The Future of Energy

The future of energy is uncertain. The level of uncertainty results from the numerous, diversified yet interconnected nature of energy drivers. Individual drivers' complex interactions and collective influences dictate current and future energy trends.

The most relevant global energy driver is climate change. According to the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report, 2050 is the time limit for attaining net-zero emissions. This timeline is essential to limit global warming to well below 1.5 ?C to ensure reduced impacts on human health, biodiversity, earth's ecosystem and wellbeing. Thus, the energy of the future has to be green. Current CO2 emissions from gas, coal and oil are 31.5 Gt (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2021). This estimate is outrageous, especially because, as of November 2021, 194 states and the EU have signed the 2015 Paris Agreement on reducing emissions according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) database.

The lag in implementation is due to national and country-specific energy drivers. Countries with high deposits of fossil natural resources such as coal, gas and oil are heavily biased to fossil due to economics of scale, ease of access and already developed technologies. The top five countries in this category include China, India, the U.S.A, Japan and South Korea (NS Energy, 2021). These countries are responsible for more than three-quarters of the world's coal-fired electricity at 6,626 TWh (Global Electricity Review, 2021).

Furthermore, the emerging alternate energy generation technologies and the unit cost is the third significant driver for the future of energy. It is worthy of note that unexpected growth has been recorded in renewable energy technologies, including bioenergy for power, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind power technologies. In the last ten years, solar and wind power technologies have increased capacity to new records of 1,225 GW. Wind energy has grown four-folds, and solar has grown 17-fold to a total of 773 GW and 714 GW, respectively (IRENA, 2021). However, it is unclear if the record energy contributions from wind and solar in 2020 are sustainable. The 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic is credited for coal's record drop of 4%, which is still minuscule compared to the 14% yearly drop required for the decade.

Energy storage is a significant driver for delivering a green energy future. According to the IEA's 'Net-Zero 2050 pathway' scenario from their 2020 World Energy Outlook, the world needs approximately 10,000 gigawatt-hour batteries and other energy storage forms to meet sustainable energy goals. The quantity of batteries required for the year 2040 is fifty times the size of the current market, and the prices of unit cells are still very high.

Summarily, the future of energy will depend on geography, demography, politics, and a combination of individual drivers specific to a state, country, region, or continent. However, from a global perspective, energy progress towards decarbonization is nowhere near fast enough. A green future requires enough clean energy to replace fossils in powering the global economy (Dave Jones, 2021).

REFERENCES

Allen, M., Dube, O.P., Solecki, W., Aragón-Durand, F., Cramer, W., Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Mahowald, N. and Mulugetta, Y., 2018. Global warming of 1.5° C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty.

IEA (2021), Global Energy Review 2021, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2021

Jones, D., 2021. Global electricity review 2021.