The Future of Power: Megatrends and Metapower

"Change is the most potent source of power, creating the story of the future” ... Peter Fisk explores the future of power ... how it is shifting in a rapidly changing world, and the consequences for nations and leaders, organisations and individuals.

We live in a time of incredible change. Dramatic, pervasive, and relentless. More change in the next 10 years than the last 250 years. 

The challenges are numerous, the opportunities are greater. Incredible technologies transforming our lives and work, expectant consumers and disruptive competitors, power shifts economically and culturally, climate crisis and social distrust. The 2020s will be a decade of transformation. 

The 2020s will be a decade of transformation. It will be a decade of shifting power. Whilst we used to think of power as hard and hierarchical, new power is soft and social. I call it “Meta Power” because it goes beyond our traditional sources of power, and boundaries of control. In particular it goes beyond nations, beyond the power nodes and codes of the past.

Megatrends and metapower 

Meta power is not about having the largest army, it is about having the best story. It harnesses the new structures of our society, and is achieved through inspiration and influence. It comes from the voice of people who are loved and respected. It is the emotion stirred through culture and sport. It is the actions that positively contribute to a better society, healthier and happier. It is less tangible and less structural, more human and collaborative. It is a pull not a push, a carrot not a stick. 

Thunberg is more respected than Trump, U2 has more influence than the UN, Messi is more followed than Macron. Leaders realise that social media is more effective than press releases, nations realise that culture is more potent than politics, media realise that people love stories of real people beyond celebrity. The best brands win through word of mouth rather than advertising, music and movies are promoted through immersive experiences.

Think of the power of social media in driving the Arab Spring, which no nation was able to influence or contain. Think about reality television which immerse people in trivial yet everyday lives. Think about the most memorable Olympic stories: Jesse Owens as he underminded Hitler in Berlin, Eric “the Eel” Moussambani who have never swum in a pool before Sydney, or Sarah Attar, who ran in London in a headscarf, and inspired the liberation of women in Saudi Arabia.

We are only starting to appreciate the seismic nature of change in our world, technologically and socially, and how it is changing the very concepts of power.

We are all familiar with how the smartphone has transformed the way we live, how we shop and connect, how we work and learn, how we vote and identify ourselves. The rising economies of Asia, its new brands and new middle class, transform business, but also the power behind movies, fashion, and sports. Jurassic Park to Harvey Nichols, Volvo Cars to Weetabix. We might be concerned about Huawei, we should probably be more concerned about TikTok, and its disruptive impact on our children. Indeed, artificial intelligence will be the most powerful transformative force of all, with its applications from genetic recoding to self-learning machines.

Take a look at three megatrends shaping our decade ahead, and the consequences for power, be it for nations, and also for entities that exist beyond or across nations:

1.     Cities and tribes are the new the power nodes

Rapid urbanisation is redefining our world, the nature of markets and nations. 1.5 million more people live in cities every week. By 2025, Asia will be home to 33 of the world’s 49 megacities, of over 10 million people. In fact China expects to have 200 cities with a population of over one million people by 2025. To tackle overcrowding in Beijing, China is building a new city – Xiongan New Area – from scratch 100km southwest of the capital. Delhi will replace Tokyo as the world’s largest city, whilst all 10 of the world’s fastest growing cities will be in India, with the port of Surat growing fastest of all. 

Economic growth is driving the rise of a new global middle class, 3.2 billion people today, growing across Asia to 5.3 billion by 2030, the world’s fastest growing market. At the same time, people have migrated across the world. Nations are increasingly heterogeneous, multi-cultural and diverse. Over 350 million people live in a different country from their birth, a number that will triple in 10 years. Diasporas and tribes, driven by culture or religion, a love of hip hop or running will spread across the world, dispersed but connected.

“Meta power” lies in the new communities of cities, and the global tribes of the future. 

2.     Social issues are the new power drivers

Environmental threats are intensifying, challenging our desire for industrialisation and progress, demanding a new balance between short- and long-term impacts. As individuals and brands embrace more resource-efficient behaviours, from bike-sharing to material recycling, social and environmental issues have become critical drivers of decision making. 66% of consumers, including 73% of millennials, say they will pay more for environmentally-friendly products.

Last year Formula 1 pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2030, and to make all grand prix sustainable by 2025. For a sport that produces 225,000 tonnes of CO2 each session, and transports 10 teams to 21 races around the globe, this is a huge commitment, and demonstrates the shift in society’s priorities. In a world under threat, people seek positive solutions, authenticity and hope, more human and sustainable solutions. Economic inequality is at an all-time high, whilst trust in all types of institutions is at an all-time low.

“Meta power” lies in stories of humanity, and improved lives and social progress. 

