The Future of Mobility after the Pandemic Virus

...or shall I say WITH the pandemic virus? It becomes more and more visible, that the Coronavirus will not be over soon. It will stay for a few more months or even years, and it will have an impact on us as humans, us as the society, us as the industry, us as the vehicle industry far beyond this time. The virus meets us in times of constant change, of exponential developments. The speed grows. The acceleration grows. The speed of acceleration grows. You will know the nature of exponential changes.

This overlays with a crisis and a new focus within the automotive industry. I have seen and - in parts - experienced a slowdown of the industry in the summer of 2019 already. Those cars that have the largest margins in sales, the high-end luxury vehicles, are sheer luxury products. They will remain on the market for long. High volume vehicles have reached saturation, everyone wanting one has one. Replacing it may be moved a few months or even years into the future.

We can read the results every day in newsletters, papers, on webpages, wherever we collect the information we need, and want to make our decisions. Layoff here, cuts there, limitations everywhere. Here are a few thoughts I'm having on what's next and how to deal with it.

I believe in the creation of the future. We are not victims of what will come. We can take action and turn this world into a better world. Prove me wrong on any of the thesis below. I will be more than happy!

This article is a shortened version of a paper I'm preparing. I plan to publish it later this week. Stay tuned, you will be amongst the first to know!

We will See Dramatic Changes in Most Parts of our Lives

The idea, that the world is constant, that there is something like stability is an illusion. We change the world every day. almost 8 billion humans stand up every morning, well at least most of us, do something, think, decide, act, and go to bed in the evening, again, most of us. Every thought we think, every decision we make, every action we take changes the world. And it will never be the same.

In some times, in some contexts, these changes are hidden and hardly visible, in some obvious. For a few months, we see enormous changes, changes I had claimed as impossible half a year ago. In most contexts, Corona accelerated changes that had been present before.

New Work

When I kicked-off my own business 5 years ago location independence was one of my cornerstones. No office, limited infrastructure, maximum flexibility. A few months after I started, I attended the DNX Festival for the first time. A life-changing experience. There were 500 people, all dreaming of a location independent lifestyle. 100 of them worked on a realization. 50 actually lived it. From freelancers to solopreneurs to company owners, from 10,000$ businesses to million-dollar businesses. I realized, my dream is not unrealistic. And I made it true. For 80% of what I do when I get active for my clients, I need my notebook, a wifi connection, and my smartphone.

The home office had been a no-go for many companies, owners, managers over the years. In the past weeks they found out, hey, my guys and girls are active at home, they treat working time responsibly, and results are at least on the same level as before. Employees found out, that the home office has clear advantages. First of all commuting times turn into working times, become productive suddenly. Instead of sitting in an overcrowded bus or train, they can get stuff done. Traffic jams are abolished.

This leads to lower traffic, less required traffic infrastructure, office space will be reduced. Of cause, there are jobs that need personal presence. I hate the idea, that a pilot flying a plane I'm in, works from the home office. The bartender tapping me a fresh beer should be present. And I like my dentist around me when I need treatment. We are social beings, we need humans around us. Communication runs on different levels, even in professional contexts not all of them can be transferred in an online meeting. New work means, that we will have a physical presence for the exact occasion where it is required, but we will also see working styles like the home office or location independency.

New Social Interaction

As for new work, digital tools will change our communication behavior. In certain contexts a remote communication is fine. It will not replace a person to person talk, but it is better than none. Social distancing will change us. I totally miss the Spanish habits of abrazzos and besitos, hugs and kisses, when you meet. To me, it still feels different, strange, and I want it back. When, how, with whom is totally unclear. Tim's Bar, one of my favorite places at Mallorca for a beer with a view, posted on Facebook lately: besos will be back soon. I hope so!

In general, we will see more digitalized communication. Distance will be prominent. This does not only affect personal communication. Part of a really cool rock concert experience is the crowd. The same is for soccer, basketball, football events. And it will be a factor in mobility. I can't wait to jump on another aircraft to Mallorca after long weeks of not doing it. But how will it feel? Pressed into a flying refrigerator, sitting side by side with a stranger, not thinking about viruses and bacteria spreading, not moving for an hour or two was a normal procedure half a year ago. It may be the same soon, but feel completely different. I have not used public transport in the past weeks, the first pressed into a Berlin underground with 100s of other people will be an old but totally different experience. How ill bars, clubs, and rock concerts feel in the future?

