The Future is now…Strategic foresights identified in 2019 to disrupt the postal and logistics sector look a lot like the realities of today!

Back in 2019, I worked with Deloitte Consulting to develop meaningful strategic foresights based on the significant technological and social trends affecting the postal and logistics industry in the near-, mid- and long-term future.?We examined 89 technological and societal drivers shaping the world around us as we saw the landscape in 2019. ?From that analysis, we developed 15 foresights with the potential to impact the logistics and postal sector. These foresights represented directional changes in the world that were significantly transforming the ways people lived, purchased goods, and interacted with one another. They also represented opportunities and threats to organizations across industries, including USPS. The pandemic upended our plans to release the report (see note 1), but looking back at the 15 strategic foresights it seems as though the pandemic accelerated the trends by at least five years.?Take a look and see if the future from 2019 looks a lot like the reality of today.

1.??????FROM CUSTOMERS TO COMPETITORS. Large retailers are continuing to vertically integrate their supply chain and using predictive analytics to outmaneuver traditional players. Walmart has created its own milk supply chain by opening a dairy processing plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana, to supply its stores with private-label milk. It has also recently forayed into the beef industry, developing an end-to-end supply chain for Angus beef.

2.??????FROM I WANT IT SOON TO I WANT IT NOW. In the 2019 Holiday shopping season, 67% of shoppers that opted for “fast shipping” reported expecting it in?less than two days. ?In 2014, Amazon obtained a patent for anticipatory shipping in which goods are shipped near a customer who is predicted to order the item within a certain timeframe. In its continued push to deliver goods faster, Amazon announced in 2020 it would offer free 2-hour grocery delivery to its Prime customers.

3.??????FROM TOKEN SUSTAINABILITY TO ACTUAL SUSTAINABILITY. The New York University Center for Sustainable Business analyzed sales data on over 71,000 products in 36 different categories of consumer package goods between 2013 and 2018. They found that 50% of sales growth came from sustainability-marketed products, despite the fact that they accounted for just 17% of?the market. Environmental risk management firm CDP has found that six out of the seven largest publicly?listed household consumer goods companies are actively innovating to replace petrochemicals in their?products with natural, biodegradable ingredients. ?Walmart is also taking a closer look at alternative fuels and electric options in their supply chain as part of its efforts to cut out 1B metric tons of greenhouse gas?by 2030.

4.??????FROM DURABLE PRODUCTS TO CONSUMABLE GOODS. Through 2019, the two fastest growing segments of eCommerce were food and beverage (23.1% growth) and?health, personal care, and beauty products (18.6%). Combined, these segments will top $100B in sales in 2021. Chains including The Halal Guys, Sweetgreen, and Chick-fil-A have partnered with “ghost-kitchen”?operator Kitchen United – which closed on a $40M funding round in September 2019 - to offer delivery out of a shared commercial kitchen.

5.??????FROM WELCOME TO WALLS. As demand for electric vehicle batteries rises, Asian battery suppliers are increasingly looking to build plants?in the U.S. to better serve their automotive customers and avoid trade tariffs. For example, South Korean battery manufacturer SK Innovation Co Ltd is constructing a new plant in Georgia and is investing an?additional $1.7B to build a factory in Tennessee to supply batteries to Volkswagen AG, with production slated to begin in 2022.

6.??????FROM GOODS FOR ALL TO EXPERIENCES FOR ME. A study conducted by Expedia and the Center for Generational Kinetics revealed that 74% of Americans now prioritize experiences over products or things.10 Nordstrom now has four storefronts in LA and New York that have no merchandise. The stores focus on experiences and have no inventory, providing alterations, pick-up / return services for online merchandise, and neighborhood-specific services like baby stroller cleaning?and manicures.

7.??????FROM THE HUMAN BRAIN TO THE DIGITAL BRAIN. AI processing capabilities are getting smaller, cheaper, and more effective. Projections suggest that 50 million enterprise machine learning chips will be sold in 2020 alone, growing to 250 million chips by 2024 for use in a variety of devices. In 2019, McDonald’s acquired AI startup Dynamic Yield to offer adaptive menus for drive-thru customers. The company is hoping to make ordering faster and reduce waiting time by suggesting?items based on weather, time of day, or current traffic.

8.??????FROM PHYSICAL CITIZEN RIGHTS TO DIGITAL CITIZEN RIGHTS. Following the start of enforcement of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation in 2018, the U.S.’s first data privacy act - the California Consumer Privacy Act - took effect in January 2020. Both laws establish personal data ownership and increase requirements for data protection. Gartner has identified over 200 startups pitching products to help organizations adhere to privacy rules associated with the new California law, targeting the $55B companies are expected to spend on initial compliance with the law’s requirements.

