Future Hurricane??????

The GFS did a great job in recognizing this storm 2+ weeks out. I originally posted this on 9/22 but had been watching the model develop Matthew for days before that. Matthew finally affected FL on 10/7. That was quite the crystal ball.

Yes, this storm has completely put all hurricane forecasters through the gauntlet the last few days!! Matthew is currently a cat 3 hurricane as it passes through the Bahamas onto a close-encounter with Florida's east coast. Experts expect a strengthening to a cat 4 storm later today. Currently, Matthew is expected to brush most of the east coast of FL as he makes his way north. Closest approach looks to occur in the Daytona Beach area of the north-central coast early Friday morning. As this coast is Florida's most populous, millions of residents will be exposed to damaging winds of a cat 4 storm. Thankfully, the parallel-approach will spare Florida the dangerous storm surge. Current consensus is that Matthew will begin to head northeastward once he approaches the GA/SC area on Saturday. Because of the orientation of the coastline, storm surge (upwards of 8 feet) will definitely be a factor along with damaging wind even though Matthew is not forecasted to make landfall. Models are now showing a southward movement as the storm will likely not get picked up by an advancing mid-latitude frontal system. The good news with this is that Matthew will have already "churned-up" the water in this area off of FL. This mixing will alleviate some of the oceanic heat content by bringing up cooler water from greater depths, thus limiting Matthew's strengthening potential. The NHC currently expects Matthew to be a tropical storm at this point. Model runs are still up in the air as to what happens next (Tuesday and beyond). The majority of the Euro ensembles have backed off the "loop" back into Florida while "some" of the GFS have also. It is wise to give it a few days before looking that far into the future. Bottom line......as the situation stands now, the deregulated markets in PJM, NYISO, and ISONE look to be un-impacted from this storm. I am still seeing overall warmth in these areas for the next 2 weeks. Not major warmth, less than 1-sigma. But enough warmth to limit the heating load that should be occurring at this point in the year.

Hurricane Matthew is now a major hurricane with winds near 130 mph. It is currently travelling due north through the central Caribbean on its way to Haiti and Cuba. Damage in these countries will be horrendous. As the storm interacts with the south-facing mountainous slopes of Haiti....rainfall totals may approach 40 inches in areas. As for impacts to the US.......although FL looks to be in the clear at this point (knock on wood) regarding the landfall of Matthew, outer bands will most likely impact coastal areas with wind, rain, and wave-action. The bigger question lies to the north...the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic, and New England. As the storm is likely a good 6 days away from any US landfall, the NHC is keeping very quiet about making ANY projections on that subject as it would be mostly pure speculation at this point and consensus will likely change numerous times between now and then. Because of the potential severity of this storm, they are being careful not to "cry wolf" too many times. Understandably so. My analysis...... Model consensus has improved greatly in that they all point to a trek through the Bahamas. Models are also predicting a slight motion to the NNW upon leaving the islands....that is the scary part as it puts it closer in line with the coastal Carolinas. However, since last Thursday, there has been a slight shift eastwards in model and ensemble consensus as the storm passes FL followed by that dreaded turn to the NNW. And when it comes to hurricane prediction, I am a firm believer in following model trends. As I once told the head of energy trading at a past job, "although the details of the stadium seats may still be fuzzy, when models begin to hone in on a ballpark, it is definitely worth noting." Bottom line, although I want to say the storm stays offshore of the Carolinas, my gut is telling me that it is not for certain just yet. This is a VERY difficult storm to discern (as are most later-season storms that threaten the US) as the steering mechanisms get very muddied with mid-latitude baroclinic activity. Will keep you posted!

Tropical Storm Matthew is currently located in the Lesser Antilles (near St Lucia) and is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. As Matthew continues westward (away from the influence of the ridge), it is currently forecasted to make a sharp right turn (under the influence of a weak spot in the pressure field caused by a passing mid-latitude low over the eastern US). Where/when Matthew turns north is entirely dependent on the timing and strength of that upper-level low. As an analogy, imagine a perfectly made bed with little marbles scattered on top of it. Then, someone places a bowling ball in the center of the bed. Well, the marbles will move towards the "dip" in the bed. Even the marbles at a distance away from the bowling ball gravitate towards the bowling ball, just at a slower speed than those marbles closer in. Well, imagine the atmosphere's pressure field as that well-made bed. The mid-latitude, upper-level low is the bowling ball. And the Matthew is a marble at some distance away from the "dip". The NHC expects Matthew to strengthen enough today to be raised to hurricane status. Additionally, as Matthew heads north, it will encounter more than sufficient oceanic heat to strengthen into a category 2 or 3 storm. In my opinion, the only thing which will diminish its strength (temporarily) is the interaction with mountainous landmasses as it makes its way through the Greater Antilles. Wind shear is forecasted to be fairly light as Matthew heads north. Currently, the Euro and GFS models are a bit at odds over Matthew's future. The GFS is stronger and quicker with a storm that skirts the US East Coast, going through the islands off of NC and then northward into New England. The Euro is slower, with a weaker storm that stays offshore. Additionally, some Euro ensemble model runs take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the NHC is being non-committal at this time regarding Matthew's future impacts on the US mainland. My opinion.....this will be an East Coast event. Participants in the eastern PJM, NYISO, and ISONE markets should expect some impacts from Matthew later next week. Warmer temperatures, cloud cover, and potential outages will all work to decrease what should be a transition to nightly heating load (in some areas) as we get into October. Be sure to check the DFS daily as your load forecast will change based on updated temperature forecasts. As an aside, the Mid-Atlantic will be affected by a significant rain event the next few days. An upper-level low is expected to draw in very humid air from the south which will result in accumulated rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in parts of the DC metro area extending into PA. Additionally, OH through MA should see increased cloudiness and precipitation with this system,

In the tropics, all 3 general circulation models are now on-board with a developing storm (officially an "Invest") near the northern coast of South America in the next few days. Previously, it appeared to me that this would be a "homegrown" storm. However, with successive model runs over the weekend, it became clear that this entity will form from a collection of showers that exited Africa last week.....a Cape Verde storm. The next name in line is "Matthew". The NHC gives this storm a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days. Still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the projected path. For one, the storm is quite low in latitude and has yet to develop. Lower latitude storms get less spin from the Coriolis effect than higher-latitude storms. Additionally, the extreme-southeast Caribbean (which is forecasted to be in the projected path) is typically less than kind to tropical storms due to the orography and high shear values. Over the weekend, the GFS was fairly consistent with a Gulf of Mexico entry. Now, it has backed off on that and is showing an offshore East Coast route, similar to the Euro model. Throw into the mix the uncertainty surrounding the future development of a mid-latitude low late this week (which would have an impact on steering the storm) and you truly have a hodge-podge of numerical solutions which can flip-flop with each successive model run. There are numerous challenges in the next week this storm will need to hurdle. I would expect lots of twists, turns, and uncertainty. This "Invest" storm is something to definitely keep an eye on....both for NG impacts and East Coast weather impacts (even if a Gulf Coast landfall).