The Future of Unemployment....is not what it used to be.

Much is spoken of India’s demographic dividend and the fact that we are the “youngest” country in the world.  It is projected that in the best-case scenario, India's burgeoning youth population will boost earnings, savings, productivity and economic growth by reducing the so-called "dependency ratio" -- referring to people outside the working ages of 15 to 65.  This dialogue often overlooks the other side of the “dividend coin” – the fact that as legions of young people enter the workforce, the roles and expectations of the older and more "experienced" part of the workforce are changing radically.

Not so long ago, age and experience in India were respected, if not venerated. However, with the increasing pace of change of technology in the workplace - and technology disrupting traditional businesses, age and experience is no longer seen as a significant asset by many organisations and employers. "Hard" skills tend to get outdated and irrelevant faster than ever before.

Not so long ago, professionals would look forward to a ‘full career-span’, working till the government mandated retirement age of 60. And if they were still capable and lucky enough, then also to the possible retirement extension. Not so, any more. In most parts of the private sector this time of reckoning, now comes much earlier.  

Assuming one started working around 22, the typical career spans used to be 38-40 years. My bets are on the trend that for the white collar corporate professional of today, the “corporate career” span will average 25-30 years at best.  For many youngsters entering the workforce now, a "secure employment" will be much shorter. And this, at a time in which, advances in medical technology is driving up the life expectancy and quality of physically active life.  

Let’s look at some trends driving this evolution in work and employment:

• Advances in Digital technology has made many jobs obsolete or redundant. What made manual jobs like typing redundant years ago, will happen to a range of other professions. A 2013 study by Frey and Osbourne, titled The Future of Employment – How susceptible are jobs to computerisation, projected a greater than 90% likelihood that roles like telemarketers, real estate and insurance sales agents and claims processors – will not exist in 2 decades.  Even “decision-making” managerial and leadership roles are getting transformed – as the science of big-data and Analytics, is transforming where and how decisions are taken
• Increasingly, companies look for younger professionals, in their 40’s or even 30’s to take up business and functional leadership roles – which until a little while ago was the preserve of the senior executives who had earned their grey-hairs with many more years on the corporate treadmill.
• Successful professionals “make their money” to fill the retirement piggy bank, much earlier in their careers, and hence the financial imperative to continue working, declines – the call of doing something different, something more “meaningful” than doing the 9 to 9 grind and chasing targets, becomes louder
• It is also much easier now for professionals to work independently, and be as, if not more productive than in a corporate office environment, due to the ubiquitous connectivity, access to productivity tools, shared working spaces and specialised service providers

Welcome to the Future of Un-Employment! And this future is not what it used to be – to borrow an evergreen insight from a French poet, Paul Valery – which seems truer today than ever before.

So how do today’s professionals deal with the challenge and opportunity created by "reducing employment-spans and lengthening life-spans"

For years, we have looked at a "career", as a linear set of advancements largely in one particular domain of interest or specialisation. This assumption needs a rethink, for today's business professionals as "independent working" gathers momentum.

For inspiration and some learning – one could look at Sports. Professional Sportsmen have for long had to think about how to focus ones’ energies after a successful career – which in any competitive sport, does not span much beyond a decade or two at best. In physically demanding sports like athletics, gymnastics & swimming, sportsmen peak in their late 20s or even earlier. In games like football and tennis, we can count on our fingertips the greats whose careers stretched into their late 30s or early 40s. So how do successful, professional ex-sportsmen apply their energies at an age when physically and mentally they should be in the “prime of life”

Let’s look at premier league football in the UK. We may imagine professional footballers to live luxurious, decadent lives of retirement, in their country mansions and golf courses. Think again.  There may be the occasional Beckham, but according to XPro, 2 out of 5 professional footballers are bankrupt within 5 years from retirement!

The average playing career for a premier league footballer is 8 years. Many former players seek new employment in the media, move into coaching or management, invest in new “business projects” or discover entirely new careers – from running hotels to working in financial services. 

The Life of the Retired Professional footballer

Reinvention of one’s skills and focus at or before middle-age, which is inherent in Sports – will become a “mandatory” expectation for business professionals, particularly knowledge workers.

For further inspiration on career reinvention models, we could look closer home, at our favourite national sporting pastime. – Cricket. A closer look at the career choices of ex-cricketers after hanging up their boots, throws up 5 distinct reinvention models. More on that later.