The future just keeps on coming

“Just because something isn't a lie does not mean that it isn't deceptive. A liar knows that he is a liar, but one who speaks mere portions of truth in order to deceive is a craftsman of destruction.”― Criss Jami

This week's issue concerns many shifts toward a different future. We must be mindful of how it will impact businesses, workers and society. But to manage through this, we need to understand what makes it work.

Personal Log: Protecting society from a misinformed future

This week, I finished reading five of eight books, on top of writing this newsletter preparing for two presentations that are coming up and an article that is due. I am mindful of the world around me because I invest in it and count on reasonable humans doing the right things. However, we are all overwhelmed by this fast-changing world. It is both exciting and comes with uncertainty. Though it does not depress me, it motivates me. My wife will tell you that I am the last person who needs positivity talks. I am wired differently; she would describe me as relentlessly driven and determined. Nevertheless, I am not without emotional intelligence and am always concerned about what we leave behind for each generation. This week, the pervasive growth of AI and Target closing nine stores because of organized crime caught my attention. It is apparent that society is getting fragile, and shifts beyond AI are coming our way, which will impact the future dramatically.

The most challenging social question is how we help the future cope with the changes that technology, the environment and global politics bring with them. With the sole purpose of protecting today's youth from being drawn into an underworld of criminal behaviour. This will happen in a world of haves and have-nots, which these changes can bring about. And division in classes will grow as I have learned that AI and Climate Change do not suffer from discrimination. Everyone will be affected. Unfortunately, politicians are too busy feeding the parents' minds of future generations with divisive politics, hate and misinformation to keep their political asses employed instead of being focused on solving real-world problems. It sickens me to hear these politicians rant on social media, spreading twisted facts into gullible lies. That's the future that really worries me more than AI, Climate Change and Geopolitics.

How disruptive is Ai?

This technology is disruptive. How disruptive? Think about the invention of the steam engine, electricity, the telephone, personal computers, the internet, e-commerce, smartphones and EVs. Now, add the impact of all those together, and you understand why smart business leaders worry about AI.

You'll hear a lot about why you should be chasing this frenzy. But few can explain how to build your Ai-Factory Engine and what you need to do to prepare. You will also hear a lot about organizational transformations. My advice is to be sure you are talking to advisors with real-world operating experience.

Make no mistake about it: this won't be as easy as hiring someone to set up a website, and the news reminds us how many fail at that even today.

All organizations must have a high level of digital competence (and I will explain this later in the newsletter). And before you can transform an organization, it must pass an AI readiness audit. That's because too many organizations still operate in the analogue domain and believe they are foundationally digital companies. But don't confuse digital with AI. So, what is an AI readiness Audit? It evaluates an organization on a number of critical performance levels. It would be very detailed and focused on everything from digital platforms, data management, talent and expertise to ethics practices and governance. And that just scratches the surface.

There is one very specific point to all of this. Many organizations will be faced with a leadership crisis. New CEOs and Executives don't need to be data scientists, but they do need to understand how to develop an Ai-Factory Engine. These skills are not abundant right now, and technologists will not necessarily fill those roles successfully either.

Politics: Cyber Security

In the ancient world of knobs, switches and dials, theft was a human activity blatant and no more sophisticated than mail fraud or Ponzi stock schemes.?We turned the 1940s word of Cybernetics into cyberattacks.

At first glance in my newsfeed on CyberSecurity, I have read articles from The Wall Street Journal to The Canadian Press , The Globe and Mail , and The Washington Post , many stories of cyberattacks and one at The Clorox Company . Hacking, malware, ransomware, phishing and disruptions and government offices having email addresses stolen all of this is our new normal.

