Future of Good Jobs Report

By Edward Montalvo – Director, Educator Network

As someone who has spent years in high school classrooms, sitting in on countless college and career counseling meetings with students, I know firsthand how pivotal these four years are in shaping a young person’s future. High school isn’t just where students come to learn facts and figures; it’s where they begin to map out future prospects. In these moments, in conversations about goals, dreams, and aspirations, students start to see the power they have over their next steps.

The decisions they make—whether choosing a course of study, exploring career pathways, or determining their next steps after graduation—are informed by the opportunities and guidance we, as educators, provide. Our job is to help students succeed academically and thrive in their postsecondary lives. But with a rapidly changing workforce and massive advances in generative AI, rethinking high school is more urgent than ever as we prepare students to be original thinkers in an uncertain world.

?? The Future of Good Jobs: Key Findings From the Report

The “Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031 ” report from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce outlines the shifting landscape of job opportunities in the U.S. and offers a preview of what students will face in the near-future job market. The report defines “good jobs” as those paying a median of $74,000 for workers ages 25–44, and $91,000 for those ages 45–64, adding, “These are living-wage or better jobs.” Here are the key findings:

• ?? Growth in good jobs: By 2031, 87.8 million good jobs will be available, an increase of 21 percent since 2021. And those jobs will represent 62 percent of all U.S. jobs. These positions will offer at least $43,000 annually, and higher educational attainment will provide the most straightforward pathway to success.
• ?? Bachelor’s degree advantage: Most good jobs (66 percent) will require a bachelor’s degree or higher. Good jobs for those with this level of education are projected to grow by 15.6 million by 2031.
• ??? Middle-skills pathway: While middle-skill jobs (those requiring certificates or associate degrees) will account for 19 percent of all good jobs, they will be concentrated in sectors like construction, healthcare, and skilled trades.
• ?? High school pathway shrinkage: Opportunities for students with only a high school diploma will continue to shrink, with nearly 600,000 good jobs disappearing by 2031.

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?? Why This Matters for High School Educators

This report serves as a call to action for high schools to reimagine how we prepare students for life after graduation. The traditional A-to-F grading system and Carnegie Unit model may no longer be enough to help students succeed in an evolving job market where skill-building and adaptability are more valuable than rote memorization of standards in siloed academics.

When considering future jobs, it’s obvious why more high schools are increasing their CTE pathways for students. The U.S. Department of Education has been heavily pursuing this. However, a high school diploma alone does not give students a competitive advantage—certifications and degrees matter.

?? Here’s What High Schools Should Consider

• Relevance: Students need more than just academic knowledge—they need real-world skills that connect directly to future jobs. STEM fields, healthcare, and skilled trades are booming; our schools must reflect these realities.

Project-based learning, experiential learning, and greater access to internship opportunities will achieve relevancy, expose students to promising careers, and create more authentic learning experiences.

• Equity: The shrinking number of good jobs for high school graduates means that schools serving vulnerable populations must double down on providing access to pathways that lead to higher education and skill-building opportunities. Historically, college education has provided greater economic mobility for students and improved their future opportunities. However, rising college tuition rates and concerns about student loan debt are already giving students some pause in pursuing degrees. Giving students more career options in high school along with financial aid counseling will help them make informed choices about their next paths.

• Agency: High schools are where students begin to see themselves as architects of their futures. We must ensure that our teaching empowers students to make informed, purposeful career decisions.

XQ’s Learner Outcomes are designed with that goal in mind. One outcome, Learners for Life, includes competencies like self-awareness and self-motivation that specifically build students’ wayfinding and self-advocacy skills. When aligned with caring, trusting relationships –an XQ Design Principle—high schools create a powerful environment where student agency is robust and central to their learning.

?? Three Learnings From the Report

1. Integrate career pathways into the curriculum: With most good jobs concentrated in STEM, healthcare, and managerial fields, high schools should ensure they offer a curriculum that prepares students for these high-demand industries. This is where competency-based education can thrive, aligning what students learn with the skills they’ll need in the workforce.
2. Embrace experiential learning: Whether through internships, mentorships, or hands-on projects, giving students practical, real-world experience is vital to bridging the gap between school and work. It’s not enough to teach academics—students must see how their skills apply outside the classroom.
3. Foster a lifelong learning mindset: Rapid technological changes, especially in artificial intelligence, mean that students must continue learning and upskilling long after high school. Schools can instill a mindset of adaptability and continuous growth, ensuring that we prepare students for an uncertain world.

?? Galvanizing Schools for Future Success

Looking ahead to 2031 and beyond, schools have the chance to make lasting changes that will prepare students for life after graduation. School leaders are critical in creating interdisciplinary learning experiences that align with future job markets. Start by building connections with local industries, fostering career-connected learning, and rallying your school community around preparing students for meaningful careers.

Aligning your curriculum with the skills and competencies students need is a great place to begin. XQ’s Competency Navigator can help. It includes an AI-enhanced search to quickly identify relevant competencies tied to academic standards. At the same time, discover how the Competency Builders can easily integrate into your daily practices for instructional success.?

Explore the Navigator

XQ Stories & Updates:

?? How can education drive a stronger economy? At the recent AFT+XQ forum, leaders from government, business, and education discussed how critical thinking and career and technical education can prepare students for the AI-driven jobs of tomorrow. Catch the full conversation here on AFTHQ’s YouTube channel.

???? Four students share how their XQ Institute high schools made them feel like they belonged and created an environment where students want to attend school, thanks to the XQ Design Principles. Learn more from our latest in The 74.

?? Another recent article in The 74 describes how Thomas A. Edison CTE High School in NYC prepares students to succeed in college and in their careers by having them showcase how essential skills fit into academic courses.

Share With Us:

What else do you think students need from high school to land good jobs? Share your stories and insights about how you and your students are transforming the high school experience on social @XQAmerica using #RethinkHighSchool, and we will include them in a later edition of the Xtra.

?? Or send us a message directly at [email protected]

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