The Future of the European Union and Implications for Transatlantic Relations in a post-COVID World

COVID-19 is exacerbating existing fissures in both European solidarity and transatlantic relations.  The well-publicized struggles within the European Union over economic, security, and migration policy highlight the limitations of supranational organizations in the 21st century. 

At the same time, Washington’s adoption of an “America First” foreign policy has led many on both sides of the Atlantic to question the long-standing paradigm of transatlantic relations.

• Looking past the pandemic, which emerging trends today lend insights into potential futures for the European Union and transatlantic relations? 
• Does a post-pandemic order look much like the current status quo, or do shifting power dynamics portend a systemic transformation?
• Which “pressure points” on the transatlantic alliance are being intensified by COVID-19? How are malign actors—namely Russia and China—leveraging today’s transatlantic discord to serve their own geopolitical interests?

Emerging from a turbulent decade, the European Union has weathered the Eurozone debt crisis, the United Kingdom’s BREXIT “divorce” from Brussels, Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, a resurgence of populism, and the continent’s worst migration crisis since World War II. 

COVID-19 has hit Europe hard, particularly Italy, Spain, the UK, and Belgium. Since the outbreak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a €750 billion ($825 billion) “recovery fund” aimed at injecting a much-needed economic stimulus into troubled Eurozone economies. While this represents an important step in the bloc’s pandemic recovery, several member states (Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden) do not support disbursing direct grants and loans to poorer EU members.  

SOURCES OF DISRUPTION

Against the backdrop of this inflection point, let us consider the following sources of geopolitical disruption to both the European Union (and by extension) to transatlantic relations: 

Economic solidarity – The extent to which EU Commission President von der Leyen’s recovery package is realized will set the tone for further economic integration as well as for political solidarity within the Eurozone. Absent the implementation of a comprehensive economic stimulus, Brussels risks repeating the mistakes of the past and leaving the door open to Eurosceptic populists. To be sure, China also seeks to exploit internal disagreements and sign more European nations onto its signature “Belt and Road Initiative.”  

Migration Policy – The EU’s failure to manage its refugee crisis results in uneven burden sharing across the bloc—countries on the EU periphery (e.g. Greece, Italy, and Spain) bear the brunt of refugee incursions. Populists leverage this issue to sow discord and create friction within societies, intensifying tensions between member states and the European Union bureaucracy.

5G Network Infrastructure – The EU will allow members to decide the extent to which Chinese firm Huawei can play a role in their 5G telecom networks. This decision creates tensions with Washington, which seeks to prevent China from gaining a foothold in Western telecommunication networks. Additionally, the presence of Huawei in European telecom networks places Europe at risk of exploitation and espionage by Chinese actors. 

Libya conflict – Russia and Turkey are now waging a proxy war in Libya; Turkey is supporting the Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, while Russia supports Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, a secularist. Individual EU member states are also supporting different sides in the conflict (e.g. Greece and France are backing Haftar). As the conflict intensifies, the continued involvement of external powers and conflicting policies among EU members challenges the EU’s (and NATO’s) ability to manage the conflict and its potentially de-stabilizing repercussions. 

 EU/Turkey Relations – Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy eludes a common EU response; earlier this year, waves of refugees poured into EU member Greece, encouraged and weaponized by the Turkish government. Turkish claims of energy rights in the Eastern Mediterranean place Ankara in direct conflict with EU members Cyprus and Greece as well as many Western energy companies that seek to do business in the region. Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems resulted in its expulsion from the F-35 program, exacerbating tensions between Washington, Ankara, and within NATO itself (of which Turkey is also a member).

Democratic backsliding? The governments of Hungary and Poland have enacted nationalistic policies that run counter to EU norms of the rule of law. In Hungary, President Viktor Orban took advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to enact legislation that suspends elections and allows him to remain in power indefinitely. Russian malign influence via social media and disinformation campaigns intensify populist movements and hinder efforts for further integration of the Western Balkans.

Change/Continuity in US administration? Many of the established norms in the transatlantic relationship have undergone significant upheaval during the past several years. While US military spending in Europe has actually increased since 2017, many European political leaders view the current administration as an impediment to transatlantic relations.  This is due to US criticism of NATO members’ financial commitments, US tariffs against European steel and aluminum producers, and the characterization of the EU as a “foe.” Thus, the results of the upcoming US presidential election will cast a wide shadow over the future of transatlantic relations.

POTENTIAL FUTURE A.

Continued Growth: European Disunion 2.0?