3.     Technology platforms are the new power brokers

Connective technology means that by 2020 there will be 7 times as many connected devices as people on the planet. The power of networks, formal and informal, grows exponentially, as we can see from the rise of new platform-based companies – Alibaba to Amazon, Airbnb to Netflix. They thrive as exchanges, fuelled by immense amounts of data. 90% of all data on the planet was created in the last 2 years. Intelligence accelerates growth, through personal relevance and precision influence. These businesses realise that they don’t need to be big to be powerful, instead they are smart and collaborative. Maybe this is a model for the future of nation power. 

AI accelerates the data trend, from driverless cars to smart homes, personalised medicines to brain-linked controls. 90% of stock market trading is now done by algorithm. Look too at the addictive power of participation through technology – 2.2 billion people now participate in eSports, more than any other social activity, whilst games like Fortnite drive youth culture and aspiration. “Meta power” lies in the hyper-connectedness and intelligence achieved through technologies, augmenting and fusing with the real world.

Power drivers of the future

Let’s consider the 7 defined “soft power” drivers of nations, and how the “megatrends” are shaping each of these domains, together with the implications for power:

Business and Trade … Power shifts to the network facilitators.

The world’s economies are now massively interconnected, both in trade flows, and in terms of the technological platforms which support them. We see this, for example, in the rise of platform businesses, where 6 of the world’s top 10 companies are “platforms”, bringing huge numbers of suppliers and customers together in global ecosystems. We see this in the cloud services like those of Amazon and Alibaba which underpin most of the world’s digital platforms. We see it in investments, where Japan’s Softbank, funded to $100m per year by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is the largest investor in technology companies, from ARM to Uber. We see it in payments, where Ireland’s Stripe now facilitates the world’s online payments, and China’s PingAn in cryptocurrencies. These “facilitators” are the new power brokers of international business. They thrive on their connections not their locations, their data not their infrastructure. Power is in their digital networks.

Governance … Power shifts to those who own the data.

Across the globe, we see a huge shift towards more nationalist and populist governments, seemingly pulling back from globalisation. In western governments we see an increasing polarisation of politics, and the loss or reasoned debate. Power seems fragile and transient. Elsewhere we see the reassertion of authoritarian power, perhaps with increasing desperation to stay on top of restless citizens mobilised by their connectedness to the world, and each other. We saw the rise of social power in Egypt, for example, toppling old dictators. Most significant however is the role of data in the changing nature of governance. In China, Alibaba’s City Brain enables authorities to bring together every aspect of intelligence about individuals, and to drive seemingly distopian schemes such as social credits that encourage conformity. In Estonia we see the opposite, citizens e-voting every day in a fest of empowered demoracy. From data, privacy becomes increasingly valuable, as a currency of transaction, and therefore of power.

International Relations …Power shifts to those who address the big issues.

The most topical issues at the United Nations right now, and increasingly in the boardrooms of business, is climate change. Extreme weather and ecological destruction have finally alerted publics to the urgency of the situation. And to its complexity. From the plastics littering our beaches to the beef-farming driving carbon emissions, from the industrialised legacy of the west, to the carbon-fuelled ambition of the east, we realise that this is an interconnected global challenge. The same goes for other issues - global migration across the world, mineral resources under the Arctic, the colonisation of space. These are not issues caused by, or solvable by individual nations. Power goes to those who step up to collaborate, and respond to issues that matter most to people of the world.

Culture and Heritage … Power shifts to those who make culture relevant and accessible.

Digital media enables us to enhance or complement the real world. Look at the world of music for example. In a world of ubiquitous digital downloads, it is physical events that have been reinvented and valued most. Artists use digital to promote the physical. Add to this, the ability of digital’s “long tail” to embrace the rarest content means that our tastes can diversify and experiences become personalised. Look at LiveNation. Similarly in sports, the world’s biggest participation sport is now online gaming - where games like Fortnite can reach audiences of 2.2 billion participants. They come together in physical events too, like the Fortnite World Cup in Flushing Meadow. In a similar way 3D imaging and digital graphics can bring the history of Aztec temples and Egyptian pyramids to life, accessible to anyone, anytime. Power in a digital world goes to those who can converge digital and physical worlds in a modern, relevant way for its audiences, young and old, anywhere.

People and Values … Power shifts to communities who share our values.

Global migration continues to accelerate, meaning that cultures and values spread across boundaries following their diasporas. Like they have through history, but now faster and further. Physical locations, in particular the huge megacities, become melting pots of multiple ethnicities and cultures, outlooks and values. This diversity creates a vibrant and creative society, but also challenges the old norms where places had their traditions and ways. The bigger change is in people becoming more individual, which in some ways, is the consequence of diversifying. Each person has an increasing sense of self, and our identity, and demand to be treated not as averages but as individuals. Trust shifts in this world. From traditional institutions and hierarchies, to networks, to people who we identify with most - family and friends, people who share similar experiences or passions. Power grows within communities, peer to peer, enabled by our digital connectedness.

Education and Science … Power shifts to those who invest in the future.

