The Future of the Future is the Present - Part 1
Learning the Future
This article is a documentation of my decades-long learning journey toward understanding the concept of “the future of the future is the present,” and how I apply it as future thinking in my course of work. There are three main areas within this mental model, which I will be covering, that of the Extension of Man, “Jobs to be Done,” and Business Model 2.0 by Tetsuro Kondo.
Extension of Man
I first encountered the works of Marshall McLuhan 20 years ago, and I have been a great fan of his ever since. “Extension of Men” is one of his notions that has stuck with me for quite some time and has helped me to ponder and be curious about mediums and how they work.
What Marshall McLuhan saw is that all media and technology are the extension of human faculties, either physical or psychic.
“The wheel is an extension of the foot, as it ‘extends’ the capacity for human travel by enabling the covering of distances beyond what is capable by mere human locomotion. Clothing and housing are extensions of the skin and body, increasing capabilities for shelter and protection. The technology of written language is understood as an extension of the eye, as it enables a ‘seeing’ of things not actually present but represented in the language.”—Marshall McLuhan
What this means is that technology extends our human capability, which in turn changes our perceptions and culture. However, these changes may not always have a positive impact and can—quite often—lead to negative ones. For example, as shown in the next image, the extension leads to the amputation of a human ability.
These extension-related amputations can be of an ability but could also be related to culture or well-being.
Take the invention of the smartphone. It is obvious how it has changed lifestyles and extended our capabilities. For instance, it has extended our ability to connect with others at any time we want. It has extended our ability to get information or services with a tap of a finger. It has also extended our ability to store information (e.g., phone numbers) and memories (e.g., photos).
But what does it take away? What does it amputate? It takes away IRL (in real life) social time with friends and family. It takes a toll on our thinking, even while it is a means to help us make decisions and perform tasks. We become less engaged with our daily life and anxiety can build up as a result. These are amputations.
When there is an amputation, there is an opportunity to “cover” or “fill” this loophole. That is where mindfulness apps, Screen Time features, and meditation devices come in to rectify these amputations.
For every extension, there will be an amputation.
Whenever there is a novel invention or new technological feature, there will be further extensions, which in turn lead to a new set of amputations. And this goes round and round.
In my opinion, there is no perfect technological solution to a problem. We can only cover the flaws that are created by each new technical creation. However, what we can do is identify and be mindful of the problem that each technological invention will instigate and, hopefully, minimise the damages that it creates.
If you have read the Japanese comic Doraemon, you know the cute blue robot cat—which has all these futuristic gadgets from the future—gives the impression that the future is utopian. However, at the end of every short story, his futuristic gadgets always cause a new set of challenges after they have solved the initial problem.
Eventually, no technological invention holds a perfect answer to any given problem.
A decade ago, I was working as the interaction designer for an MP3 company, researching what the next big thing was. And Faith Popcorn, a futurist, was one of my regular reads. It was during this time that I began to see how the notion of extension and amputation could also be applied as a way to gain foresight of the future. Specifically, how things influence one another within a system and how the solutions of today could be impacting our future.
Fascinated and intrigued by learning how mediums work within this complicated environment, I felt like a fish finally understanding the presence of water.
However, this concept was still hazy for me back then, and my process of identifying the extension or amputation of a product was quite loosely framed.
It was while I was doing my studies at Hyper Island and with the introduction of the “Jobs to be Done” framework that I realized how these mediums or technologies could actually represent jobs that are designed for people. And how these jobs are broken down into functional aspects and emotional aspects that the new product is either extending or amputating. Stumbling upon the Jobs-to-be-done market discovery template further allowed me to connect to the next dot on how the identification of the amputation could lead to a new opportunity.