The Future

A new year has begun – 2020, in case you still need to adjust your watch – and brought with it a myriad of predictions, forecasts, bets and guesses on 2020, the decade and beyond. I had a chance to review some of those and come up with my own insights – also informed by my work and the conversations I had over the years with people working in technology, business and policy around the globe. Here, you will find a compilation of highlights on several predictions I’ve read and my insights on the years ahead.

To get started, I listed some of the most interesting documents and thought pieces I’ve seen around. I hope such inventory can be a resource for those who are interested in knowing more about the topics (the links to the documents are included in the text), but also support future checking and assessment.

Most of the things I read and the sources I follow are about (or at the intersection of) technology, business and global issues. On the one hand, these are the topics that excite me and get most of my attention professionally; on the other hand, I sincerely believe that we need to combine those perspectives (and others) to grasp on and be capable to minimally understand and improve today’s increasingly complex reality.

Photo by Dan Roizer on Unsplash

The world in 2020 and beyond: what is next?

The list below includes a diverse set of reports and opinion pieces. It is not extensive, nor was developed with the intent to follow any particular directions – it is just a list of readings that I found interesting. It combines different types of things, from long and well-prepared reports to short collections of opinions, from documents resulting from global surveys to others created out of the mind of the authors. They were published by global think tanks, banks, research companies, media outlets, individuals who work in business and technology.

Peter Diamandis and his team mapped 20 technology-enabled megatrends that will dominate the decade. The continued increase of global abundance is the overarching trend and many of the others are related to health, expanded longevity and the augmentation of human (and humanity) capabilities and possibilities. I found particularly interesting the idea that advertisement will be disrupted – we shall all keep one eye on this; better, keep an AI on this.

For the third year in a row, CB Insights has created a map of the startups that can potentially change the world in 2020. Such map is organized in 12 hard technology (I borrowed this terminology from you, Pedro) categories – e.g. photonics, quantum, genetics etc. The underlining message is clear: deep scientific knowledge and research (in other words: investments in science) are behind the “transformational” potential of the ventures highlighted in the report – sorry Brazilian friends, digital entrepreneurship is great, super important and on a steep rise in our country, but it is not enough to fundamentally change the world. The list of companies presented is worth of checking and following.

Deloitte released a series of predictions on technology, telecommunications and media for 2020. They signalize towards digitization, increased abundance, the democratization of access and the eminent disruption of certain industries and business models – like paid TV, for instance. It was curious to note that cycling was included in the report. In spite of depicting a general trend, it marks that the ways through which people access networks and consume content will continue to vary significantly across the globe.

Gartner presents a series of strategic (why strategic? don’t ask me…) predictions for 2020 and beyond. Those are at the intersection of technology, business and consumer behavior. The focus on individual and collective behavior stands out. Gartner predicts that corporations will find it increasingly hard to succeed in digital transformation – my personal saying: “digital transformation” is essentially analog, it is about mindsets, human build systems, beliefs, behaviors, protocols and institutions. It is easy to talk digital transformation, but very hard to implement it if you think it is about tech. For those interested, I suggest Tony Saldanha’s book.

Forbes invited 25 thinkers to contribute ideas that will shape the 2020s. It called my attention that many ideas are about the participation of women in society, business and governance – we have data to support the idea, for sure. Some of the predictions are about specific technologies (e.g. the end of the internal combustion engines), but the most important message in this piece is that ideas shape the world and we should not neglect their power – and a new set of ideas is emerging and replacing some of today’s predominant lines of thinking. Stay tuned.

Mark Minevich, a friend and GFCC fellow, tells a story about the Workplace of 2030 . It is an interesting depiction of a scenario that combines different technologies already around or announced to be under development. It is a good reminder that a positive future scenario arising from the combination of several new technologies is very plausible, but many challenges lie ahead in society – the transition will not be an easy one.

David Schwab foresees the future of Influence in a piece published at Forbes. It could also have a title like “the future of marketing or “the future of how to make people want things”. Fame has been democratized – influencers and celebrities seem to come from every and anywhere now – it’s the influencers’ age, I agree with you Mauricio. It called my attention how technology will enable consumers to have personalized access and engage with influencers – or their digital avatars, also becoming part of real-time creation processes.

Inc published a list of 25 tech predictions for 2020. Most of them are about how businesses will use technologies like AI and 5G, or the new things that will attract investment. Nevertheless, what called my attention were the predictions related to customer/citizen behavior: a backlash against mass media and fake news and an increased emphasis on privacy can be expected. The emergence of new organizational forms and the disproportional risks that cyber-crime poses to SMEs are also worth of noting.

Omidyar Network identifies 5 emerging trends that will drive change in big tech in 2020 and beyond. They are mostly related to the emergence of new expectations, types of demands and a reconfigured power balance between users and digital companies, governments and big corporations – I imagine this is related to your work Agustin. The narrative highlights the importance of and suggests the need (and demand) for a more diverse digital landscape, not solely dominated by behemoth digital platforms. Tough game. It will get tougher.

Deutsche Bank’s Imagine 2030 is a thought-provoking document – one of my favorites. I like the diversity and richness of the ideas, which can even be contradictory, and think it is the most creative document listed here. Technology is central for many of the predictions but the thoughts on the emergence of new dynamics and demands in society must be highlighted – the return of labor unions, the end of high corporate profits, tensions between generations and the return of social sciences. Naturally, it also covers finance and Europe.

The European Council on Foreign Relations foresees 10 (plus one) foreign policy trends that will occupy the attention in Europe. I was particularly interested to see that clean energy policies are perceived as potentially divisive topic in Europe, to the same degree that immigration has been for some time. The theme of succession in several countries should also be noted, as those processes will inject additional uncertainty to an already complex world.

