?? FUTURE SCENARIO PROCESS in "5 E" Steps

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?? FUTURE SCENARIO PROCESS in "5 E" Steps

??? The future belongs to those who get there first. And, yes, the future is predictable. I've been doing it successfully for 40 years. So ignore those who say otherwise.

??? Trends exist, and new ones will occur. You have to anticipate and imagine them, and how they might change and interact, over what time periods.

??? Scenarios do not predict the future but they describe possible alternative "what if" future trends -- to in fact help you to indeed predict the future.

??? But they require you to confront established beliefs to develop alternative potential visions with a sharpened focus and realistic expectations.

??? Hence, they reduce uncertainty about trends, so that you can make better-informed decisions today, always with the future in mind, to get ahead of those trends.

??? This is done in "5E" steps:

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?? PHASE 1: ENFRAME

??? Set a time frame and scope of a desired baseline future for mutual stakeholder objectives – which themselves might be changing.

??? Consider how quickly changes can occur, including wild card or black swan events, and assess to what degree it is possible to predict trends important to your business, in the next 3 to 5 to 10 years, or as long as 25 years.

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?? PHASE 2: EXPLORE

??? Derive insights by studying key signals and driving forces of Social, Technical, Economic, Environmental, and Political ("STEEP") trends, along with their various uncertainties, constraints, problems, and opportunities.

??? Understand how these STEEP trends invariably interact with and influence each other.

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?? PHASE 3: EXPERIMENT

??? Brainstorm all trends to avoid possible group thinking and tunnel vision.

??? Research and select 3 potential scenarios (worst, best, and average cases). Avoid selecting the pure best-and worst-case scenarios but use them as boundaries.

??? Describe each case in detail, including what might happen and why, and assess and rate their likely outcomes.

??? Give each scenario a descriptive and distinctive name to ease reference and communication.

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?? PHASE 4: EXTRAPOLATE

??? Evaluate and discuss each case across all internal business functions to gain new insights.

??? Assess whether more information is needed that would suggest needed modifications. Assess each scenario in terms of relevance to the overall objective, their relevancy, timeliness, and the desirability of their outcomes.

??? Develop models to quantify the outcomes of each scenario, in terms of ROI, etc.

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?? PHASE 5: ENGAGE

??? Develop a roadmap for strategic implementation of the most robust scenario.

??? Decide and communicate the final scenario adoption, with strategic decision points and a built-in ability to detect early warnings of needed changes and pivot as needed.

??? Implement and pursue the final strategic plan.

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?? IN SUM …

??? If you need any help whatsoever in developing your own future scenarios and strategies -- so that you can indeed own the future -- please contact me.

??? Your future is my business. :-)

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