVision 2023. After the global analytics forecaster and self-proclaimed data nerd read a book premised on the idea that anyone trying to predict the future is a fool, he thought carefully about his career choice. But on reflection, about the markets and his understanding of agriculture, he realised some trends are unmistakable – and he shared these with AgriVision 2023 participants. Stuart’s talk culminated in an optimistic message about the opportunities he believes the future holds for the livestock industry.

Megatrend 1: More mouths

Since 1800, we’ve added seven billion people to the world’s population, and are on track to reach nine or 10 billion by 2050. Stuart said that this incredible growth is one of the most interesting trends facing our industry. “If you could be involved in agriculture at any time in world history, when would you want to be involved? Now!” he said.

While the opportunities are vast, with one billion people already food insecure today – a situation he calls an “unacceptable” – we also face big challenges. Stuart says the problem is not production capacity. “Can we feed nine billion people by 2050? Absolutely, easily – if technology and productivity are allowed to spread globally.” He points to proof in the fact that while the U.S. and Europe have only 12% of the world’s dairy cows, they produce 45% of the world's milk due to technological advances. Despite having 76% of dairy cows, Brazil, India and China produce only 29%.

?Megatrend 2: More money

Stuart says the global middle class is set to rise by almost three billion people from 2014 to 2030 – and we’re already seeing the impact. “It is absolutely incredible what's happened in global food demand just over the last ten years.” He ran a correlation between the global GDP and global meat and poultry consumption data sets and found the trends line up almost perfectly. As GDP increases, Stuart predicts that in the next 10 years we’ll need 75 million more tonnes of protein to meet demand. He says this will lead to rising prices for proteins, along with more opportunities for our industry to invest in productivity. “What is the market telling agriculture? Make more food. And they're going to be telling us that with profit, with prices, with huge opportunities to invest in technology productivity in a way that can truly feed the world.”

Megatrend 3: China

Stuart calls China, the largest growing market for agriculture imports, “fascinating.” While the Chinese population is now stable, and actually moving into a decline that could last for the next 50 years, Stuart says we’ve learned from countries like Japan and Italy that, even with a declining population, you still need more agriculture because of rising incomes – and this is also true in China.

?“In the past year or so, China has doubled down on self-sufficiency. The Ministry of AG said food security – not military security – is a top priority.” He said the reality for China is that land is finite, while they have rising incomes in a steady population that wants more food. “Therefore, they have some tough decisions to make.” These trends have led China to lose self-sufficiency in almost every major commodity, becoming a major importer of corn, beans, rice, beef, pork, poultry, wheat and soybeans. “And this is a country that is very difficult to analyse, which will add uncertainty and volatility to our agriculture markets. If we end up in trade friction with China, leading to more trade actions, agriculture stands to lose the most.”

Megatrend 4: The wealthy 5% of the planet

Stuart talked about a major dilemma in agriculture related to the tension between the wants and needs of the wealthy and the 84% of the world that is currently in poverty. “Every farmer on the planet tracks yield and is constantly trying to improve productivity.” He mentions some buzzwords on the rise with consumers: organic, natural, antibiotic-free, free-range. “Every one of those practices reduces yield. This is the dilemma.” He suggests that the way to reconcile this dilemma is by preserving choice, which allows both producers and consumers to win. “Not everyone has $8 a gallon for organic milk. The inconvenient truth is that it’s socially irresponsible to legislate yield-reducing practices. With a billion people food insecure, now is not the time to legislate costs and regulations that reduce supplies.”

Sustainability opportunities abound for livestock industry

Stuart says that, while the livestock industry has been linked with higher emissions than it is actually responsible for, partially based on a later debunked 2006 UN report, there is no question it is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. He calls sustainability a fantastic opportunity for the industry. “This is all about sticks and carrots, right?” said Stuart. “The stick is legislation – having things forced upon you. The carrot is getting paid to make changes. The livestock industry works very well with carrots. You paint a target, and you give them some incentive and profit; they'll hit the target.”

He said sustainability presents big opportunities over the next five to 10 years, as more companies are forced to report their carbon footprints and need to buy offsets. “Where can we get offsets? If the livestock industry can figure this out – and there are a lot of ways to do it, including from feed additives – we're going to have a lot of carbon credits for sale.

Global dynamics ensure rising demand ahead

Stuart’s talk painted a picture of both threats and opportunities facing the global livestock industry in coming years, with the megatrends of more people and more money being clearly positive for global agriculture and the others a mixed bag. However, his overall message was an optimistic one – he believes that the global dynamics facing us ensure the agriculture industry will continue to see rising demand, and if the industry can adapt to the changes around us, its future is bright.