The Future of Mobility in a Post-Covid World

Part of the 100 days of lockdown series from Moving Brands 

Over the past three months, everyone has had to adapt their living and working environments as a result of a huge, unprecedented change – on everything from home working and schooling, to major restrictions on freedom of movement.

And while some elements of mobility will continue to trend in the same way as before lockdown, as I’ve discussed before, it’s also made us realise to what extent these changes will become the norm.

A number of elements that were part of the mobility landscape before will now surface higher in people’s lives. Let’s take a look.

Clean mobility

When demanding new cars or hailing any mode of transport, consumers will place higher importance on ‘clean mobility’ – both in terms of emissions (or ideally, lack-of) and the filtering, cleaning and hygiene options inside the vehicle.

Some brands have already begun talking about designing sophisticated filters, but how will the consumer requirement (no, demand!) for sanitation impact cleaning regimes between use – in taxis or Ubers, for example?

I think we’ll see a big change in the relative importance of car features too. Safety, range, cleanliness and connectivity will be more dominant factors than the ‘traditional’ allure of private cars – speed, power and exterior styling etc. 

If Bentley was the car of choice of the successful industrialist and Tesla of the successful technologist, what will transport look like for the successful environmentalist?

Prestige will still be important but I think the notion of it will be different in the future. Prestige in cars has followed success on racetracks (Ferrari, Porsche et al) and the expression of economic success (Rolls Royce, Mercedes), but I believe we could see car brands reframing how they project success. Crudely put, if Bentley was the car of choice of the successful industrialist and Tesla of the successful technologist, what will transport look like for the successful environmentalist? 

I do believe the trajectory in demand for day-to-day private car ownership is still downward, but the irony of Covid means short-term demand will rise, with more wanting private cars to avoid contact with other commuters. Today many people are priced out of electric cars so demand for cheap ICE cars is rising. It is likely governments may step in and help by introducing a new scrappage scheme, and perhaps even force buyers to go electric in order to receive the benefit. Right now, the charging infrastructure gap means that many people will not find this practical. 

Last mile

Covid has meant there’s been an increase in ‘hyper-local’ focus. In Britain at least, more consumers are shopping locally as a result of lockdown restrictions. My friend and teammate Chloe discusses this in her article as part of the 100 days series here – Cautious consumerism: Three things I've learnt.

This opens up more opportunity in ‘last mile’ services, to connect a hyper-local delivery service to a smaller community, via the flourishing AV market (robots/drones) or more efficient and environmentally friendly delivery services, such as cargo e-bikes.

As battle-lines are drawn between road space versus pedestrianised areas, expect local activism to increase with demands to protect and increase car-free zones, especially in family-dense areas. Ambitious plans are underway in Paris to make whole swathes of the city walkable. This grows the opportunity for last mile delivery services that can integrate safely with these changes.

Delivery workers have been emerging from the shadows and will become brand ambassadors.

If you do see a delivery person, perhaps using an e-bike cargo, we might begin to expect them to know our face and even our name. Delivery workers have been emerging from the shadows and will become brand ambassadors of the web businesses we are using to order from. We were receiving deliveries before lockdown, but this volume has jumped significantly, and with more repeat purchases now easier to manage, these could be handled and delivered locally via people we know. 

Elastic mobility

Currently, new models of mobility (Uber, Zipcar etc.) are often designed by teams with similar needs, living very similar existences, often in a major city. It has become a herd mentality.

We may find that there is more stratification in services, and companies that previously focused on urban micro economies look further afield and follow migration out of cities. The rural transport services that do exist are being supplied by governments or the private individual. Therefore that balance between an Uber (or any taxi-style service) and full car ownership still needs to be found. Owning a car outright isn’t the endpoint, but calling a car on demand, elastically, is still no a reality for many. You might want that car right now, for a day, a week, or even longer. You will also want to make sure it's sanitised and cleaned appropriately before use.

Pure speculation – whoever develops and owns an interface for journeys, that can work with car manufacturers as well as existing rental companies would be at an advantage. If you added in public transport too then it’s a game changer – if it works! Think the Apple TV of immediate, elastic mobility. A hardware product, a service provider, a content creator and an aggregator – an all-in-one interface that appeals to many as we all begin to suffer from subscription fatigue. 

Two wheels are better than four

E-bikes are 100% a growth market.

They are becoming even more affordable and more sophisticated in their designs. Many players are entering the space with really interesting leaps in quality and reliability from brands like BOSCH and Riese & Müller. It is interesting to a see the hard won qualities we associate with German car brands being embedded in e-bikes. As these products and brands develop, our perception of what role e-bikes play in our lives is changing too. For many people their next car will be an e-bike..

More people will choose e-bikes, perhaps seasonally at first, as their primary form of commute or leisure travel (cycle-holiday staycation anyone?). They will then rely on elastic mobility for journeying further afield – if necessary. They can also be adapted for cargo which, I’ve alluded to previously, connects with the growth and importance of ‘last mile’ from a hyper-local delivery point of view.

Up in the air… for life, not work

Flying for business will and, quite frankly, should fall. Far too many of us have used planes like buses. I look back on some of trips I have made for business in horror and already made drastic cuts my business airmiles pre-Covid. Working remotely, more so, during Covid has shown us all how viable virtual business communication can be.

Our own board meetings have always been hosted via video conference due to the global distribution of our team, so why can’t external meetings? This will cause massive upheaval in the airline industry since many flag carriers and premium airlines have previously ‘eeked out’ profits from Business and Premium cabins. 

I’m pretty certain flying for leisure will come back – we all enjoy to travel for holidays and to ‘getaway’. Many of us have families and friends in different countries and those close connections with loved ones is better when we’re actually together. However, the seasonality of holidays may change significantly as working times become more flexible, along with school holidays. 

Staycations are a potential winner. Many of these destinations have been treated as second tier options and there may be a surge in improvements to the quality of the experiences on offer to cater for new demand and expectations.

Families may go in for ‘hybrid trips’ part traditional holiday, part remote working, part mini school exchange programme.

However, with sanitation/quarantine periods likely to be in place for a while, and flexible working more of a thing, will this mean longer holiday periods? Families going away for months rather than weeks? Perhaps the beach-pool-tour-template of holidays gets disrupted. Families may go in for ‘hybrid trips’ part traditional holiday, part remote working, part mini school exchange programme. Do quarantine periods therefore, sadly, mean the collapse of weekend city breaks?

Away from the skies, motorhomes and caravans may see an increase in popularity due to enabling greater control of hygiene, but also freedom of movement. An interesting aspect of these vehicles is that they are already able to incorporate multiple technologies that enable semi or permanent ‘off-grid’ living. Mobile solar, wind, sanitation and potable water systems make for viable mobile homes that can go off the beaten track rather than stuck in caravan parks – witness the #vanlife movement for example. 

We will be fundamentally changed by Covid-19 and life under lockdown. 100 days has taught us enough that a number of our previously held beliefs and systems are no longer viable. They negatively impact on ourselves and others around us. Time for change.

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Check out other fascinating insights from my friends and teammates:

• Chloe talks about Cautious consumerism: Three things I've learnt. 
• Maddie tells us What next for the world of work? 
• Geoff's got questions on Have you ever taken so much notice of space, distance and measurement? 
• Dave is thinking a lot about how Technology has played a starring role during Covid