FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) - IT'S GOTTA BE THE BATTERIES, RIGHT ??

The Battery

Automakers' Electric Vehicle (EV) battery production struggles continue to throw a wrench into their ability to meet President Joe Biden's official goal for half of all new cars sold in the United States to be electric by 2030.

Ford plans to sell 2 million EVs a year by 2026. GM has plans for 30 electric models with a North American production capacity of 1 million by 2025. Toyota Motor Co. has an annual target of 3.5 million by 2030. BMW AG aims to make at least half of its sales fully electric by 2030. Volkswagen is aiming for 70% of sales in Europe and 50% in China and the United States to be electric by 2030.

Unfortunately, at present there aren't enough batteries for automakers to make a full transition to EV. Supply side bottlenecks are a real challenge. It is also projected that the industry may face a shortage of lithium and cobalt as early as 2025 if enough isn't invested in production.

Many first-generation lithium-ion batteries required replacement due the risk of battery fires. Automakers have switched to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries which are cheaper, more reliable and don't catch fire. The other option is to utilize lithium iron manganese phosphate (LMFP) batteries that have approximately 26% higher density than LFP batteries and cost about 5% less to manufacture.

Automakers threated by possible shortages of lithium and cobalt for electric car batteries has caused them to race to lock in supplies due to politically and environmentally fraught competition from China to Nevada to Chile. China has gone straight to the source in buying stakes in the once-obscure "white gold" lithium miners to address the projected shortage in EV battery supplies. Indonesia, Chile and Zimbabwe are trying to maximize their return on deposits of lithium, cobalt and nickel by requiring miners to invest in refining and processing before they export. Miners are reluctant to go all out on lithium until they are sure the industry won't switch batteries made with other metals. Smaller brands without their own lithium supply might be squeezed out, forced to pay more, thus threatening their existence. Mass-market players that don't get their lithium strategy right will be at a disadvantage.

Developing lithium sources is a yearlong process. Mines that came online in 2010-2019 took an average of more than 16 years from discovery to the start of production. Long lead times like this raise questions about our ability to ramp up production. Lack of refining capacity to purify raw lithium into battery material is another bottleneck that we face. Therefore, the choke point is much more on refining capacity than it is on mining, said by Telsa Inc. CEO Elon Musk in an April conference call with reporters. Tesla just broke ground in Texas recently for a lithium refinery that should produce enough lithium for 1 million vehicles per year by 2025.

Securing these metals should not come as a sacrifice to the environment. About two-thirds of the world's lithium comes from mines, which involves crushing rocks and using acids to extract metals, leaving a toxic heap of chemical-laced tailings. The rest is extracted from salt lakes and from salt flats called salars in Chile and Bolivia, which require vast evaporation ponds.

Worldwide lithium resources are estimated at 80 million tons. Bolivia is the biggest at 21 million tons, followed by Australia with 17 million tons, Chile with 9 million tons, China with 4.5 million tons and the United States with 1 million tons.

EV Charging

However, long charging times and a lack of public chargers will keep people from buying electric cars even if we are able to address the electric battery issues previously mentioned. The way that we refuel our EVs requires our attention as well, requiring a fundamental overhaul to make owning an EV more convenient. Battery swapping and wireless EV charging is looked at as possible solutions.

Instead of spending precious time waiting around to recharge a battery what if you could change it out for a fresh battery pack and be back on your way in minutes? Efforts are currently in place in California, already in the hands of some Uber drivers, with a focus on taxi, delivery and car-rental fleets to make this a reality.

A driver pulls into a stall, their vehicle is lifted up and your depleted pack is plucked out and replaced with a fully charged one in minutes. Typical fast-charging stations provide a solid charge in 30 minutes to an hour or more. Of course, the EV would need to be outfitted with removable battery packs. Partnerships with the automakers would need to be accomplished in order for this to work.

China has sold cars with swappable batteries for years while building out the infrastructure to support this. This is probably a long way off from happening in the US.

In Israel the path toward an EV wireless recharge while moving is underway. Initial projects has brought wireless charging to public buses, vehicles with predictable routes and depots.

Wireless charging could also solve some of the biggest challenges stunting EV ownership growth - insufficient charging infrastructure, limited driving range and reliance on large/expensive batteries.

With electrified wireless bus stops, parking spots and streets, EVs could be charged all of the time without giving it much thought.

There is currently an R&D partnership with Toyota to electrify roadways in Israel. One mile of road can be constructed overnight, without requiring you to rip up an entire street. Just dig a trench three inches deep and install charging coils to charge your EV while on the move.

All the solutions that we can gather will be needed to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. I feel that wireless charging will someday be our dominant source for EV charging, minimizing construction and maintenance costs associated with the current preferred methods of EV charging.