The Future of Transport Planning - EVs

Introduction

News about the Electric Vehicles (EVs) are everywhere. This hot topic has received attention from various stakeholders and more and more EVs are now produced and sold to the public.

However, are the EVs the future of transport? And if yes, how can we include them in our transport models so that we can make predictions about how people will move from point A to point B in the years to follow?

A brief history of EVs

For many people EVs is very much a concept of the present and the future. But in reality, the thought of using electricity to power transport dates back well over 100 years. In fact, during the 19th century there were many experiments with EVs that took place. The first battery-powered electric motor was invented by Thomas Davenport in 1834. Electric carriages, cars and trams started to emerge however, there was a main issue with these vehicles. The batteries weren’t rechargeable and therefore they EVs could not be mass produced.

It wasn’t until the 1970s that the interest in EVs started to renew again. In the mid 90s several car manufacturers started investing in this technology and more models became available. However issues of power and range were still an issue until the late 2000s when Tesla launched its first Roadster. Today, the majority of the major manufacturers offer at least some electric or hybrid vehicles, and battery manufacturing is better than ever before.

EVs today

Sales of electric cars are soaring despite the difficult year for the car industry due to COVID and other circumstances. They more than doubled in just one year, from 3 million sold worldwide in 2020 to 6.6 million in 2021.

China in particular had a breakout year in 2021, almost tripling electric car sales from 1.2 to 3.4 million. Europe remains the second largest market for electric cars, with new registrations increasing by almost 70 percent to 2.3 million, roughly half of which were plug-in hybrids. In the United States, sales surpassed half a million for the first time, but the?overall market share of electric vehicles?remains far below that of China and many European markets.

China, Europe and the United States account for roughly 90 percent of global electric car sales, illustrating that e-mobility isn’t advancing at the same pace globally.

The growth in EVs is far from evenly distributed around the world. A handful of countries are leading the race.?

Norway is way out ahead. The Nordic nation is the No. 1 spot thanks to years of highly lucrative government incentives to promote EV sales. In fact, in 2021, close to 8/10 new passenger vehicles sold in the country were all-electric.

An interesting fact is that European countries take up seven of the top 10 spots on this chart. This is perhaps due to various tax policies incentivising EVs over gasoline-powered vehicles.

Major challenges

Encouraging people investing in EVs is at the heart of the efforts of many countries to improve sustainability and fight climate change. The recent sales of this type of vehicle suggest that we have reached a turning point. However, there are still some challenges that need to be overcome.

One of the biggest concerns for potential buyers of EVs is the infrastructure. Is there an adequate number of charging points to allow drivers to charge their vehicles away from home?

While most EV buyers will have a charging station at home, greater availability will allow for a broader customer base and therefore more penetration rate. For example think of those who live in apartments or don’t have a driveway for their vehicle. The availability of charging points across the network is very important for them.

Another worry that is related to the charging points is the range-anxiety that many people tend to have with the EVs. It is true however that many EV models are improving their range capabilities and moves are being made by several companies to create an EV battery that can generate a range of over 1000km.

Another major challenge for the EVs is how long it takes them to charge. When filling your vehicle’s tank with petrol this doesn’t take more than several minutes. However, charging an EV can take much longer from 15 mins to 48 hours, depending on the type of charger you are using.

New technologies are always expensive. Until the last 5-10 years or so, the cost of EVs was very prohibitive that only those who normally bought brand-new expensive cars could afford it. Prices won’t come down and the investment in the network won’t improve until there is mass market appeal.?

For this to happen, car manufacturers have to step in and drive this change.

They can start by simply highlighting the benefits of EV motoring, addressing people’s concerns, and offering practical and tangible solutions.

The switch to electric vehicles is inevitable for all of us, and although there are still questions around the environmental impact of manufacturing batteries, for the sake of the planet, the sooner we all switch, the better it will probably be for the network.

How to include EVs in transport models

We saw the history of the EVs, the current situation and we discussed about the challenges.

Are then the EVs the future of transport?

And if yes what can we do so that we make the transition better? How can predict how the implementation of EVs will impact the transport network? And what can we do to accelerate the process?

We are all experts in personal mobility, we do it everyday, we make decisions in order to get from A to B and we want that journey to be as easy and as pleasant as possible. But is it? Our infrastructure was built to serve a very different population than today with a very different technology, and this shows every time we can’t get to our destination easily. We continue to make small changes here and there like adding new roads or changing road layouts but is this like putting a plaster on a cut? And will we just cut ourselves again somewhere else?

So, what it actually comes down to, is…do we truly know where people are travelling to and from…and why?

To help answer that question, 100s of urban areas around the world are already using ?the CUBE software to work out the questions you can see below. The example in the background is Dublin where they have a local and national CUBE transportation model to understand how public transport is used today and how it will be used in the future. This is a typical digital replica of the transportation system.

The software users can now incorporate even more detailed choices for the traveler. ?For example they can test what will happen to the EV fleet for different levels of government subsidies, if we allow free parking to EVs, if EVs get signal priority, they can test different penetration rates, different charging times and driving range autonomy and of course different electricity prices.

Modelling these options in a digital twin of the urban area can also help to form policies and guidelines towards a greener transport network.

In summary, the EV revolution is already happening. There are still some challenges that need to be overcome however, urban planners and engineers need to start include EVs in their transport models to predict how their impact on the transport network.

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