The Future of transportation - Come 2022 the Metro Cities may overcome their parking problems

The Future of transportation - Come 2022 the Metro Cities may overcome their parking problems

A recent study by CRISIL research reveals if one drives less than 12,000 km a year it's cheaper to call a cab (see cover table) - Uber & Ola.

Cars are going to undergo a lot of changes in the coming years. One of the biggest you probably won't own one. Car ownership may not symbolise freedom of independence - it will be a rare luxury as more people migrate to dense cities where owning a car becomes a burden. The biggest challenge however would be for people have to be willing to give up the idea of owning their car- something that has been culturally ingrained over many decades amongst our upper middle and upper classes. It also takes away the unpleasant sides of ownership, such as parking and negotiating traffic jams. A trend is being witnessed where people sell are selling off their extra cars.

The Government has said NO to self driving cars in India. Even if it hadn't the chaotic traffic conditions and multiple variety of vehicles ranging from buses, cars to rickshaws to hand carts and cyclists not to mention bullock carts would cause jam to the artificial intelligence network that would put all these driverless cars motionless.

Here are some interesting findings of the markets in the western world sourced from American business newspapers and magazines.

  1. The looming introduction of self driving vehicles in the western world the entire model of car ownership is being up-ended and very soon may not look anything like it has been for the past century. Cars are no longer likely to be a cost but an asset. Drivers for instance, may not be drivers, relying instead on hailing a driverless car on demand, and if they decide to buy, they will share the vehicle- by renting it out to other people when it isn't in use. By 2022, 2023, the majority of transportation in major cities in the US will be on demand, shared and likely autonomous.
  2. Fewer people are making long term commitment to cars
  3. Start ups are springing up to develop services that this new ownership model demands.
  4. Creating whole new industries around self- driving cars and ride sharing
  5. There is an estimate that one quarter of miles driven through in the US may be through shared
  6. LA based Faraday Future envisions selling subscription to a vehicle- allowing people to use it for a certain no of hours in a day on a regular schedule and the choice of the car is not restricted
  7. Tesla is preparing to create a network of Tesla owners that could rent out their self driving cars, something like Airbnb rentals on wheels
  8. Study by Deloitte Consulting estimates that cost of personal car ownership is on an average 97 cents a mile today but could drop by two thirds in a world of shared, self driving vehicles
  9. Waymo, self driving tech unit of Google parent Alphabet Inc has begun public trials
  10. Like the airlines business where we see jets that have been in service for 50 years- the car will move in that direction. In response car companies are trying to meet that threat head on by experimenting with different ownership models
  11. Companies are making the interiors as comfortable as possible- running cars into living rooms on wheels. Replacing windows with video screens that creates a movie theatre 
  12. IDEO has developed "Pods" seats that can be adjusted to block a passenger from view of the others
  13. Other companies are working on ways to make cars recognise passengers digital profile that become more responsive to their needs- reminding calendar appointments 
  14. Some start ups are working on designing a robot taxi that takes the entire riding experience into consideration 
  15. Alcohol industry might see an increase in drinks consumption. Dealerships will also undergo change. Managing autonomous car fleets becomes a new line of business.

In keeping with the global trend the automotive industry in India will see a major disruption with electric and autonomous vehicle.

Arindam Ganguli

ex Global ceo --- E-mobility industry

7 年

Very well compiled. However, given the fact that changing human habits is a slow process, i believe the time lines will be longer. I also think small electric cars and bikes will continue in personal possession to take care short and quick journeys. Pace of change in India in this aspect may surprise everyone if the government really puts a lot of steam behind its much flaunted "Smart city" project. Will the TATAs, Bajaj's and Marutis survive this disruption or follow the footsteps of HMVs and HMs of this world? Lets wait and see.

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