Partial re-openings to accommodate the summer tourist season lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 across the continent. The virus continues to return seasonally and extended social distancing contributes to a significant economic downturn for EU member states. In particular, southern European countries face massive unemployment. Brussels does push through an economic stimulus, but much smaller in scale than originally announced. Spain and Portugal sign on as members of the Belt and Road Initiative, while Huawei makes inroads in several major European telecom networks. In general, European governments make uncoordinated decisions on defense spending, retreating to national-level, versus European-scale mechanisms. Russian malign influence in the Balkans intensifies, complicating further regional integration efforts. New waves of refugees from North Africa (primarily Libya) exacerbate the EU’s fragile migration efforts. 

POTENTIAL FUTURE B.

Discipline: Austerity Redux and Supranational Medicine

The 2020s usher in a massive spike in unemployment across the continent; a failure to adopt best practices to combat COVID-19 means uneven levels of contagion throughout EU member states. Calls for a more federalized union gain traction and EU member states cede considerable authority to Brussels after the signing of the 2028 Berlin protocol. The EU Commission, encouraged by Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Denmark, enacts severe austerity measures aimed at reducing ballooning budget deficits. The Commission also implements a freeze on the free movement of peoples, with border controls between all EU states now the new norm. These are enforced by the new European Border Security Force, which now manages migration and border security efforts. EU member states must follow strict medical guidelines prescribed by the Commission or risk being cut off from the now critical EU bio-data network. 

POTENTIAL FUTURE C.

Systemic Collapse:  Revenge of the Nation-State

Recurring waves of COVID-19 coupled with a global depression have crippled the EU’s ability to  manage multiple crises. During the Trump administration’s second term, Washington exits the NATO alliance, citing a “lack of return on investment” to American taxpayers. Absent a US military presence in Europe, NATO ceases to exist outside of several office buildings in Belgium. Thousands of Russian speaking “ex-patriates” begin arriving in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which serve as a pre-cursor for eventual Russian military incursions to protect “Russian ethnic minorities.” Turkish military incursions into the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, coupled with increased Jihadist attacks in Spain from North Africa-based terror groups, are the catalyst for systemic collapse.  A lack of coordinated responses to the crisis by France and Germany fuels a crisis of legitimacy in the European Union structure itself. Several member states, engulfed in nationalistic fervor and facing mass civil unrest, withdraw from the European Union. What remains of the Union is a hollow shell of small, northern European countries unable to exercise control or influence on the international stage.

POTENTIAL FUTURE D.

Systemic Transformation:   Washington-Berlin-Ankara?

The third wave of COVID-19 in 2029 creates an opportunity for unprecedented transatlantic cooperation. The new American administration embarks on a major effort to rebuild US-European relations. The discovery of Chinese spyware and surveillance schemes in several 5G telecom networks crushes any remaining trust European actors have in cooperation with China. Leveraging this opportunity, the US establishes a bio-data sharing protocol with the EU, leading to a joint, US-EU health office that manages and updates populations’ bio-data stockpiles. A hard BREXIT in the early 2020s severely diminishes London’s role as an international power broker. Adjusting to new realities, Washington builds upon Germany’s leadership role in the EU and creates a new “special relationship,” in which Germany becomes America’s most significant political, economic, and security partner in Europe. Additionally, the defeat of Turkish President Erdogan’s AKP party in the early 2020s accompanies a “secular renewal” in Turkey that sees successive, Western-oriented governments come to power. The successful resolution of long-standing disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, combined with massive Western investments in the Turkish economy, lead to Turkey’s ascension as an EU member in the early 2030s. 

SUMMARY

Maintaining relationships with critical allies and partners is a linchpin to the United States’ national security strategy. In particular, the transatlantic alliance is vital to the maintenance of the liberal, international order. Expanding US economic and security relationships with the EU and NATO is key to ensuring global security. 

Russia and China are keenly aware of these realities and seek to drive wedges between the Western allies. The “pressure points” of populist movements (encouraged by Russian malign influence campaigns) and financial/tech investments from China (including the Belt and Road Initiative) challenge the current status quo. 

Additionally, disruptive conflicts on Europe’s periphery, (e.g. Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, Ukraine) relegated to the “back burner” by COVID-19, may morph into expanded geopolitical crises for the EU (and US) if left unchecked.  

***The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect official positions or statements of the Department of Defense or the Department of the Air Force.

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About the Author - Lt. Col. Jake Sotiriadis, Ph.D., is the Air Force’s senior futurist. His work spans the nexus of disruptive technology, geopolitical risk analysis, and strategic foresight analytics. He has served as advisor to the U.S. Ambassador to Germany, intelligence briefer to the Secretary and Chief of Staff of the Air Force, and Deputy Chief of the Weapons & Space Division at the NSA. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa and master’s degrees from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, and the Air Command and Staff College. He speaks German, Greek, and Spanish.