FUTURE FAST FORWARD

With the phased opening up our economy and when the dust finally starts settling down, the Covid-19 pandemic would have reshaped our social and economic behaviour. We cannot be worrying about duration of the virus as there possibly will be a “second or a third wave” until we are able to beat back the virus with a vaccine which will not be before the end of the next year. Ultimately, we will continually be living with the fear of the virus like any other flu. We will fall sick for about a week and recover without even coming to know corona virus has struck us. Medical intervention may not be required also. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is very low unlike SARS etc. Our country has the advantage that unlike the west the median age is only 27 years. The younger generation is less prone to falling sick and especially those who hail from the rural belt. They have developed strong body resistance by living in unhygienic conditions, drinking unfiltered water. Most of them are also protected with BCG vaccine.

Our economies will eventually recover from the punishing recession it will have brought about. Here are a few outcomes that I foresee happening.

1.     We will avoid crowding in places and social distancing will form a part of our habit like other countries. Wearing a mask will become a part of our everyday life and ‘fashion masks’ will come in vogue. ‘Namaste’ will be the new norm.

2.     A large no of migrant labour has already left for their hometown and many will further go as soon as rail and road transportation gets resumed. They will in all probability not return in the very near future after having experienced the hardship. Their employers exploited them as a commodity  For now they realise it is better staying with their families in their villages getting free ration, government subsidy and employment under MNREGA doing unskilled labour work

3.     Cab drivers are also unlikely to return. They stopped making kind of money they initially made that got them lured into the business. Today, after driving their vehicle for 12- 14 hours a day they can only manage their square meals after paying their vehicle EMI’s. The default payment will attach the vehicle to their banks.

4.     One positive outcome of above will be reduced availability of labour and the resultant increase in their wages that will simultaneously provide security. The government is likely to step in.

5.     As customers migrate from off-line to on-line for all their necessities, the big winners will be the companies with on-line presence. Short-term winners will be those who provide goods and services without needing to come into physical contact with their customers. In this digital transformative environment providing ‘customer experience’ as the best total solution will be the challenge. This is likely to generate employment to those possessing digital analytical skills.

6.     Local kirana shops will get an impetus when the tie up with on-line delivery portals.

7.     Scarcity of delivery boys due to migration of workers for e-commerce companies will increase their costs. With rigorous working conditions they get paid a paltry annual salary of a little over a Rs.1 lac. These boys are required to drive their 2-wheelers in diverse climatic conditions. In small housing complexes where there are no elevators, customers are uncharitable. They expect the delivery boys take the staircase 4 floors up with heavy bag on their shoulder. Increased costs will result in increase in padding up of the product price. Predatory pricing is likely to get effected.

8.     Social media traffic will soar, but advertiser revenue will suffer from weak demand in a crippled economy. The same will be with TV and radio advertising.

9.     Many companies will encourage remote working and it should be an option for many. Employees who are suddenly working from home, their employers have come to realise from daily reports, they were working only 2- 4 hours a day. Several jobs cannot be done from home though. When crisis recedes, remote work technology will improve with reduced salaries.

10. This will cause a downturn for commercial real estate as companies will drastically cut the size of their workspaces. Companies may opt to shift out from densely populated cities to smaller/distant towns.

11. People will move less and even undertake less foreign travel. With stricter travel restrictions and quarantine for overseas travellers, will place restrictions on business travels, thereby cutting costs.

12. We have learnt to appreciate nature. Having experienced the merits of clean air, demand for electric vehicles will get a boost. Tesla Inc sold 10,160 vehicles in China in March this year.

13. Several jobs are likely to be at risk as companies are compelled to adopt new technology adaption enabling people to work from home. With prices of robots are coming down, automation is likely to be speeded up. Repetitive and predictive roles in sectors such as IT, financial services, manufacturing, transportation and packaging will be exposed to the risk of automation. Housing structures will adopt 3-D printing technology as in China.

14. Job losses will be replaced simultaneously by new high order jobs. Greater adoption of AI will see role change in work force that would need higher specialisation and critical thinking. As a result, focus will be on new skill development if India has to remain as the global emerging economy.

15. Higher education will partially move on-line thereby tone down the high fee structure.

16. Health and welfare will be no 1 in the Government agenda. There will be more spending in this area.

The pandemic closely resembles the American 2011 thriller film ‘Contagion’. The plot concerned the spread of a virus transmitted by respiratory droplets and resulted in huge losses of life causing pandemic but ultimately got halted with the introduction of a vaccine. Cinemas may have a lesson or two to teach us about how society can work together and collectively overcome shared threats like a pandemic

Coronavirus has brought in a lot of negative outcomes, illness and deaths but it has also highlighted some important life’s lessons. Countries will come to recognise that technological and viral threats will always be there. Countries must closely collaborate developing norms, monitoring and reporting systems and contingency plans.