Future Energy Week conference and the 'grid of the future'

I've started Decarb Diary as a place to publicly capture and share what I learn as I enter into a discovery phase in climate, energy and decarbonisation, to find the most painful problems that I have the skills to help solve. My initial hypothesis is that my skills and experience learn towards helping the business sector. Learn more here.

Key take-outs this week

• There’s a significant challenge when we have too much energy in the system - particularly from rooftop solar which isn’t controlled by a single entity - which, ironically to me, can lead to widespread blackouts. Basically supply and demand needs to be equal every second of the day!
• Hydrogen isn’t just a form of useable energy, it can also be a store of energy - you can use excess energy in the grid to make hydrogen and then store than hydrogen for when you need it.
• SA Power Networks nails the broader energy challenge and calls it the ‘energy trilemma’ - how do we trade off sustainability, resilience and affordability.
• Carbon Dioxide Removal (aka Carbon Sequestration) removes CO2 from the atmosphere while Carbon Capture & Storage stops CO2 from entering the atmosphere.
• The Urban Heat Island Effect describes how densely populated areas are several degrees hotter than their surrounding areas largely due to manmade infrastructure and can be up to 12 degrees warmer.
• Heavy transport fuels (maritime and aviation) are hard to abate - they currently emit 2.5% of global CO2 emissions and only 0.5% of aviation fuel and 0.2% of maritime fuel is currently sustainable.
• Cement accounts for 8% of total global emissions (who’d’ve thunk it!), but a new startup has found a way to collect carbon emissions from exhaust fumes and embed them in concrete.
• While climate concern is growing, financial uncertainty prevents many consumers from taking sustainable action: 48% of respondents don't know where to begin their climate journey and 44% lack the financial tools and resources to take meaningful steps.
• The current grid has ‘inertia’ - large spinning energy generators, primarily coal-fired power plants, that help smooth out sudden disturbances or fluctuations in the grid. But renewable energy sources connect via inverters, which means we’ll need to find another way to help stabalise the grid (what is the 'grid of the future'?). By 2050, 1/3rd of energy generation and 2/3rds of storage will be ‘behind the meter’, ie in households.

New information this week (aka Contents):

• Notes from Future Energy Week in Adelaide (plus link to full separate doc)
• CO2 removal vs. Carbon Capture & Storage
• Solar radiation management
• What is the Urban Heat Island Effect?
• Heavy Transport fuels (maritime and aviation)
• New CO2-absorbing concrete
• Doconomy Climate-Finance Paradox report
• DERs and a Zero Emissions, Zero Inertia Future Grid
• Few more terms in the glossary

New Content:

• AEMO weekly newsletter, the Australian Energy Market Operator, who manage the National Electricity Market (NEM), among other networks.
• Podcast - Open Source Sustainability (GreenPlaces), interviews with sustainability leaders within business to understand their challenges and strategies in moving towards net zero.

Future Energy Week conference, Adelaide 29 Nov 2024

I attended this conference at the Tonsley Innovation Hub, and it was great to listen and meet people in the industry.

I’ve created a separate document to house all my notes for myself with more detail and screenshots.

Some interesting take-outs from the conference:

• Jamie, who did Welcome To Country, made an interesting point, that the country doesn’t belong to him or us, but we belong to it. I’ve heard this concept before around how humans think we need to adapt the environment to us; instead, how would things change if our perspective was that we are only part of the ecosystem, not its owner?
• SA is very well positioned to be a global leader in the clean energy transition - we’re one of only two jurisdictions around the world at Phase 5 renewables, we have a majority of key minerals like copper and magnetite, and we’re building a huge hydrogen plant next to a steel mill that is converting to a green steel producer.
• By 2050, Australia’s electricity demand will double, so to get to net zero by then we need 6x the capacity of what we have now AND change this mix towards renewables.
• As a rule of thumb, you need 3MW of variable renewable energy for every 1MW of extra load, which is due to the variable nature of it.
• Rooftop solar is now Australia’s biggest generator, but there isn’t a single contact point - you can’t just call someone and ask a question - which raises challenges.
• While gas is part of the problem, it’s also a critical part of the transition to be the ‘back-up’ when there isn’t enough renewable energy, but there are targets to have it as a blend with hydrogen by 2040.
• I’ve always thought of hydrogen as a form of useable energy, but it can also be thought of as a store of energy - it can effectively soak up any extra energy by using that energy to power the electrolyser and equipment to make hydrogen, which can then be stored as a liquid.
• There’s a significant challenge when we have too much energy in the system - particularly from rooftop solar which isn’t controlled by a single entity - it just produces energy regardless. Having too much energy and not enough demand is a challenge and can ironically lead to widespread blackouts.
• Demand-side flexibility is one way to deal with extra energy - by essentially incentivising people to shift their loads (energy use) to times when there is lower demand or higher generation (eg charging an EV during the day when the sun is shining, or overnight at off-peak times via a smart charger).
• SA Power Networks talk about the ‘energy trilemma’ - how do we trade off sustainability, resilience and affordability.
• Residential batteries have been leading the way in the battery market, but more recently commercial and industries (C&I) are really starting to increase.
• One speaker raised an interesting idea - could you make a house’s roof a separate title to that of the house so that you could effectively ‘sell’ or lease your roof for solar?