The biggest shift in education is in its digitalisation. As it virtualises it becomes accessible to many more audiences, to anyone with a mobile phone. It becomes more self-driven, often gamified to make it more engaging, like Kahoot for kids or Udacity for business. It then becomes collaborative, peer to peer, as it has in Finland, more kids teach each other in a far more engaging and understandable way. In a world of ubiquitous knowledge on-demand, the change in what to learn changes too - more about how to learn, how to access knowledge, how to think. Similarly scientific research becomes a more collaborative effort, from sub-atomic particles to space exploration, countries collaborate ever more. Power is built on talent, and who has the ability to leverage the new capabilities best. Take artificial intelligence. Through investment, China sees it as a primary way to assert its new influence, as do emerging nations like India, and smaller countries like UAE and Israel.

Media and Communications … Power shifts to those we trust most.

Network-based technologies transform the creation and distribution of content. Media platforms from Al Jazeera to Dalian Wanda increasingly own the rights to global content and its distribution. Companies like Xiaomi become huge investors in Hollywood movies, partly to secure its content for their platforms, partly to shape content to its own cultures. Content also becomes user-generated, and will primarily do so in the future. Instagram and Snapchat are just early starters. It is when AI starts to influence who sees content, what and when, that power really shifts. Bytedance is the world’s most valuable start-up, at over $100bn, a media business that uses AI to decide what content people should see. This will drive the evolution of phenomena like fake news, content created and manipulated to influence. What to trust, who to trust becomes a big dilemma. Power in a sense, therefore is not to the manipulator, but to those most trusted.

Across all the drivers, the significant theme is one of technology and its connectedness driving a redistribution of power. Boundaries become blurred, hierarchies become meaningless, and geographies become irrelevant. People have embraced these changes and flow with it, as have businesses. 

The challenge for nations, and their governments, is to rediscover their relevance in a fast-changing world. What does it mean to be a nation? How does it best assert, or rather earn power? What are the benefits to its audiences? How does it best adapt to this change, working with it not against it, to make a positive contribution to its society?

Welcome to a new power generation

“Hard power” succeeded in a world of borders and controls. It is aggressive and coercive, imposed through physical size and strength. “Soft power” is more effective in a world of connections and cooperation. It is more engaging and influential, independent of physicality. Meta power goes further, it harness the new structures and dynamics of a changing world.

We have reached a tipping point. The notion of power has changed, and its effectiveness.

Nations are wasting huge amounts of public money on traditional forms of hard power such as military interventions and economic sanctions, increasingly ineffective in today's world. Instead they should refocus investments into activities that have a positive influence on other nations, communities and individuals. 

Soft power activities, such as more cultural and sporting investment, more humanitarian and environmental support, deliver a better return on their investments, enabling nations to influence their stakeholders and build positive national reputations with enlightened influence.

Meta power goes beyond nations, but can be embraced by them. 

In a world of blurred boundaries and multicultural tribes, power lies in the new stories of society – the sports teams we love, the influencers we follow, the movies we watch, the people who reflect our aspirations. This new power transcends nationalism, it embraces globalism, but in relevant ways. It gives individual people the freedom to choose how they are influenced. 

Perhaps the most potent source of power in today’s world is change itself. Embrace the changing world, its new structures and codes, and become more powerful. Neglect it, and your power will rapidly diminish. 

Change is power, because it is the story of the future, which any one of us can write, and shape to our advantage.

? Peter Fisk 2020

• Download the full article The Future of Power: Megatrends and Metapower by Peter Fisk 

The Global Soft Power Index 2020 is the world’s most comprehensive soft power study, supported by Brand Finance, surveying opinions of over 50,000 people in more than 85 countries.

• Download the full report Global Soft Power Index 2020 by Brand Finance  

It specifically explores the ranking of nations, built on a new model of six power drivers. It seeks to understand the relative standing of countries by publics around the world, how effectively they build this new power, and what they can do to better more effective. 

The Global Soft Power Summit 2020 will explore what does foreign policy success look like? Is soft power at the heart of diplomacy? Are we witnessing a shift in global soft and hard power dynamics? What are the key drivers of soft power? Is hard power making a resurgence?

Joining Peter Fisk, other speakers include:

• Ban Ki-Moon, 8th Secretary-General, United Nations
• Sebastian Coe, President, World Athletics
• Sir Ciarán Devane, CEO, British Council
• Dr Yu Jie, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
• David Haigh, CEO, Brand Finance
• Mishal Husain. International Broadcaster

There are two summits, in London and Oxford. Tickets are complimentary, See below:

Peter Fisk is a global thought leader on growth, innovation and leadership. He is founder of GeniusWorks, a business innovation company, based in London; Professor of strategy, innovation and marketing at IE Business School in Madrid; and Thinkers50 Global Director. From nuclear physics to managing the Concorde brand, he has 25 years of practical business experience, working with business leaders in over 300 companies and 55 countries. He is author of 7 bestselling books, including the most recent, “Gamechangers: Are you ready to change your world?”. His next book “Business Recoded” is published in September 2020. More at www.theGeniusWorks.com