The Future of Switch

Just last week we talked about June being the most exciting month for gamers. Most big companies announce some sort of roadmap for their studios and consoles, so gamers know what to look forward to. We heralded Xbox’ excellent showing, while predicting Nintendo’s roadmap as ‘probably just getting through the final stages of the Switch’ lifecycle’. Well, lesson learned, because this week, Nintendo proved yet again to never bet against them.

It's no secret there’s a new Switch on the horizon, coming presumably in 2025. Nintendo said as much and also gave a heads-up earlier this year that they won’t be talking about or showing their new console this year.

A regular, risk-averse company would use the year prior to releasing anew console with some caution. You want the new console to have as big of a start as possible. Selling as many consoles as you can in the early days, means you’ll build your install base faster. The bigger your install base (consumers in possession of your console), the more attractive it becomes for third-party publishers to make games for your platform. The more games are coming over, the faster your install base grows. It’s a familiar domino effect meaning that the early months of a console release is often indicative of the success a console will have in its entire lifecycle.

Something old, something new

The other side of this coin is the install base you’ve already got on your ‘old’ hardware. Since 2017, Nintendo has sold an insane amount of over 140 million Switches. That means any game you reserve for the launch of your new console, is a game not coming to those 140 million consumers you’ve already got. With Nintendo’s games often going for €50-€60, that’s a whole lot of money you’re missing out on.

So, these last few generations, console makers have been double dipping. Make a few games exclusive to the new console, but mostly publish the same game on both old and new hardware. The trick here is choosing the right release dates. Dumping those games on old hardware too far ahead of your new, and consumer enthusiasm as well as marketing campaigns for those titles won’t do you much good when your new console comes out months later.

Because Nintendo is, well… Nintendo. And predictability just isn’t in their nature.

Zelda, Mario, Metroid

The easy answer to carrying out this balancing act is as follows: release a bunch of new games during the release of your new hardware, while making sure the majority are also playable on your old hardware. Makes sense, right? It does. And that’s exactly why Nintendo doesn’t do it. Because Nintendo is, well… Nintendo. And predictability just isn’t in their nature.

So, when gamers sat down for a Nintendo Direct this week (Nintendo’s version of presenting their roadmap for this year through a digital showing), everyone was shocked to see multiple big franchise bangers being announced for this year for the good ol’ Switch.

A new Zelda-game (Echoes of Wisdom), where you play as the titular Princess Zelda instead of green tunic-wearing Link, is hitting stores this September. October will see a brand new Mario Party-game releasing and an amazing looking Mario & Luigi-game called Brothership is dropping in November. Nintendo also showed off the long-awaited Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, with a release date for 2025. No doubt this is one of the games where they’ll double dip, making it available on both the regular Switch and the new console.

Ending on a high note

Not only are these announcements great news for gamers in 2024, it’s also an enticing prospect for the Switch 2 release in 2025. Nintendo getting all these games ‘out of the way’ on the original Switch instead of saving it for the upcoming Switch 2 release, means the company is fully confidant in whatever it is they have locked and locked for 2025. NO doubt whatever that is, is even bigger and expected to be more impactful than anything they showed this week.

In the end, nobody expected the Switch to go out with a bang like this. And everyone learned a lesson we’ve learned so many times before in the last decades: never bet against Nintendo.