The Future – As I see it !

Covid 19 has changed forever the way businesses work. 

For few companies, this change is not new, and presents a great opportunity to reduce real estate or rental costs ! Similarly, many employees are delighted to Work From Home (WFH) ! Social distancing has sounded the death knell of open plan offices. This change, which happened in 4 months would have normally taken 6 to 8 years, despite some of it already underway. Our environment forced it on us ! 

Much of what I write here may be a cliché, and many of you may have already read variants of this in other articles. Even so, I will try to bring together in a single essay what we are seeing happening with (our) customers and employees. Hence, what it portends for the near future (as I see it).  

1. Employees:

• As soon as the risk of Covid-19 became apparent, we told all our employees, who were anyway working from home (WFH) for 2 days in a week, to work from home, all 5 days, until further notice. 
• Most, if not all, were delighted, because for some this was a “vacation”. 
• Interestingly, in the first 3 months we saw a 30% increase in production, but not necessarily productivity. People were working for 10 to 12 hours.  But some could only manage 4 to 5 hours a day ! 
• Zoom has become a de-facto for all to “meet”. 
• The challenge is discipline. For those who work 10 to 12 hours, managing time and being “always available” is a challenge. For those who only work for 4 to 5 hours and see this as an “extended vacation”, delivery is a challenge. Both situations warrant counselling and action. 
• For some, long term WFH is becoming a challenge, because staying cooped up with a child and family, were okay for 2 days in a week. However, when this became 7 days and then into 3 or 4 months, we could see productivity reducing. 
• Options were limited, given the challenges Covid-19 presented. I use the word “were” intentionally, because managing such a change in behaviour has a multitude of challenges. However, we are working through them. As a result, some of the smarter people started changing the constraints of a 9 to 5 day. Instead, they would “meet” team members at times which were outside this constraint. They felt that they were more productive early morning when there was little noise in their apartments. Unfortunately, some are still trying to figure this out ! But what is clear, that as people work more and more on their own, they will have to learn how to take “ownership” of their work. Rapidly learn how to manage time more effectively and efficiently. Health & exercise will be the anchors of individual’s wellbeing. I am wondering how interns will cope ?

2.      Customers:

• Automatically, all meetings graduated to Zoom. 
• Meetings now can be held instantaneously. For example, finding a meeting room was the driver to set the appointment. Instead, now people meet at their desks, at homes, at shorter notice. 
• Decisions are being made quicker. 
• We are also seeing a plethora of new customers take up our application’s free trial and then buy. Most of these are businesses employing between 10 to 50 people, were using paper. Suddenly, they saw a problem in continuing in their “older” ways. Employees could not submit their expense physically, and approvers could not approve them physically ! Covid-19  forced them to change their processes. Where earlier the process was paper based and manual, which they felt comfortable with, now required an urgent review. Simplicity and ease of adoption enabled them to rise above their fear of automation, which then helped them automate their expense process. And they saw the “messiah” in their employee phones, which “drove” the solution, and has become the means to submit and approve expenses on the go. 
• Existing customer, in some cases we saw a reduction in travel in April. However, from May we saw a steady rise, which is continuing in July. That said, the numbers are still below March. The caveat here is that air travel, hotels, entertainment, and public transport are reducing. The use of personal cars (for mileage) is seeing a significant increase. 
• Customers, not just ours, but across the spectrum will start looking for creative pricing options by the end of this year. I think all suppliers should take note. Indeed, self-service “contactless” and “paperless” systems, which are in the cloud, available 24x7, 365 days a year anywhere will see significant traction and adoption. 

3.      Challenges going ahead:

• Businesses will continue to be there, and people will be employed. The current doom and gloom will eventually reduce, but the fear of the unknown may not necessarily disappear. But the way we work will change. 
• In the “new normal” many things will change. Some for the better, and some for the worse. 
• Social media, which we saw as the ultimate means of democratisation, unfortunately has been the bane. Like every freedom, which has a price. This freedom, the price was the fear created by fake news. Already there is clamour to rein in social media. The future will see governments creating laws to make owners answerable. 
• WHF will be the “new normal”. Usage of remote meeting appliances will become the order of the day. Where a sales person made (say) 15 customer visits in a month, they will now make 5, and the rest will be over (say) Zoom. 
• More people will travel, but for shorter distances and use their personal vehicles. Public transport will see a huge reduction in rush. 

• Commercial real estate will see a reduction in demand, and hence prices. Small town based homes will be in demand, as more and more people move away from cities because they can now WFH. They will take the advantage of working from larger homes, which cost less ! Hence, real estate will see a resurgence in those small towns, which are well connected via internet. 
• This will slowly even out the advantage which bigger cities held over towns. I believe cities such as London, New York, Delhi, Mumbai, Paris, etc will see a hollowing out, especially for those jobs which can be done remotely, such as, digital marketing, software, advertising, tele- medicine, stock trading, and any job that does not require working with hands. 
• In many cities, especially in the emerging markets, which have expensive high-end apartments owned by the wealthy. These families will start looking at single occupancy dwellings, so that they can control their environment, should another Covid-19 event happen once again ! Now they cannot control this because they are governed by the common ownership deed they signed. 
• The CEO of Etihad has said that they will, for now, reduce staff by 15%. He expects it will take atleast 4 years for Etihad to recover ! Overall, I see airline capacity reduce by atleast 50% in the short term. And it may never recover to its pre-Covid- 19 days. People will get used to working remotely and may not need to travel so much. 
• However, holiday travel is another story. I believe, this will see a resurgence especially where people will prefer domestic travel v/s international travel. Europe is the exception, where holiday travel will continue between countries. I see Europe like the US or India, where Europe is the country and the “countries” are stares. I believe holiday home ownership will once again increase, simply because people will have more control on their environment. 
• Expensive hotels will see a similar fate, i.e., a significant reduction in traffic
• Out of town restaurants, in open air, will see a major resurgence, at the expense of city based “indoors only” restaurants. There will be more roadside cafes and eateries, which are open to the sky, where people can meet and eat with a significantly reduced risk of catching the virus. 
• We will also see an increase of smaller business parks develop around smaller towns, where people could also cycle to work. These will be at a fraction of the cost of the swank city offices, and will offer ample space for social distancing, etc, without breaking the bank. 
• There will be more gated communities, with their own restaurants and shops (not shopping centres), where they can control who comes or goes. We will also see these communities build around large hospitals for rapid response (should it be required)
• Automation in large companies, and even smaller companies will increase dramatically. The process had already started, and because of Covid-19, it was “forced” to speed up. Businesses will have to prepare and plan for such eventualities in the future, which unfortunately may become frequent. Businesses who do not recognise this trend will wither. 

 In conclusion, I see many things changing. Especially, in the way we work and interact with our colleagues. A vaccine, which is truly effective, will take 4 to 5 years, if not longer. Indeed, given the fragility of our environment, the risk of another types of Covid cannot be ruled out. Businesses will factor this in their business plans. Automation, home deliveries, innovative travel solutions & payment solutions (which are already underway) will accelerate. Petrol will give way to more electric cars. Electricity generation will rapidly tend towards solar and non-coal or oil based. The likes of Uber, Ola, Oyo, Airbnb, will have to re-look at their business models. Un-employment in certain areas will rise, especially amongst those who work with their hands, and cannot work remotely. Developing countries will clearly be at a disadvantage v/s developed country. Both will have to make a radical shift in developing local employment (away from big cities), including housing and local infrastructure to attract employers. 

Sunil NIGAM,

Founder - www.expenseondemand.com