Carbon Sequestration vs. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) vs. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)...?

First of all, CDR and carbon sequestration are the same thing; sequestration is definitely a word I’d never heard of until starting to look into this sector.

CDR is the process of taking existing CO2 out of the air and storing it for a long time in rocks, vegetation, the ocean, or products, done via technology and biological, geological or artificial. methods.?

Biological carbon sequestration happens when CO2 is stored in the natural environment. This includes what are known as ‘carbon sinks’, such as forests, grasslands, soil, oceans and other bodies of water. This is also known as an ‘indirect’ or passive form of sequestration.

Geological carbon sequestration happens when CO2 is stored in places such as underground geological formations or rocks and includes things like graphene production, engineered molecules and carbon capture & storage techniques.

On the other hand, CCS or point source carbon capture, traps CO2 before it is released into the atmosphere, reducing emissions from power generation and industrial processes at the source.

In essence, CDR removes CO2 from the atmosphere while CCS stops CO2 from entering the atmosphere.

Read more here.

Solar radiation management

An interesting concept I came across. It’s also called solar (geo)engineering and refers to large-scale methods to reduce global warming by reflecting more sunlight back into space.?

I’m a bit of a space nerd too, so the space-based methods seem interesting. This is about reflecting or deflecting solar radiation from space, before it even reaches the atmosphere, and is commonly described as a space sunshade. Some examples are giant space mirrors, solar sails or using solar dust (either naturally available or by mining the moon to throw up dust into a path between the earth and sun)... these definitely sound like science fiction, and their main challenge is that they’re very expensive (USD 1+ trillion) and are very long-term solutions.

Urban Heat Island Effect

I’d actually looked at this before, but it came up again recently and it reminded me to add it in here. Up until this March year I ran a business ideas podcast called Idea Overflow and one of my topics in E18 was about this problem, and a business idea to help fix it

The ‘heat island effect’ is where densely populated areas (generally cities) are several degrees hotter than their surrounding areas largely due to manmade infrastructure like buildings and roads absorbing and re-emitting the sun’s heat. It can be up to 12 degrees warmer - in Adelaide it’s 8 degrees.

And the problem gets worse as cities expand often at the expense of greenery. Hotter weather also means more aircon, which means more electricity used and more emissions (if not on renewables).

A surprising stat was that there are 350,000 heat-related deaths globally per year, though not all due to the heat island effect specifically.

Some jurisdictions around the world are looking at initiatives such as trees and green spaces, green roofs, reflective “cool roof” coatings and “cool pavement”.

In the pod my idea was a business that plants trees in homes or businesses for free, and then generates and sells carbon credits for revenue. Benefits are that homes/businesses get free greenery and it reduces emissions and heat within cities.

But the numbers don’t really stack up - a young tree bought at $10 and absorbing 20kg CO2 per year would breakeven after 17 years.

Listen to the pod ep here (from about 9m 45s) or read the LinkedIn post here.

Heavy Transport fuels (maritime and aviation)

This comes from the Switched On podcast episode: Heavy Transport Maps Out a Low-Carbon Future.

I haven’t thought too much about heavy transport yet, and this is definitely one of those ‘hard to abate’ sectors. Here are some quotes I thought were interesting.

“So while electrification has been well established in other parts of the transport sector, like passenger vehicles, there are some limits to how far the technology can reach, and heavy transport is one of the tougher ones for it to decarbonize. Cleaning up aviation, maritime shipping, and long-haul trucking will likely require clean fuels, like biofuels, resulting in sustainable aviation fuels, or SAF for short, or ammonia, methanol, and synthetic fuels. This variety of options gives us a lot of pathways to a lower carbon, heavy transport sector, but it's also with its own challenges, including elevated prices and some confusion among investors as they struggle to understand exactly which technologies they should be putting their money behind.

“Right now, both shipping and aviation are around 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, but that share is set to rise, depending on the forecast you use, maybe double over the next 10 or 20 years. Right now, aviation uses about 93 billion gallons [351 billion Litres] of jet fuel a year, and 320 million [1.2 billion L] of that is SAF, so less than 0.5 percent.

On the shipping side, 84 billion gallons [318 million L] of marine fuel used, and for low carbon fuels, and that's being a bit generous with the definitions, it's about 130 million gallons [492 million L], so less than 0.2 percent. So a lot of work to do, but luckily, there's a lot of people on the case.”

Also found a related article about how ‘These fuel producers are leading the switch to zero-emission fuels in the shipping industry’. Some key points:

• Around 80% of goods are moved by ship globally
• Shipping is responsible for 2-3% of global emissions
• Shipping produces more than 1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per year
• Traditional ship fuel is more toxic than passenger transport type fuel
• There are a wide variety of potential options (see image below)
• Hydrogen and synthetic fuels appear to be one of the more promising options and could cut emission by 80-100%

New CO2-absorbing concrete

An interesting concept - a Melbourne startup, Kapture , has unveiled technology to collect carbon emissions from exhaust fumes and embed them in concrete.?