New Mobility

The patterns of mobility will change. And in this case, Corona did not accelerate an existing trend, but it turned it around. There were tendencies toward shared mobility in urban areas half a year ago. Yes, all car-sharing services struggled, micro-mobility turned out to be a hype, and private transport was an attractive option, even in larger cities. But we all had the idea, the feeling, saw the need to reduce the number of vehicles in downtown areas.

Since Corona, everyone has a clear understanding of how viruses and bacteria spread among people. Public and shared transport modes are turbochargers for distributing them. This knowledge will change mobility behavior towards more private and less public transport. A German car magazine sees the return of the car for longterm travels. Instead of taking a plane or a train, Germans will drive by car to Italy, Croatia, and Spain this summer. The 50s are back!

The Automotive Industry will not be the same anymore

The industry that I love to work for, that pays my bills for 30 years, the automotive industry faces serious changes. Opposed to the famous last words spoken in interviews, at conferences, and in public, the mindset of most of the established OEMs is still in the steel and rubber framework. Software, services, user focus are add-ons, not the core of the business. This leads to excellent products, no doubt. A car is a fine high-end product of extreme complexity and with high availability. The future will be different. With and without Corona.

Automotive startups have a totally different mindset. It does not surprise me, that an US America pioneer of electric vehicles uses just one onboard computer instead of the 15 to 20 established players use. It surprises me, that someone is surprised about his.

Developmental processes at established companies seem to be bulky, slow, and inflexible. Again, this leads to the reliable high-end products we see on our roads. For the future, we will need to balance between speed, agility, flexibility on one side, and reliability on the other. We will see an acceleration of this, including a paradigm-shift towards agile development and testing processes.

Many automotive companies will not survive in the next years. Sorry to be so frank and pessimistic. Particularly small and mid-size suppliers face hard times. Some OEMs may remain brands und the roof of former competitors but lose their independence. A few super large companies will survive, realizing enormous scaling effects and synergies in purchasing, development, sales, platforms. I'm already missing a high number of convertibles and real off-road cars.

The C.A.S.E. Mantra will be Reduced to C.E.

In the past years, the future of cars was summarized under the C.A.S.E.-Mantra. Connected, autonomous, shared, electric. We will need to learn that this turns into C.E. The connectivity of cars is set. Technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence ( I hate that term, but it is so normal these days...) will drive that development. In 10 years from a non-connected car will be as normal as a horse on a German Autobahn today. For the electrification, we will see a battle between the different options of storing energy (battery vs. fuel cell vs. others), but the combustion engine will have an existence in nices. It will take longer than most expect until we have a 90% fleet of electric cars, but we will have them.

The automation of vehicles will proceed far slower than we expected it a few years ago. There are technological reasons for this. Today with a combination of a well-defined set of sensors, high computing power, fast data transfer, artificial intelligence (there it is again, this nasty word) we can cover 95% of all use cases. Or 98%. The remaining edge cases, extremely seldom but dangerous, will be a hurdle hard to pass. All the electronics will cost a fortune, even when we have it in a high number of cars. People will simply not be ready to pay this.

All levels of automation face serious problems in the relationship between human and rolling robot. Results of that are missing safety, under trust, over trust, missing experience of value. Legislation efforts are slow. All this combined, I believe we will see driver assistance systems on various levels and of various kinds. Fully automated vehicles will be limited to a low number of use cases in some areas.

Shared vehicles will face limited acceptance due to the hygenic reasons I described above. When I enter a shared car, my first thought is always: "who far*ed into that seat before me". With all the physical touchpoints we have in a car, users, with their raised awareness on how viruses and bacteria are transferred, will limit the use of shared cars.

Down to the Point: New Mobility will be Old Mobility With new Devices

Future mobility will be private, personal, owned mobility. Guys and girls using fat SUVs and high-end sports cars will use super fat SUVs and highest end sports cars in the future. Those who used to take public transport and shared vehicle will seek for small, flexible, electric vehicles. They shall have a limited price point, seamless connectivity, ease of use, and a real value for people.

Let's go this way. Let's just rock it. Let's #maketechnologysexy!

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On the author:

Dr. Peter R?ssger. HMI Guru. HMI Expert. HMI Punk. Professional Speaker. Consultant. Coach. Usability. User experience. Human-technology interaction. We need to know everything about humans in order to shape technology. And not vice versa.

I adapt technology to the skills, needs, and desires of people. And not the other way around. With my reports, consultations, presentations, and coachings, I bring my clients from the automotive and high-tech industries to new levels of knowledge, awareness, decision making, and action. Make technology sexy!

Book a presentation under www.peter-roessger.com. Find me here on LinkedIn, on www.beyond-hmi.de, mail me under [email protected] or call me under 0049 172 384 24 75.