Future of Renewable Energy in Pakistan

Countries around the globe are turning their attention towards renewable energy as the world aspires to accelerate the deployment of these technologies. In 2014 renewable energy provided 23% of global power generation, a share that may reach 45% by 2030, as indicated in the global REmap analysis by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA,2016a). Nationally, shares of renewable energy are expected to range from as low as 18% to as high as 94% by 2030 in the 40 different REmap countries analyzed by IRENA. In line with this global trend, Pakistan has also set out ambitious targets of 20% by 2025 & 30% by 2030 through its newly imitated Alternate & Renewable Energy policy of 2019. It is said that some things are easier said than done. The same is true in the case of Pakistan. Stricter regulations on conventional thermal power plants, additional monetary & regulatory incentives to VRE developers/manufacturers along with other friendly policies can pave the way for achieving VRE targets.

As the ambitious shift towards renewable energy proceeds, different long-term scenarios – generally defined as covering the next 20-40 years – must be developed and reviewed, specifically to assess and compare the cost-effectiveness of different transition pathways. Various modeling tools are available to support such assessments. Energy policymaking has always benefited from quantitative scenarios created with these tools, using them to define long-term policy goals and the most economic investment pathways to reach them (Mai et al., 2013).

Unfortunately, in the case of Pakistan Transmission operator has failed to translate long-term policy goals into reality. A country with a hydro potential of more than 100 GW and Wind potential of 50 GW is still betting on local coal to fulfill its energy needs. Although reliance on RLNG is reduced from 26% in the Year 2020 to 11% in the Year 2025 and then to 1% in the Year 2034 and beyond. Similarly, shares from imported coal have reduced from 18% in the year 2020 to 1% in the Year 2047 but still local coal accounts for 36% of the energy mix compared to Solar wind which is merely 15% of the energy mix in the Year 2047. At present Renewable shares is 3%, which is expected to increase to 23% in the Year 2025 and then again reduce to 15% from the Year 2031 & beyond.

There seems to be no development in the field of Hydro pumped storage as well. They are not considered in the long-term expansion plan. The use of this technology can provide a good alternate for RLNG based OCGT planned for catering intermittency of VRE. Pakistan still has a long way to go but the first step in the right direction has been taken. 

Pakistan Renewable Energy Policy

A major component of electric power generation in Pakistan comes from thermal resources (gas & crude oil). This is followed by Hydro, Renewables & Nuclear respectively. The first renewable energy policy in Pakistan was developed in 2006 which expired in 2018. This policy marked the development of renewable energy in the country. This policy introduced strong economic incentives in order to attract investment remove barriers to project implementation. As a result of this policy, 1248MW of wind, 430MW of solar, and 369MW of Bagasse/Biogas have been installed into the system. Alternate & Renewable energy Policy of 2019 (ARE-2019) provides the roadmap for further realizing the full potential of Renewables in Pakistan yet promoting competitive pricing. According to this policy, the Government of Pakistan has set an ambitious target of 20% by 2025 & 30% by 2030. Some technologies covered under this policy are:

• Biogas using organic material
• Biogas (including but not limited to bagasse, agricultural waste & other waste)
• Energy from waste (including but not limited to municipal waste, industrial waste)
• Geothermal
• Hydrogen
• Synthetic gas (made from any source except fossil fuel)
• Ocean Tidal wave energy
• Solar (PV/Thermal or any technology that uses heat/light of the sun to make electricity)
• Storage Technology (including but not limited to battery systems, cells of all types, compressed as)
• Wind (Onshore/Offshore)

Hybrid of any one of the above technology

The main objectives of the policy in terms of the power system are

• Protect the environment by increasing the share of green energy in the overall mix
• The least-cost on-grid generation

Generation Capacity Expansion Plan by Transmission Operator

The transmission Operator devised an Indicative generation expansion plan with the following objectives in mind:

• Aggressive Inclusion of Variable Energy Resources
• Minimal reliance on important coal & RFO based Technologies
• Increased share of Hydro Power as well as local coal

This indicates that by the year 2030, 76391 MW of generation capacity will be required to feed system demand of 43820 MW. This includes 10327 MW from wind & 12793 MW from Solar. For reserve provisioning to mitigate intermittency from renewable energy, 4868 MW of Open Cycle GT (OCGT) will be required on RLNG and 6055 MW from Steam Turbines on Thar coal. Generation from Hydro resources is expected to be 20737 MW.

Similarly, in order to meet the demand of 103065 MW by the Year 2047, 68246 MW of nominal generation is required. The generation is optimized as follows:

·       Steam Turbines on Thar Coal => 32948 MW

·       Combined Cycle GT (CCGT) => 4749 MW on RLNG

·       Open Cycle GT (OCGT) => 25828 MW on RLNG

·       Hydro => 55836 MW

·       CASA Import => 1000 MW

·       Nuclear => 4407 MW

·       Imported Coal => 5297 MW

·       Solar => 26921 MW

·       Wind => 10327 MW

It is interesting to note that a major shift in energy resources is seen. Share from the coal in the energy mix has increased to 36% whereas hydropower accounts for 42%. VRE accounts for only 15% of the overall energy mix. In addition, no more wind power is planned beyond 2030.