The Future of Nonprofits in the Post-Pandemic Era: What Awaits the Nonprofit Sector After COVID-19 & How to Prepare

Introduction

This is a unique time in human history, but not entirely unprecedented. Over the course of the past 100 years, the world has experienced multiple pandemics and seasons of economic recession and depression. As the world continues to fight to flatten the curve and stabilize the economy. It is vital to make projections and consider the wellbeing of nonprofits programmatically and financially after the pandemic peaks. While government agencies must respond, the efforts of nonprofits provide essential and direct assistance to communities. It is why the future of nonprofits in the post-pandemic era must be discussed now.

During an economic decline, sizable financial cuts to charities are made at the corporate and individual level, resulting in considerable economic stress.[1] With millions of Americans losing their job in this season, nonprofits must prepare for financial ramifications. President Trump has signed off on CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) ACT; the provisions for nonprofits within it are minimal. Much of the funding is going in hopes to stimulate the economy.[2] The provisions extended to nonhealthcare related nonprofits are secured under such strict guidelines, that it will deem most nonprofits ineligible for loans, that they would struggle to repay.

The estimated mortality rate in the United States due to COVID-19 is 200,000 people. Yet, research has shown, the societal and economic implications of pandemics and recessions impact more individuals than the virus. The battle to stop COVID-19 rests in the hands of public health officials, doctors, nurses, and scientists. However, the war waged because of its effects falls not only in the hands of the federal and local government, but social services agencies.[3]

The Landscape of the Post-Pandemic Era

It remains unknown when the world will transition to the post-COVID-19 era. Medical professionals will receive a duly needed reprieve. Social services industries, public health officials, and governmental agencies will become inundated with secondary[4] and tertiary[5] effects of the pandemic. I have considered the organizational and program landscapes. These categories are intertwined, creating distinctions allows for further elaboration on how to serve within them.

Organizational Landscape

Nonprofit financial reports include an uptick in giving directly after a disaster. What supports nonprofits, especially smaller ones, are the sustained monthly donations of faithful patrons. 80% of nonprofit giving is done through small checks, 15% grants, and finally, only 5% are through corporations. Nonprofits will see a decline in sustained monthly donations until there is persistent improvement to the economy. The effects of the decline are detrimental. Organizations are likely to lose their full ability to provide services to clients, develop successful programming, retain staff, and remain open. This is the reality for many smaller nonprofits across America, whose work makes a significant, consistent impact in the community.

For nonprofits unable to close or transition to telework formats, the staff will experience increased anxiety surrounding work and likely burnout. Which, overtime will lower the quality of services provided to clients who are desperately in need.

Program Needs Landscape

Economic Landscape

Written in November 2017, in Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty. 3rd edition is a foreboding statement ringing prophetic in the wake of this crisis as it pertains to the economy.

Negative economic growth shocks are driven directly by labor force reductions caused by sickness and mortality and indirectly by fear-induced behavioral changes. Fear manifests itself through multiple behavioral changes. As an analysis of the economic impacts of the 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic noted, “Fear of association with others . . . reduces labor force participation, closes places of employment, disrupts transportation, motivates some governments to close land borders and restrict entry of citizens from affected countries, and motivates private decision-makers to disrupt trade, travel, and commerce by canceling scheduled commercial flights and reducing shipping and cargo services” (World Bank 2014). These effects reduce labor force participation over and above the pandemic’s direct morbidity and mortality effects and constrict local and regional trade.

During a severe pandemic, all sectors of the economy—agriculture, manufacturing, services—face disruption, potentially leading to shortages, rapid price increases for staple goods, and economic stresses for households, private firms, and governments. A sustained, severe pandemic on the scale of the 1918 influenza pandemic could cause significant and lasting economic damage.[6]

Since the COVID-19 outbreak December 2019, over 1 million people worldwide have been infected and over 55,000 people have died. It is sobering. This virus has massive economic implications. With the cancellation of events, schools no longer physically meeting, and small businesses being shut down many seasonal and hourly workers have lost their wages. Larger industries such as hotels and airlines will in time begin unrolling layoffs. Three million Americans filed for unemployment in a week, due to work closures. The number will continue to rise. There is a stimulus package in place. However, by the time it is paid out to citizens, if the coronavirus has not claimed the lives of Americans, debt, unemployment, evictions, and poverty will make nearly irreversible stamps on their wellbeing.

University of Houston’s, Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at Bauer College of Business, said that in the short run, “social distancing,” or the isolation occurring in order to prevent exposure to the new coronavirus, could lead to short-term losses. The estimate is unlikely to capture the full economic impact of COVID-19, as it does not account for oil prices tanking, consumers staying home instead of shopping, and businesses cutting back on investment because of an uncertain future. “Unlike the one-time hurricane figure (15,000 job losses from Hurricane Harvey) job losses could rollover from month to month”,[7]

Finally, there is a likeliness of urban flight to rural areas. For people moving the hope is they are fleeing the disease. Instead, they are further spreading it to underdeveloped rural areas without the capacity to treat it. This jeopardizes the wellbeing of LMI (Low and Middle Income) families.[8]

Socio-Emotional Landscape

There will be massive social, emotional, and psychological implications for individuals. All local businesses are suffering in this period. However, there is a heightened loss felt by Asian/Asian-American owned businesses and restaurants. Asian/Asian-Americans face increased discrimination due to the ignorance surrounding COVID-19.[9] Mental health remains a stigma in Asian/Asian-American communities. The community focus of Asian/Asian-American communities allows for resilience. However, the entire ethnic groups have been impacted by xenophobia.

