Future Energy Scenarios: NG ESO on what it will take to get Great Britain to Net Zero by 2050.

National Grid (NG) ESO has published its Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2020 report. It is well worth a read for those interested in the future of our energy system, and if, and how, Great Britain (GB) can transition to Net Zero.  

NG ESO has identified four FES which they deem to be realistic and which, importantly, all have Net Zero by 2050 at their core. According to the report, reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable although, notably, one of the scenarios identified fails to reach that target. 

The FES differ along axis of "speed of decarbonisation" and "level of societal change" which result in the following scenarios:

·        Steady Progression. This FES is characterised by the slowest credible decarbonisation, minimal societal change and decarbonisation in power and transport but not heat. In this scenario GB will fail to achieve Net Zero by 2050. In 2050 GB will continue to emit 258 MtCO2e which equates to a 68% reduction compared to the level in 1990.

·        Consumer Transformation. This FES is characterised by a high level of societal change including a move to electrified heating, high energy efficiency and demand side flexibility. In this scenario GB will achieve Net Zero carbon emissions in 2050. 

·        System Transformation. This FES is characterised by increased decarbonisation including using hydrogen for heating and supply side flexibility. Decarbonisation is the focus as in this FES consumers are less likely to change behaviour. In this scenario GB will also achieve Net Zero carbon emissions in 2050.

·        Leading the Way. This FES is characterised by the fastest credible decarbonisation of all sectors, significant lifestyle changes by consumers and a mixture of hydrogen and electrification for heating. In this most ambitious of scenarios, NG ESO considers GB could credibly achieve Net Zero carbon emissions in 2048. 

The scale and speed of societal change and decarbonisation is explored across the four FES for topics such as industrial and commercial use, residential and transport. NG ESO also, as expected, considers the "system view" including the anticipated energy mix and safeguarding system stability.

Amongst many others, the following interesting points can be taken away from the report:

·        Across the FES, NG ESO makes clear that immediate action across technologies, policy and engagement with consumers is required to meet Net Zero.

·        Net Zero is not considered possible without the deployment of hydrogen and CCS technology. 

·        Hydrogen production through electrolysis can facilitate increased market penetration of wind and solar generation without adding to peak electricity demand.

·        Electricity generation capacity grows in all scenarios. At least 40 GW of new capacity must be connected to the electricity system in the next ten years. In the Consumer Transformation scenario GB must have 2.8 times the total generation capacity of today by 2050. 

·        To achieve Net Zero there must not be any unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050. Wind power, solar, nuclear and BECCS must take up the mantle.

·        For transport, even in the slowest decarbonising scenario there will be no new cars sold with an internal combustion engine after 2040. Larger vehicles, HGVs and the shipping industry will use hydrogen and a combination of biofuels in the FES. Aviation will be reliant on biofuels and negative emissions elsewhere to achieve Net Zero. 

Overall the report is a clear call to Government, industry and consumers that significant changes are required across all sectors and those changes are required quickly. As NG ESO note:

"The economics of energy supply and demand fundamentally shift in a net zero world. Markets must evolve to provide incentives for investment in flexibility and zero carbon generation."

One major and important caveat to the FES report is that an analysis of the impact of Covid-19 has not been included. Given the current uncertainty and lack of evidence NG ESO intends to discuss the impact of the pandemic with stakeholders later this year, and it will feature in the FES 2021 report.