Future Today #139 - Risks · Anthropocene · Immortal · Futures Lab · Scenarios
David Alayón
Chief Executive Officer @ Innuba · Innovation Advisor @ Mindset · Fellow @ Acumen · Professor @ IE & Headspring · Author of UPGRADE · Futures & Foresight enthusiast
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?? AI for social good: Improving lives and protecting the planet . Advances in AI have accelerated dramatically over the past two years, marked by an ability to design, train, and—most important—run AI at a large scale and for many millions of users. AI’s potential impact spans sectors and could deliver positive social change. In fact, AI is already being used to further all 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—from the goal of eliminating poverty to establishing sustainable cities and communities and providing quality education for all.
?? Risks on the horizon . Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This study presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches.
?? UN Futures Lab . The UN and international policy-making and programming transitions from short-term reactions to long-term sustainable choices. To support the development of foresight capabilities, promoting a sustained emphasis on long-term vision in policy-making and programming. Our work extends across global, regional, and country levels, within each UN entity, across the UN System and beyond.
??? How an incoming UK Government should approach AI . The manifestos for the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrats parties all refer to AI in either high-level, generic terms, or as part of low-level tweaks to the status quo. Neither approach is commensurate with the significance of the challenges facing the UK. New policies and new ways of governing are required, and AI can play a role only if it is focused on supporting concrete outcomes. This means integrating AI skills and expertise into the core of policy making across all levels of government. AI specialists must be available to support this, not sequestered into silos.
?? AI Overreliance Is a Problem. Are Explanations a Solution? In theory, a human collaborating with an AI system should make better decisions than either working alone. But humans often accept an AI system’s recommended decision even when it is wrong – a conundrum called AI overreliance. This means people could be making erroneous decisions in important real-world contexts such as medical diagnosis or setting bail, says Helena Vasconcelos, a Stanford undergraduate student majoring in symbolic systems.
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?? If Ray Kurzweil Is Right (Again), You’ll Meet His Immortal Soul in the Cloud . Ray Kurzweil rejects death. The 76-year-old scientist and engineer has spent much of his time on earth arguing that humans can not only take advantage of yet-to-be-invented medical advances to live longer, but also ultimately merge with machines, become hyperintelligent, and stick around indefinitely. Nonetheless, death cast a shadow over my interview with Kurzweil this spring. Just minutes before we met, we both learned that Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize–winning psychologist and one of Kurzweil’s intellectual jousting partners, had suffered that fate.
?? 2024 Technology Predictions . For 2024, the technology predictions panel expanded by 11 people, now totaling 46 members. This growth was fueled by the need for more diverse perspectives and technology areas, including power and energy. The panel has made 21 predictions, with each technology being graded for its potential for success in 2024, impact on humanity, predicted maturity, market adoption, and horizon to commercial adoption.
????♂? This MIT Chatbot Simulates Your ‘Future Self.’ It’s Here to Help You Make Better Decisions . Chatbots are now posing as friends, romantic partners, and departed loved ones. Now, we can add another to the list: Your future self. MIT Media Lab’s Future You project invited young people, aged 18 to 30, to have a chat with AI simulations of themselves at 60. The sims—which were powered by a personalized chatbot and included an AI-generated image of their older selves—answered questions about their experience, shared memories, and offered lessons learned over the decades.
?? We don't want to die in the Anthropocene . Emilio Santiago, senior scientist at CSIC and author of the book ‘Against the Myth of Ecological Collapse’ (Arpa, 2023), believes that downplaying the climate crisis is almost as suicidal as being paralyzed by fear. He warns that ecological collapse-ism is counterproductive to transforming our economic model.
? Future scenario maker . Enter your main product or service, your industry and a future year to generate a scenario. Use it for brainstorming, strategy development or storytelling. An AI Tool by Board of Innovation.
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn - Alvin Toffler
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