Though not documented, I presume there be a noticeable increase in phobias surrounding germs and spaces. Counselors, therapists, psychologists, and social workers will be in high demand as many Americans will need assistance charting grief surrounding the loss of employment, loss of loved ones, loss of experience, lack of social interaction, loss of celebrations (weddings, graduations, and funerals), loss of opportunity, and other primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of the pandemic. In this, there will even need to be additional supportive services for minority communities and rural communities that may be disproportionately affected by COVID-19.

Nonprofit Program’s Response

Organizational Response

Funding

It cannot be said enough, the work of nonprofits is essential to the health of the community. What is most needed is the assurance of maintained funding for existing programs. The Greater Houston COVID-19 Recovery Fund (or other city-oriented fund development programs) is already providing a wonderful set up to support significant Houston area nonprofits. The following responses are suggestions made presuming nonprofits have done everything possible to reduce spending, without having to cut essential programming or their staff.

During the pandemic, there are industries that are in fact thriving. The pandemic has increased the revenue for Healthcare, Telecommuting, Local Grocery Stores, E-commerce, Streaming Services, and Delivery Services.[10] Depending on the nature of the nonprofit, it could be advantageous for sensitive connections to be made. It is important to remember, even if an industry is flourishing, an ask at the wrong time could be detrimental.

Also consider, once the pandemic is over what industries will see an immediate (3-6 month) revitalization? It would be worth finding a consultant or business insider with greater knowledge of what industries will be on the rise. Knowing this information early could assist nonprofits in the already competitive work of securing funding.

Finally, as the CARES Act unrolls, it is particularly important for nonprofits to be discerning on enrollment for the “benefits” offered. Although many provisions focus on the private sector industries, certain provisions are also applicable to nonprofit and tax-exempt organizations, including various loans as well as other items such as unemployment benefit reimbursements, an employee retention credit for the employer's share of employment taxes, a delay in the payment of payroll taxes and the increased ability for credit unions to provide credit to other nonprofit organizations.[11] Grants are factored into the CARES Act, but currently, it is not entirely clear what the eligibility of those grants will be.

Nonprofit Needs

Hiring for nonprofits is likely to remain frozen for the remainder of the year. A consultant provided by the United Way of Greater Houston could provide low-cost assistance, in navigating the post-pandemic era. As basic services are met, there must be a fluid relationship between the United Way of Greater Houston and Greater Houston area nonprofits where collaboration on needs and services can continue. The Houston-Area Nonprofit Capacity and Needs Survey has done so much to keep the city informed of needs. When we transition out of the pandemic era, the needs may continue to fluctuate or change entirely. Creating a structure for updates will be beneficial.

Additionally, as nonprofits may have to reduce programming, United Way serves as a mediating entity connecting not only the people to nonprofit but nonprofits to one another. A consultant would mediate nonprofits in creatively navigating their often-limited resources for undeniable impact.

Staff Retention

A lack of funding could lead to massive layoffs. This is problematic for two reasons. First, it significantly decreases the number of clients you can serve in a period where your clients have significantly increased. Second, you have now contributed to the growing unemployment number with little to no solution in mind. Staff employed during the virus have face increased levels of work; burnout will be inevitable.

The introduction of wellness programs can help retain experienced, but exhausted staff during this period. In the Houston-Area Nonprofit Capacity and Needs Survey, only 10% of organizations identified employee self-care/mental health support for staff as one of the greatest organizational needs. For staff who were unable to work from home, may have been unknowingly exposed to COVID-19 from work, or for staff that had to pick up additional hours, there needs to be a greater emphasis placed on their mental health. The world of nonprofit work, especially for those who provide direct services, is physically and psychologically taxing. Mental health should be emphasized normally. If employee mental health is prioritized, it may not diminish the number of anticipated community needs, but it will allow them to be handled more effectively

Program Needs Response

Economic Response

Prospecting for Partnership in High Demand Fields

Groceries stores and the delivery industry will be oversaturated with employees when the pandemic is over. They may experience layoffs in the post-pandemic era to regulate themselves. Similar to the creation of funding streams in high demand areas, it will be the same with work. Partnerships in technology, medicine, and home care services will be vital to allow people to regain independence and stabilize. Some of this will occur naturally as restaurants return to full service and event staff is rehired.

Remote Assistance & Training Programs

Where many have lost their job, this could be an ideal opportunity to begin remote training programs for a transition to another industry. In the realm of telehealth, there can be tele-case management. 2-1-1 is a soft version of tele-case management. Operators are able to route people to needed resources. Not all nonprofits are set up for tele-case management, but the temporary transition could be vital in reaching those in need.

