The Future of Clean Energy Technology (Net-zero Emissions Technology) - Part 2

Electrification

A central pillar of the clean energy transition in the Sustainable Development Scenario is the acceleration of the electrification of the world economy. The share of electricity in final energy uses has been growing steadily for decades. In the period 1990-2019, global annual electricity demand grew on average by 3.0%, an average annual increase roughly equivalent to the total amount of electricity generated annually in Italy and Sweden combined. This trend continues in the Sustainable Development Scenario, driven by growing demand for electrical appliances and also by an expansion of electricity into new sectors, which reflects the environmental and practical advantages of electricity over other forms of energy in final applications. Final electricity demand expands by around 30 000 TWh through to 2070, which is around 6 000 TWh (or 25%) more than in the Stated Policies Scenario, and equivalent to around 135% of current consumption. The share of electricity in the global final energy demand grows from 19% today to 47% in 2070, compared with just 28% in the Stated Policies Scenario.

Global CO2 emissions reductions from electrification by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario 2030 to 2070 :-

Electrification accounts for almost 30% of the annual CO2 emissions savings in the Sustainable Development Scenario in 2070, with industry and transport making the biggest contributions.

The accelerated electrification of end-use sectors and the decarbonization of power generation are essential to achieving net-zero CO2 emissions. In the low-carbon electricity value chain, several technologies have reached maturity, such as hydropower and electric trains. In end-use sectors, some technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps are commercially available, but innovation remains an important issue: their ability to expand their markets depends on further technology innovation to improve performance and reduce costs.

Technology readiness level of technologies along the low-carbon electricity value chain :-

Carbon capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)

Not all parts of the CO2 value chain are operating at commercial scale today: many of the relevant technologies are still at the demonstration and the large prototype stage.

Technology readiness level of technologies along the CO2 value chain :-

The capture, transport and utilization or storage of CO2 emissions as a successful  decarbonization strategy hinges on the commercial availability of technologies at each stage of the process as well as on the development and expansion of CO2 transport and storage networks on a sizeable scale.

Hydrogen and Hydrogen-based Fuels

Transport accounts for 70% of the use of these fuels in 2070, which meet significant shares of the final energy demand for different transport modes: 52% for shipping, 40% for aviation and a third and road transport. Within road transport, hydrogen and fuel cells become important for decarbonizing trucks. 

Industry accounts for approaching 20% of the use of these fuels in 2070, with the introduction of hydrogen as a reducing agent in steel production being the main driver for growth in industrial hydrogen demand. Almost 15% of final energy demand in the iron and steel sector is linked to hydrogen use, and more than a quarter of global primary steel production in 2070 is based on the electrolytic hydrogen-based direct reduction technology route. Hydrogen remains also an important feedstock in the chemical industry for the production of ammonia and methanol, accounting for a fifth of the energy demand in this industry.

Global CO2 emissions reductions from hydrogen by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2030 to 2070 :-

Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels account for 8% of the annual CO2 emissions savings in the Sustainable Development Scenario in 2070, with transport making the biggest contributions.

Technology readiness level of technologies along the low-carbon hydrogen value chain :

Not all steps of the low-carbon hydrogen value chain are operating at commercial scale today: the majority of demand technologies are only at the demonstration or prototype stage.

Bioenergy

Around 60% of final bioenergy use (and 40% of primary bioenergy use) is today in the form of the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking in emerging economies, which has negative impacts on human health through indoor air pollution and harmful social, economic and environmental consequences. The provision of clean cooking fuels by 2030 is one of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Meeting this goal entails a reduction in traditional use of solid biomass by almost 90% over the next 10 years, which requires a steady increase in the efficient use of biomass in solid, liquid or gaseous forms (e.g. modern cooking stoves, space heating boilers): in the Sustainable Development Scenario, the efficient use of biomass accounts for 13% of total buildings energy needs in 2070.

The bulk of bioenergy use in 2070 is for making transport biofuels and for power and heat generation – in both cases much of it with CCUS. The combination of bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage removes CO2 from the natural carbon cycle, creating negative emissions: in the Sustainable Development Scenario, these negative emissions enable the goal of net-zero emissions to be reached in 2070.

The contribution of bioenergy to reducing CO2 emissions is particularly important where direct electrification is difficult. An important advantage of bioenergy is that it can be converted into energy forms that are compatible with existing energy technologies that rely on the combustion of fossil fuels: it can be used as feedstock in the chemicals industry and it can be used in existing vehicle fueling networks and gas pipelines, for example in the form of biomass-to-liquid (BTL) thermochemically produced fuels, hydrotreated vegetable oil or biomethane.

Global CO2 reductions from bioenergy use in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario, 2030 to 2070 :-

Bioenergy contributes one-fifth of the total annual CO2 reductions in 2070 in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the Stated Policies Scenario, with the reductions mostly occurring in power, followed by transport and industry.

Biofuels is the bioenergy subsector hit the hardest by the Covid-19 crisis. Reduced fuel demand from decreased travel coupled with falling oil prices has led to reduced liquid biofuels production and some plant closures (World Bioenergy Association, 2020). Though demand for solid biomass has generally remained steady, many pellet producers in Europe have experienced reduced demand and disrupted supply chains 

Technology readiness level of technologies along the bioenergy value chain :-

Not all steps of the bioenergy value chain are operating at commercial scale today, with several biofuels production technologies and end-use applications still in the demonstration phase.