WEF’s Global Risks Report was first launched in 2007 and results from a survey with global decision-makers. Climate-related issues grew in importance over the years and became indisputably dominant in its 2020 edition – the underlining message is that sustainability should be the priority topic for all of us. Other relevant topics are related to technology risk and/or result from the interactions among other issues. Arguably, the risks we are likely to face in the years to come are increasingly connected and systemic – for instance: climate change is very likely to fuel social rage.

Kearney, which started 2020 with a re-brand, presented 10 predictions for 2020 that reinforce several of the others here commented, particularly in relation to geopolitical challenges – on Earth and space. One distinctive aspect is that it provides visibility to some emerging opportunities for business: the disaster economy, water, the halal economy. In addition to that, it comes with a check in relation to what was predicted for 2019. Good job!

Photo by John Barkiple on Unsplash

Connecting the dots

So… this is how I read all the above trends and predictions. This is my take on the issues, challenges and opportunities in front of us, right now, at this very moment.

1.    The world is increasingly complex. The emergence of new types on actors and demands in society, increased volatility in political systems, global connectivity, the exhaustion of political representation systems (including Western democracies) and, especially, the proliferation of new themes and topics we need to address (e.g. privacy rights, gene editing, space exploration, loss of biodiversity, terrorism etc.) make all aspects of life, business and governance much more complex than in any previous time in history.

2.    Tech growth became mainstream. The fact that technology grows exponentially has become widely accepted. In the Age of Disruption, it is not a mere strategy/operations decision area, but the dominant factor shaping the trajectories of companies and even nations. It has to be at the core of strategies in business and national policy. Nevertheless, saying is much easier than doing and most countries lack institutions and capabilities to positively leverage technology potential – they may remain at the margin. 

3.    Reality and truth have died. The notion that reality actually exists was always debatable from a philosophical point of view – but that is a different story. Now, complexity and technology make it extremely hard for people to make sense of what is real or not – because of the variety and intricate relationships among issues, social media manipulation and deepfake. Narratives matter more than facts and shape society and the economy; they are powerful. Get ready for the next elections and the times ahead.

4.    The global economy has new commanding heights. Dominance in critical technologies may give the ability to command the global economy. As I wrote in A New Manufacturing Era, countries are pursuing strategies to (1) accelerate the adoption of new technologies and business models and (2) to build an edge in key technology domains. There is a profound distance between those that understand that difference and those that don’t. Science is the basis for the second case, a premium league game where the fiercest competition lies. What game is your country playing?

5.    The human-machine marriage (or merge) comes with challenges. It is already happening, we are merging (maybe sooner than we think), we have always been – we live with and in technology. While it has allowed us to live better and better, new challenges arise with today’s speed of change – the most visible is related to work: many jobs may disappear in the short term and transitioning people to new occupations will be tough. The lifespan of companies in shrinking and businesses may struggle to transform and we are just learning about the impacts of online life in youth. People, businesses and societies have a lot to learn. Can that be accelerated too? Are we ready?

6.    We will see balancing feedbacks in action. For every action, there is a reaction, said Isaac Newton. Society and the economy are complex systems and feedback loops will act to control some of the effects of technology growth – like the loss (end?) of privacy. Expect to see advocacy groups gain strength and activism to build in relation to privacy, jobs, the power of big tech corporations, inequality, consumer rights, voice in democracy, equal access to opportunities, policy decisions and machine autonomy. We will see a reinvigorated social dispute for the ideas that shape the order of things.

7.    A renaissance of humanities may come. As decisions, including life and death ones, will be increasingly made by algorithms (yes, they will), ethics will assume renewed relevance. We may also feel the need to be more connected, to connect with our humanity and assure ourselves as creators, a phenomenon that would boost interest in arts and humanities and build demand in business for people with well-trained creativity skills. But stay alert: competition will come.

8.    Human systems constrain prosperity. In the past, companies and institutions had time to adjust to technology change, they don’t anymore. Old business, policy and thinking frameworks are being challenged and transformation became a major topic across sectors. However, corporate immune systems resist to change and, in government, some statistics say that more than 80% of transformation initiatives fail – my experience suggests it is much higher than that. Transformation at all levels is about institutions, the rules of the game, believes, power, mindsets. At the end, it is all about people.

9.    There is a non-evident space for new businesses. It is hard to understand faraway and/or emergent realities, but many opportunities lie at the edge of business as usual. As some predictions above point out, there opportunities in the Islamic world, the digital platforms space – new players want to be alternatives to Amazon’s business dominance and startups are creating solutions to enable merchants to compete – and to respond to fast-developing pressing global situations. Look beyond, think differently.

10. Consumption, production and influence are blurring. Consumers are increasingly engaging with companies throughout product lifecycles. Influencers are changing commerce in the digital economy and we are likely to see ourselves directly engaging with them or their avatar and becoming ourselves nano or micro influencers; taking part in the design of personal consumer products may become an part of consumer experience. Community engagement capabilities will be key for everybody.

11. Climate change changes everything. Greta Thunberg is mad and we should all be – climate change may render the planet uninhabitable and, ceteris paribus, we are denying future generations the right to experience nature. The good news is that youth is increasingly vocal and young consumers are driving change in global brands – it is coming from the bottom-up. To address the biggest challenge we ever faced as a species, we will need innovation. It is easier for new businesses to be green or carbon neutral than for corporations – as seen before, transformation is tough, as companies have huge footprints, sunk costs and immune systems, but needed and doable (even going carbon negative is at reach – Microsoft will a great case to follow). Climate crisis will reshape finance and everything else – imagine the opportunities for new products, processes, energy sources, business models, supply chain configurations, infrastructures and more. Hopefully, climate change will turn to be the greatest opportunity of all time. We will need to re-imagine a lot of things – more to come on this, stay tuned.