The standard program model cannot be sustained during a pandemic. It is important either to partner with nonprofits that have digital programming or begin to work towards making all programs digital. Classes can be recorded. Workbooks can be made into interactive pdfs. Moving to the digital format through tedious could support the archiving of programming.

There are barriers to this. For the organization, it would require the ability to record clear videos that can be easily edited and included on a streaming platform such as YouTube or Vimeo. Client barriers include having a stable internet connection and space during the day for undisturbed work.

If these are not possible, this is a perfect time to evaluate and update the curriculum. Appraise programming and consider how it will need to move forward after the pandemic has ended

Development of Rural Resources

COVID-19 has been one of the greatest public health emergencies of our time. In response, some families residing in urban areas have moved to rural areas in hopes of escaping the virus. This only perpetuates a public health threat. Rural communities already struggle to get appropriate medical assistance.[12] It is likely rural communities may be impacted later and harder.[13] Rural areas are often filled with older adults with compromised health issues and many low-income families. No one must be forgotten in all of this; it is important to consider how services are distributed in proportion to the needs of the community.

Empowering doctors, nurses, and public health servants is vital to ensuring these communities are cared for. What this empowerment looks like, I am unsure. However, the doctors, nurses, nonprofit leaders, and public health servants located in those areas are loaded with wisdom. It is important. As public health nonprofits develop, working in rural communities is incentivized, whether it is through private grants or government assistance. Rural communities are an often lost and forgotten segment of the American population. This is not the time to forget them.

Socio-Emotional Response

Partnerships with No cost/Low-cost Telehealth

A profound segment of the population will benefit from telehealth services. Many Americans are experiencing anxiety, fear, and depression in this season. Adults who live alone may be struggling with minimal human contact. Children and parents may be at their wits end navigating working with one another with no reprieve. Social distancing may be taking away from the social learning of children and youth. The mental health ramifications of COVID-19 are vast. Having access to mental health professional at low-cost or no-cost may keep individuals and families safe during this time and in the post-pandemic era.

Virtual Processing Groups

With as many as 6.6 million Americans filing for unemployment, many more will be left without proper medical insurance. Medical insurance is already a challenge for many in the United States, concerning mental health. This is an opportunity for mental health professionals to practice telehealth in the form of processing groups. With options like Zoom, the host can mute the audio and video of the people dialing in providing a level of control for the groups. It is so important to remember this pandemic is a globally traumatic experience. Processing groups could equip many with the health to navigate the world after this era ends.

Meaningful Investment in the Chinese Community Center

Again, all of Houston has suffered because of COVID-19. Prior to Stay-at-Home orders, Asian/Asian-American businesses were struggling. It is important the partnership with the Asian Community Centers are sustained. Even after COVID-19 subsides, it is possible for many wonderful and important Asian/Asian-American owned businesses to suffer. Programs and events through the Asian Community Centers could provide a platform for a highly impacted community. Business meetings held at the center could provide a platform for owners to discuss their experiences surrounding COVID-19 and potentially be referred for additional supportive services.

Community centers could offer encouragement and support to the Asian/Asian-American community. This week in the Washington Post, Andrew Yang wrote a meaningful opinion piece on the role of Asian-Americans serving as the solution to the COVID-19 fear in the United States.[14] It was meaningful and can reaffirm the dignity of Asian/Asian-Americans in the Houston community.

Conclusion

I was not asked to author this by anyone. It serves as a nonprofit professional's concern and response to the COVID-19 pandemic. If anyone has additional questions or would like to dialog, please feel free to comment, share, or message me.

[1] https://nonprofit.adelphi.edu/files/2012/09/Listening_Post_Project.pdf

[2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-anatomy-of-the-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-bill/

[3] https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

[4] Secondary effects include all aspects of individual life indirectly impacted from COVID-19.

[5] Tertiary effects include all aspects of systems and organizations impacted by COVID-19.

[6] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525302/#pt5.ch00.ref-list1

[7] https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/economy/article/houston-lose-coronavirus-jobs-thousands-15128598.php

[8] A 1994 outbreak of plague in Surat, India, caused only a small number of reported cases, but fear led some 500,000 people (roughly 20 percent of the city’s population, including a disproportionately large number of clinicians) to flee their homes (Barrett and Brown 2008). Sudden population movements can have destabilizing effects, and migrants face elevated health risks arising from poor sanitation, poor nutrition, and other stressors (Toole and Waldman 1990). Migration also poses the risk of further spreading an outbreak.

[9] https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Being-Asian-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-15032747.php

[10] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/jim-cramer-these-companies-can-win-during-and-after-coronavirus-crisis.html

[11] https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2020/03/nonprofits-and-the-cares-act-a-closer-look

[12] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/coronavirus-strains-rural-hospitals-absolute-limit-n1172416

[13] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/21197421/usa-coronavirus-covid-19-rural-america

[14] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/01/andrew-yang-coronavirus-discrimination/