The future of food politics through American eyes

I’m excited to be in Ottawa to speak at Future of Food. The big agri-food conference kicked off last night with an insightful discussion between the inimitable Kim McConnell and Ted McKinney, who was one of Donald Trump’s top ag advisers. Here’s what McKinney thinks we need to keep in mind in the year ahead:

1. Trump 2.0

McKinney was undersecretary of state for agriculture in the first Trump administration and previously the top ag adviser to Mike Pence when the Vice President was Governor of Indiana. In other words, he’s been around the Republican block. He says Canadians need to understand Trump loves farmers (think Iowa) and will have their back in any trade negotiation. Moreover, he hasn’t forgotten the pledges on dairy subsidies, made by Canada during the free trade negotiations, that have not been fulfilled (think Wisconsin). Trump has a long memory. If Canada worked on one thing this year, it should be dairy, he said.

2. Populism?

The world is seeing a rise of “I can go it alone” thinking. That’s not good for agriculture, which has thrived under free markets. More protectionism will mean less trade in foodstuffs, which will drive up prices. The remaking of NAFTA, under the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement, helped reshape food production on the continent. McKinney thinks that’s a positive for agriculture, given the long decline of global ag trading bodies, including the World Trade Organization. Canada should continue to strengthen the trading bloc. “Coalitions is where it’s at,” he said. “And there’s no better coalition than the US and Canada.”

3. Urbanization

An ever increasing number of people have little idea where their food comes from, or what’s involved in its production, processing and distribution. As a result, we all take food for granted — and expect it to cost less to buy than it does to produce. Farmers need to catch up with that shift, by positioning themselves on social media and investing time and resources to fill the knowledge gap between producers and consumers.

4. Regulation

Food production is increasingly burdened by regulations focussed on safety and climate. Many of those are necessary and welcome, but many more regulations only add to the cost of food — and threaten food security. Europe is even looking to mandate 25% of land for organic food production, which is helping fuel farmer protests on the continent. On sustainability, he said countries need to move more deliberately and less radically, if they want to sustain any momentum.?

5. Innovation?

If there’s hope in agriculture, it rests with technology. Gene editing, robotics, AI data systems — a new generation of ag tech is transforming the way we grow and produce food. It also could transform the economics of food production. Whether it’s methane capture or soil sequestration, American farmers are moving ahead with climate-smart innovations that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and earn them cash through a carbon market. Canada needs to catch up, if we’re to see the next generation of ag tech adopted at scale.

McKinney’s overall message: the future of food will be more politicized, and more tech-focussed. A big chance for the innovators out there..?