9.??????FROM MACHINE DEVICES TO MACHINE COLLEAGUES. Deloitte research estimates that almost 1 million robots will be sold for enterprise use in 2020, generating more than $16B in revenue and representing a 30% increase from 2019.16 Over half of these will be professional service robots designed to assist and work alongside humans. For example, the 2020 Consumer Electronic?Show (CES) featured Sarcos Robotics’ Guardian XO, a powered industrial exoskeleton enabling a human to?lift up to 200 lbs with little effort. The Gita is a device created by Italian company Piaggio, a small rover that can follow a pedestrian around like a pet to carry groceries or other goods.

10.??FROM REINVENTING THE WHEEL TO REMOVING THE WHEEL. In December 2019, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) revised existing regulations to allow?the use of autonomous delivery vehicles weighing less than 10,001 pounds under current DMV permits.18 As of 2020, 100 Waymo-converted Chrysler Pacifica minivans autonomously serve 1,500 monthly passengers?in the streets of Phoenix, Arizona. ?Elroy Air has developed a hybrid-electric autonomous vertical take-off and landing aircraft for cargo transport, with a payload of 250 to 500 pounds and a range of 300 miles.

11.??FROM CONNECTED INDIVIDUAL TO CONNECTED ECOSYSTEM. The number of connected devices in U.S. households grew from 6 million in 2015 to 25 million in 2019.21 The global market size for smart services is expected to grow to $225 B by 2026, a steep rise from $93B in 2017. Apple, Amazon, Google, and the Zigbee Alliance representing companies such as IKEA and?Samsung announced a push to develop a standard for Internet-connected smart home devices so that they can all interoperate.

12.??FROM “HI MOM” TO “HEY SIRI.” The global virtual assistant market is expected to hit $5.4B by 2024, an annual growth rate of 30%?between 2020 and 2024. ?Google recently reported that its virtual assistant is now used by more than 500 million people a month across more than 90 countries. ?American startup AVRL has developed a?system that enables employees to use voice commands to access product information contained within an existing enterprise resource planning, warehouse management, or transportation management system.

13.??FROM THE HOSPITAL TO THE HOME. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, home healthcare is projected to grow by 54% by 2026, adding 738,200 jobs.?Landmark Health announced that its in-home medical care program can cut mortality?rates by 26% and cost of care by 20% in the last 12 months of life. At CES 2020, one of the “Last Gadget Standing” award winners was MedWand, a handheld medical diagnostic device that contains a camera, pulse oximeter, infrared thermometer, stethoscope and ECG.

14.??FROM CAREERS TO HUSTLES. In the US, multiple states are introducing legislation or taking legal action in response to the growing use of gig workers. New Jersey recently fined Uber $650M for misclassifying its drivers, and state lawmakers are debating a worker classification bill modeled after California’s Assembly Bill 5, which classifies some independent “gig” contractors as employees eligible for legal protections. ?The German company Robert Bosch GmbH manages an on-call contingent workforce of more than 1,700 former and retired Bosch employees. These “senior experts” are brought in to consult and work on projects on an as-needed basis in functions as varied as research and development, production, and sales and marketing. Bosch claims a 92% satisfaction rate among these workers’ customers, who value them both for the work they perform and?for the coaching and development opportunities they bring to younger Bosch associates.

15.??FROM SPACE EXPLORATION TO SPACE COMMERCIALIZATION. In 2019, venture capitalists invested $5.8B in 178 commercial space startups worldwide, up 38% in dollar terms from the prior year and setting a record for commercial space investments.30 In May of 2019, Elon?Musk’s SpaceX launched the first of its new satellite network, Starlink, designed to provide internet services?worldwide, with a goal of having 1,500 new satellites in orbit by the end of 2020. Blue Origin, founded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, has been preparing to launch a suborbital New Shepard space tourism service, which will compete against newly public Virgin Galactic space tourism services as soon as 2020.?

The future from 2019 looks a lot like the reality of today.?What do you think?

1. Graphic and 15 foresights excerpted from the USPS report Eagle-I Foresights: Insights to Deliver a Better Future by Emil J. Dzuray (USPS), Peter I. Timko (USPS), Alan Holden (Deloitte Consulting LLP), and Chris Krahe (Deloitte Consulting LLP)