Their core technology can be applied to all combustion sources without reducing their efficiency, and for example, can be retrofitted to the exhaust of diesel generators, capturing the CO2 emissions before they’re emitted into the atmosphere.

And then the byproduct of those captured emissions can be used as a replacement for Portland cement, a key ingredient in concrete and a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in its own right.

Here are some other stats:

• Amazingly, cement accounts for 8% of total global emissions!
• Cement production emitted 4.7 tonnes of CO2in FY21, and around 60% of those were process emissions
• For every ton of solvent Kapture uses, it offsets 0.7-1.2 tons of CO2 from being released

Read the article here.

Doconomy Climate-Finance Paradox report - key insights

After looking at Doconomy last week I also came across their most recent (Nov 2024) report that had some interesting insights.

This, plus a lot of what else I’m reading, makes it quite clear that the barriers of upfront costs and lack of knowledge (and fragmented information) are still greater than people’s aspirational needs to go sustainable.

• While climate concern is growing across all generations, financial uncertainty prevents many consumers from taking sustainable action. 48% of respondents don't know where to begin their climate journey and 44% lack the financial tools and resources to take meaningful steps. Gen Z exhibits the highest level of climate concern and financial engagement with sustainability.?
• Public trust in governments and financial institutions to address climate change is low. Less than half of respondents believe their governments are taking meaningful steps to address climate change, and only a third trust financial institutions to do so.?
• The rising cost of living forces consumers to prioritise immediate financial needs over sustainable choices. 68% of respondents in the EU and US stated that increasing prices prevent them from prioritizing sustainable living. Many perceive sustainable products and services as unaffordable, further inhibiting action.
• Consumers want their banks to help them save money, set goals for sustainable finances, and make more sustainable everyday purchases. They are also interested in tools that help them understand the environmental impact of their spending and calculate the carbon footprint of their purchases..
• The report outlines a roadmap for banks to integrate sustainability into their core services:
• The report concludes that banks have a crucial opportunity, and arguably an obligation, to transform this moment of challenge into one of positive change. By leveraging existing technology and responding to clear consumer demand within a supportive regulatory environment, banks can become key drivers of sustainable action.

Full report can be downloaded here (details for download required).

DERs and a Zero Emissions, Zero Inertia Future Grid

From the Energy Insiders podcast episode Getting the best out of the grid.

Here are some of the interesting points I noted down:

• By 2050, 1/3rd of energy generation and 2/3rds of storage will be ‘behind the meter’, ie in households (although that’s probably still underestimated)
• How do we give those DERs priority in planning and market design.
• The other part of the equation is the regulated parts of the bill - ie all those cost elements that are part of what the end consumer pays.
• In remote/rural areas, getting power there is less cost efficient - Western Pioneer (one of the foremost thinkers of future networks in an age when DERs are accessible), say that 52% of their line length services just 3% of their customer base. It’s not economic so they’re putting in standalone power systems and microgrids and taking out the SWER lines to those communities (SWER - refer Glossary)
• In Australia we have natural monopolies for transmission and distribution, but in the UK independent distribution companies are allowed by law and are currently providing 80% of new residential connections and are allowing DERs (their base is 1.5M at the moment)
• The economic value of DERs is estimated at $19bn net present value by 2040 across the network side of things and avoided cost of centralised generation and storage.

They also reference a paper done by Tim Flannigan about zero emissions and zero inertia. It was written in 2018 for the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), but it’s an interesting look at why we need to think about a ‘grid of the future’.

In the traditional power grid you have large spinning energy generators, primarily coal-fired power plants. Their inertia helps smooth out sudden disturbances or fluctuations in the grid.

But renewable energy sources are connected to the grid via inverters and don’t possess the same inertial properties as spinning generators. As more renewables come online, the overall inertia in the National Energy Market (NEM) is declining, which means we’ll need to find another way to help stabalise the grid.

This report refers to “zero inertia”, which is the future scenario where there are no spinning generators. However it says it’ll be a problem in the transition, but will eventually become irrelevant because inverter-based resources can emulate inertia through a concept called ‘virtual inertia’, can react much faster to disturbances, and we’ll have a more distributed network with smaller generators.

I thought this image was interesting about what a next gen grid would look like:

Glossary

• ECA = Emissions Control Areas, sea areas in which stricter controls were established to minimize airborne emissions from ships (read more)
• ECA also = Economics of Climate Adapation, a framework that provides decision makers with information about potential climate-related damage to their environment, economies and societies. (read more)
• EEC = Energy Management Fundamentals, Australian education body, they offer a free course
• CDR = Carbon Dioxide Removal, aka Carbon Sequestration
• Carbon sinks - refers to biological carbon sequestration methods
• SWET = single wire earth return, is a single-wire transmission line which supplies single-phase electric power from an electrical grid to remote areas at lowest cost. The earth (or sometimes a body of water) is used as the return path for the current, to avoid the need for a second wire (or neutral wire) to act as a return path.

I encourage you to reach out if:

• I've said something wrong or partially wrong,
• there's an additional thing I should know about something,
• you think it would be valuable to talk to you, or
• you know someone I should talk to!

Cheers,

Dan