This week, Canada's Military site was hacked by an "Indian Cyber Force." Read More So, is any nation or individual safe? Clearly, the new criminal mind is more sophisticated, AI-driven, and sometimes sanctioned as black-ops by nations. You may want to read this from Forbes Magazine

Technology: Digital is not Ai

The simplest way to look at AI versus digital and data is to understand their relationship. The word digital is too ubiquitously used without considering its context. Some of it is a misunderstanding, partly because the media tries to get stories out fast, and there is a lot of AI news hourly. First, here are definitions and examples. However, the image above should tell the overall story. Data is the fuel that feeds the AI engine. You have no AI fuel unless your digital platform can collect, produce and manage that data.

But there is a great deal of confusion. Digital Data is not AI. However, AI cannot function without data, but they are not one and the same.

Digital Defined:

The term "digital" broadly refers to representing information in binary format (1s and 0s). It encompasses various technologies, devices, and systems that utilize digital signals and data. Digital technology facilitates information storage, processing, and transmission more efficiently and reliably than analog methods.

Examples: Digital computers, digital communication (e-mails, texts), digital media (images, videos, music), and digital platforms (websites, apps).

Artificial Intelligence Defined:

AI refers to developing computer systems or software to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence. These tasks can include learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, natural language understanding, and speech recognition. AI aims to create intelligent agents to enhance or automate processes, improve decision-making, and perform tasks with minimal human intervention.

Examples: Machine learning models, chatbots, autonomous vehicles, and recommendation systems. Even ChatGPT is a Generative AI which does specific tasks by creating the opportunity to inquire about subjects loaded into its data sets. Companies are employing Generative AI to have the same dialogue and opportunities to create with their data. Walmart has reportedly already done so.

Economy: Retailing

Aritzia and Canada's Economy: Canadian consumers are pulling back. Due to Canadian business performance, Artizia lost $6.0 Million in the last quarter.

Canadian GDP is in a flatline trend...This news agency says it is a rounding error recession. Read More We know that in July 2023, Manufacturing dropped by 1.5%. That usually is a signal that something is going wrong. Even copper prices are dropping, which has in the past indicated a recession.

Bank of Canada: It seems there are more things that can go the wrong way now other than inflation, and the BOC needs to be mindful that there is only so much that consumers can be burdened with. I would question the rationale of keeping rates higher and creating more problems than we need.

Rocky Retail Road Ahead

The last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 will be rocky. It's not to say that the Christmas holiday will be a bust. However, it will not be robust and will likely be funded by what little credit consumers can spare. At the beginning of the pandemic, I wrote that it would take 18-24 months to get out from under the shutdowns, and that is what happened. Further, I added that we would hit a euphoric moment in 2022; we did everyone came out spending, and that 2023-2024 would be uncertain and choppy, as it has been. I also wrote that I expect 2025- 2030 to be incredibly robust years. Now, as for 2024, which is just around the corner, most of all, the savings from the pandemic will be chewed up by inflation and higher interest rates. 2024 will be flat to negative unless the bank governors pull interest rates back down. Otherwise, retailers must focus on keeping sales flat and understand that prices may start to inch down, causing more pressure on margins. And finally, moving toward an AI-driven competitive market or 2025-2030 will not be as exciting as it will be for others.

Environment: Carbon capture systems

The concept behind this is to capture carbon at the stack and turn it into a solid mass, and then the idea is to store it underground. The concept isn't bad in theory, but there are questions. One is about leakage, and the other is about seismic activity. I don't know if those risks are real and what else can come of them. But it seems that we should have grown up enough to test all of this first. You also need a lot of energy to capture and turn the CO2 into a solid. We cannot capture the CO2 production of motorized vehicles. It just addresses one source. The risk is that we stick to this and don't bother with turning off oil and gas. The other problem is cost and timing. Can we wait 20 years to see if it really works? Interestingly, governments at the provincial and state levels are not doing enough and seem to be appeasing the oil and gas industry. Or they have no concrete solutions to sustainable energy production. Read More Other research shows that many of the most significant carbon-capturing projects are under-performing. Read More

Thank you for reading this week's issue of The Business Brief

I am available for keynote and private company speaking engagements.

#retailing #strategy #ceo #technology #innovation #business #economy #marketing #future #futurism