Future Inductive Arguments (i.e. 2017 Themes)

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“It is dangerous…to apply to the future inductive arguments based on past experiences, unless one can distinguish the broad reasons why past experience was what it was.” — John Maynard Keynes, 1925

Each year, around this time, economists and strategists gaze into their crystal balls

and forecast the forthcoming path of the economy and markets. Each year,

around this time, we cringe at the notion of conveying too much precision in our

ability to forecast; a feeling most recently reinforced by the U.K. Brexit referendum

and U.S. presidential election.

Instead of extolling overly-confident prognostications, we find it more productive

to assess the environment, listen for what direction it conveys and think about

what surprises are possible. Glenmede’s Investment Policy Committee recently

convened to debate the characteristics of the current environment, as well as

the implied market impacts and uncertainties.