The future of Lebanon might be decided today

In the course of today, we will witness the threshold of what may very well prove to be the most pivotal juncture in the Israeli-Hamas conflict. It will determine whether the conflict will stay a regional conflict or translate into a bigger war. Here is why:

Today in the afternoon, Hassan Nasrallah will give a speech in Beirut. If you saw the pictures of the preparations of this event, you could easily grasp the significance of this speech. Hundreds of Lebanese are going to attend, millions of Arabs will follow the speech on television or social media. Since 1992, Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of Hezbollah. In a country, that lacks political leadership, the Hezbollah has an easy game dictating the course of action.

Even if you spend only little time in Lebanon, you will immediately notice one thing: In one of the poorest countries in the middle east, with power cuts during the entire day and night, every 5th car you spot on the street is a luxury SUV (in a country with 400% import taxes this makes those cars cost 0.5 million dollars and more). Food and housing prices in Beirut are on a European level.

So where does all the money come from, that is so insanely driving the prices? Some of it is earned in business, sure, but the major part comes from outside Lebanon, meaning Lebanese family members living abroad – or from Iran.

Why Iran? The Iranian leadership very openly denies Israel’s existential right and has found an ally in Hezbollah; Iran is in its majority (88% of the population) adhering to Shia Islam like Hezbollah, but there is a geopolitical component to Iran’s interest in the region: The more unstable the region remains, the more influential and powerful is Iran, especially in face of the arch-enemy Saudi Arabia.

When you ask military experts in the region, they draw a dark picture of the potential unrevealing of the conflict: If Hezbollah enters the war with Israel, Iran could enter, too. In this case the US will have to intervene because Israel would be facing a war on five boarders: Against Hamas in Gaza, attacks from West Bank, Hezbollah on the Lebanese border and against Iran – even for the strong military power that Israel is, an impossible task. In this scenario, Israel will most likely destroy the airport of Beirut and other important infrastructure in Lebanon and the US will support attacks against Iran. In this case, one way or another, Russia and China will intervene, too.

This is why this conflict is so much different to the previous 6 (!) Gaza wars since the year 2000. This is why you would see the complete elite of politicians fly to the Middle East to negotiate and prevent this scenario to happen. Nasrallah’s speech today might give an indication regarding the likelihood of this scenario.

?

[The picture shows me on my recent visit to Lebanon together with Dr. Afaf Mourad, a famous Lebanese lawyer and women rights activist. During our walk through the cedar forest (the cedar is the national symbol which you can see it on the Lebanese flag) we discussed the history of Lebanon and how hopeful Lebanese people are to live towards a more peaceful future. This was only two weeks before the Hamas attacks.]