The Future of Nuclear Energy Is Written in the Stars

Editor’s Note: This week's snowstorm got me thinking about the importance of having a reliable source of firm power during a crisis. Losing heat during a blizzard is a potentially life-threatening predicament that nobody wants to cope with.

That is one reason why I cringe when I hear people say the future of energy is solar. Don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of solar energy. However, I am not convinced that it will prove to be a significant source of reliable power during the first half of this century.

What could be a significant source of clean energy a lot sooner than that is nuclear power. True, there are considerable risk factors that must be ameliorated. But the upside potential is so great that I believe it is only a matter of time until nuclear power is once again a key element of our domestic energy policy.

Billion Dollar Contract

Last week, utility company Constellation Energy (NSDQ: CEG) announced that it was award a $1 billion contract by the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) “to supply power to more than 13 government agencies and perform energy savings and conservation measures at five GSA-owned facilities in the National Capital Region.”

The press release notes that this contract to supply more than one million megawatts hours of power annually beginning this year is “the largest in GSA history.” The company’s CEO observed, “Constellation and its partners will add approximately 1,100 MWs of 24/7 clean energy by 2028, enough energy to power over one million homes.”

If using nuclear power at GSA facilities allows an equivalent amount of energy to heat homes, then it has the same effect as taking one million homes off the power grid. Even in a densely populated area like Washington DC, that is a meaningful number.

Friendlier Business Environment

This development does not surprise me. In fact, a few weeks ago I explained why I believe the nuclear energy sector will be embraced by the incoming Trump administration. A combination of deregulation and increased federal investment in nuclear power should create a much friendlier business environment for the entire sector.

That won’t happen easily. Surely, environmentalists will oppose expanding this nation’s portfolio of nuclear reactors. But in the end, I believe the economic and practical advantages of increasing our nuclear power capacity will prevail.

For that reason, it is not too late to get in on the investment opportunity created by those circumstances. Wall Street is taking a “wait and see” approach to potential changes in energy policy. In the meantime, it is concentrating its money in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

Income Versus Growth

To be sure, the GSA contract is a big deal for Constellation. However, it is not a game changer. After surging from below $224 to above $254 in the days following the announcement, it is lower than it was six months ago when it hit an all-time high near $289. Despite its recent pullback, CEG has more than doubled in share price during the past year.

Bear in mind, most of Constellation’s shareholders are either index funds that track the utility sector or income investors that are presumably more interested in the dividend yield than its growth potential. But after its recent surge, Constellation’s quarterly cash dividend of 35.25 cents per share equates to a paltry forward annual dividend yield of less than one percent.

At this point, I doubt anyone is holding CEG for its yield. You can get a lot more income from a 10-year Treasury Note, currently yielding 4.6 percent. What you won’t get from a T-Note over the next decade is direct exposure to the nuclear power industry, which is why Constellation’s shareholders are willing to accept such a low dividend yield.

Just Getting Started

Constellation won't be the biggest winner in the nuclear power sweepstakes. In fact, we have no way of knowing who that will be yet. My guess is it will be a few years before the playing field starts taking shape.

Don’t believe me? Consider how the recent mania surrounding AI stocks played out. In October 2022, I recommended NVIDIA (NSDQ: NVDA) to my Personal Finance subscribers while it was trading below $12 (split-adjusted). Now, it’s going for more than ten times that price!

If the portfolio managers on Wall Street knew it was coming, they would have bid up NVIDIA long before that. But they waited until there was no doubt which company would dominate the field, allowing my readers to get in NVIDIA while it was still cheap.

I believe we are at a similar moment for nuclear energy stocks. Some of them, such as Constellation Energy, are already getting off to a strong start. Others haven’t even gotten started yet. It's time to turn up the heat!