? The Future Normal: Fast Forward #18

Polarization might just be the thing that most unites us these days. From culture wars and generation gaps to geopolitical tensions, division is everywhere.

Each one of this week’s stories will divide as well as inspire. Some readers will reject the future they suggest. Some will welcome it. But each one should provoke you to start thinking about how you will respond.

Final note: while The Future Normal is an optimistic guide to what comes next, that’s not to say we will suddenly all live in harmony. Those bringing about a cleaner, fairer, healthier future will face obstacles and resistance. Keep going.

Rethinking Climate Change: How to Reduce Emissions 90% by 2035 with Existing Technologies

???#FutureNormal // This week’s IPCC report was the big news in climate, with its ‘code red for humanity’ central message. How should we respond? If you want a truly mind-blowing, and crucially optimistic roadmap for avoiding the Climate Crisis, then RethinkX’s report, Rethinking Climate Change, is a must-read. It suggests that we already have the technologies to radically transform the energy (solar, wind & batteries), transport (autonomous EVs, transport-as-a-service) and food (precision fermentation and cellular agriculture) sectors. The combination of these technologies could see us reduce our emissions by 90% by 2035, without economic costs and indeed with many benefits.?

???So what??//?Regular readers won’t be surprised by any of these technologies: they underpin many of the instigators we feature regularly. That’s the authors’ point! But what might be surprising to most readers, is the report’s optimism about the exponential impact on emissions when all these technologies converge and compound. One example: if synthetic proteins massively reduce the need for agricultural land (for grain and livestock), this also means lower levels of global transportation, which in turn reduces the size of the cargo industry (which is a huge source of steel use). All these sectors are huge emitters of CO2 themselves, but a massive reduction in agricultural land use would also mean huge reforestation opportunities, that capture carbon. In other words, we can create a virtuous cycle of lower emissions. Skeptics will point out that the report’s assumptions are just that, but this is a Future Normal that is infinitely preferable to the one that the IPCC’s warns of. Let’s make it happen.?

The Global Techlash: What Tech Does China Want?

???#FutureNormal // The Chinese government is cracking down on local tech companies, particularly its consumer tech champions (e-commerce, gaming, media, fintech, and food delivery apps). The Economist speculates that it is because the government wants to boost the country’s deep tech and infrastructure-focused tech sectors, from cleantech to semiconductors and AI, having identified these as critical sources of power in the near future.?

???So what??// On the surface, this has little in common with the IPCC’s & ReThinkX’s views on climate. But at its heart, this is a remarkably similar story: both concern our collective ability to effect the outcomes we want, whether it’s avoiding the Climate Crisis, building wealth or protecting national security. It is not yet clear what power looks like in the networked, exponential economy. Who wields it? Governments, capital, or people? What are the best ways to harness our collective endeavors?

Apple will scan photos to detect child sexual abuse. Welcome or worrying?

???#FutureNormal // Apple faced a huge privacy backlash after announcing it will conduct on-device scans of images and report them to the US’ National Center for Missing and Exploited Children if it detects they match confirmed Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM).

???So what??// Another signal that The Future Normal will involve some hard, if not intractable choices. A vast majority of people expect tech companies to protect the innocent. More nuanced readers will correctly ask, “who defines ‘innocent’?” Is this the classic thin end of the wedge, ushering in a dystopian new relationship between individuals, governments and big tech? Or will this turn out to be a moral panic we look back on and wonder what the fuss was about? This move may permanently shift expectations of privacy and protection, but amid all the controversy there were some genuinely useful features announced: for example, parents will be able to receive notifications if their children send or receive sexually explicit images. Few parents would argue that’s unwelcome, given what ‘normal’ looks like today.

The Future Normal?is an exploration of where we’re heading, featuring the ideas and instigators building a fairer, healthier and greener future for us all.

But The Future Normal isn’t pre-determined. We must build it.

If you know someone who can take these optimistic glimpses of what’s around the corner and run with them, then please share it with them!