The Future of Trade Policy: Is Change on the Horizon for eCommerce?

When President Trump assumed office in 2017, he inherited a significant trade policy adjustment—the?de minimis?threshold for duty-free imports, regardless of origin, had been raised from $200 to $800 under the previous administration. This pivotal change fueled explosive growth in eCommerce, allowing supply chains to optimize operations and fully leverage the benefits of?de minimis?

Today, trade and tariffs have returned to the forefront of economic policy debates.

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Will we soon see changes to eCommerce regulations?

Dialogues on 'origin-based policies' hint at a potential pivot that could apply tariffs regardless of value. If implemented, this would mark a dramatic departure from the current value-based model, fundamentally reshaping the eCommerce landscape.

While such a policy could introduce greater complexity and pose challenges for businesses, it also holds the potential to foster greater transparency and alignment across global trade systems.

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The Role of Data in Trade Enforcement

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is increasingly leveraging big data to enhance enforcement capabilities. Advanced data analytics could enable CBP to further refine focus in two key areas:

???? 1. Frontline Priorities: Safeguarding health, safety, and security through targeted interventions.

???? 2. Back-End Operations: Aggregating data to identify and pursue revenue collection opportunities based on the origin of goods.

By integrating these capabilities, CBP has the potential to address immediate enforcement needs while reimagining trade compliance on a broader scale.

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The Accountability Challenge

Any origin-based policy would bring new layers of accountability to businesses. Companies may need to adapt to:

?? ????? Clearer Compliance Responsibilities: Redefining who is accountable for trade compliance within the supply chain.

?? ????? Greater Financial Obligations: Managing costs tied to the declared origin of goods.

?? ????? Enhanced Collaboration: Strengthening transparency and cooperation across supply chains to ensure adherence to evolving regulations.

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The Only Certainty is Change

eCommerce has revolutionized global trade, but this rapid growth brings inevitable regulatory changes. As trade policies evolve, businesses must remain agile, informed, and ready to adapt. Given the scale of eCommerce whether change is incremental or transformative, the impact is certain to reverberate across industries.

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The question isn’t whether change is coming—it’s when and how it will redefine the global trade landscape.

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