The Future of Canada's Trade Strategy: Diversifying Towards Africa

In light of the escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States, it is imperative that we confront a difficult yet undeniable truth: the future of Canada’s economic prosperity is no longer solely tied to our southern neighbour. For decades, Canadian economists have warned of the dangers of over-reliance on the American market, and now the consequences are unfolding before our eyes. President Trump's decision to impose tariffs is not merely a temporary setback but a harsh, lasting reminder of the vulnerability embedded in a trade relationship that has, until now, been too comfortable and too one-dimensional.

It is time for us to face the reality that Canada's current trade strategy, one heavily reliant on the U.S. as our primary partner, is not just outdated; it is dangerous. The global economic landscape is shifting rapidly, and Africa represents a natural, strategic pivot that Canada can no longer afford to ignore. It is no longer a matter of "if" but "when" Africa will become central to Canada's trade success narrative. The question for policymakers is whether we will lead in this inevitable shift or fall behind.

Canada’s economy, already shrinking under the weight of global disruptions, faces mounting risks if we continue to prioritize a single trade partner. The US-Canada trade relationship, once a pillar of Canadian prosperity, has now become a precarious one. With the American economy increasingly inward-facing and unpredictable, Canada's reliance on the U.S. risks exacerbating an already tenuous economic position. This is not merely a theoretical concern; it is a very real scenario where our businesses are left scrambling for alternative markets while our workforce continues to age and productivity levels stagnate.

If Canada does not pivot now, we will find ourselves not only more vulnerable to external shocks but also less competitive on the global stage. We are already seeing the consequences of a shrinking workforce, particularly as baby boomers retire in large numbers and productivity growth continues to stagnate. The economic hole left by a diminished labor force will only deepen unless we seize new opportunities abroad, opportunities that offer not just immediate relief but long-term stability.

Consider the current trajectory: fewer young workers entering the labor market, productivity growth falling behind other advanced economies, and a trade war that is only accelerating the strain on Canadian businesses. If we do not diversify our trade relationships, particularly with fast-growing regions like Africa, we risk not just stagnation but decline. The Canadian economy will struggle to adapt to these changes, and without access to new markets, we will become a bystander in a global economy that is increasingly centred on emerging economies.

The tariffs imposed by President Trump serve as a stark reminder that relying on a single, volatile partner leaves Canada vulnerable to abrupt shifts in policy and economic power. In contrast, Africa represents a dynamic and diverse set of economies that, with proper engagement, can offer Canada not just an escape from these uncertainties but a robust pathway to economic growth and innovation.

The decisions we make now will determine whether we position Canada for future success or doom ourselves to a prolonged period of stagnation. We cannot afford to sit on the sidelines any longer. The future of our economy, our standard of living, our competitiveness, and our resilience in the face of global disruption, requires that we embrace diversification, and that means turning to Africa as a central pillar of Canada's economic strategy.

I urge policymakers and leaders, to continue to take this challenge seriously. The African continent is more than an alternative market; it is the essential market for Canada’s future.

Templar K. , Senior Fellow, Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, for the Canadian Centre for African Affairs and Policy Research